Future of cds

[connoisseur series500]

I would like to ask you all what might be the next popular form for recorded music. We've gone from vinyl to cassette (forget 8-track!) to cds. What's next?

The second part of my question would be what is likely to happen to our cd collections in terms of value once the next popular form takes hold of the consumers. Vinyl has retained value while cassettes are virtually worthless. Which path would the cd likely to follow: that of vinyl or that of cassette (in terms of antique value?)

[Use3D]

Well I think the next step is solid state, with no moving parts to wear out. Just plug in a cartridge and the all the music is there at maximum quatily. They'd be expensive, as chips, boards and housing would cost more.

As with any format before, CDs will still be around for a while, they have many more uses then just music.

[Jazzmoose]

I have no idea what the "next step" will be, but as for the future worth of CDs, my guess is that the obscure recordings will have value, but I don't see any passion for the format as a whole existing the way it does for vinyl today.

[JohnJ]

I think CD's will be around for a very long time, given how much money most people already have invested in this format. I don't really see anything replacing them in the near future. I see no reason why the rarer CD's should not increase in value and become collectors items, just look at the case of OOP Mosaic sets. Also, looking at eBay, it seems to me that the vast majority of vinyl today sells for very low prices, often significantly cheaper than the CD equivalent.

[shrugs]

Also, looking at eBay, it seems to me that the vast majority of vinyl today sells for very low prices, often significantly cheaper than the CD equivalent.

Look again.

Pay particular attention to original pressings. Blue Note,Prestige, Riverside, Contemporary, Tampa, Decca SXL WB, Living Stereo, London FFSS BlueBack.

But if you are referring to Mosaic lp vs cd prices, it is true that a lot of times the cd sets can go for a lot more. I seem to remember a Count Basie lp set going for less than half of what the cd set went for. In fact, for the price of the cd set, the buyer could have bought the l pset and a decent turntable.

[shrugs]

I think cd's will be around for a long time as well but I also know people who just get a seperate computer for mp3's and download everything. Not sure how they play them but I know a few just have their computer speakers and are happy with that. I see this a logical next step for a lot of people. Maybe not a seperate computer but a seperate hard drive with just music files.

That said, the true fanatics will continue to buy cd's.

[DrJ]

I think the future dominant media format is...no dominant format. Vinyl continues a resurgence among the faithful...CDs are going strong...SACD and DVD-A are making inroads but still mostly with the audiophiles...some out there like MP3...and there will most certainly be new things coming down the pipe, but the thing is that the sonic improvements will be less and less readily apparent to someone listening through car stereos and boom boxes and low-end home stereo setups. So all formats will continue to thrive for a while.

While the market shares may change over the next few decades, I honestly don't think we'll see a wholesale format changeover a la the switch to CDs for some time, maybe another 50 years or more, because while standard CD sound (and MP3 sound definitely) may have some limitations, they are undeniably convenient and the average person really doesn't care that much about great sound quality, they want something easy to store, durable, and relatively inexpensive.

[Guest Mnytime]

I see DVD-A going the way of Beta. Not that DVD-A is superior to SACD the way Beta was to VHS.

Verve and Blue Note are putting out SACDs. This after only a little less than 2 years ago they where saying they where not going to put out a SACD or DVD-A. Not until they could tell for sure which of theset two formats would be the one to support.

According to Mark at Verve (who I know isn't exactly the best source) when asked between the two if forced to pick at the time that Verve was leaning towards DVD-A. 2 Years later and they did a 180 and came out with SACDs instead.

Two years ago there was like 200 SACDs mostly from Sony and I think a couple DVD-As. Now there are 1202 SACDs by 150 labels. The Stones and Pink Floyd chose SACDs over DVD-As. I think that was a major decision for SACDs.

Edited June 14, 2003 by Mnytime

[Claude]

I think CDs will still be the dominant music medium for the next 10 years at least. That includes SACD, which is just a ... Super-CD

The other important form of music distribution will be online downloads. Currently downloadable music is of lower audio quality, but that may change in the future, as internet connections get faster. It has many advantages for the industry (no physical stocks to be managed, no duplication costs) and for the consumer (lower price if cost reductions are submitted to the buyer, instant availability, more music available as albums won't "need" to go OOP).

Downloadable music may change the music industry dramatically not only on the distribution side but also on the production side. Musicians could frequently release (and record) individual songs instead of a 10-song album once a year.

So I don't think there is a place for another form of physical medium (solid state, data-chips). People will either stick to CDs (which most users still find technologically up-to-date) or buy music without a medium.

Edited June 14, 2003 by Claude

[Alexander]

My hope is that downloading will revitalize the market for singles. This once proud format went the way of the Dodo with casettes and CDs, but I can really see people downloading (especially at a .99 price point) the latest singles off the net, and then going out to buy the album. It would be a nice way for downloading and traditional music sales to peacefully co-exist.

[John L]

I expect that a new line of either CDs or something else will hold 1000s of times more wave files than the current product. Hard drives on home computers will become so big that we will be able to keep our entire collections there, while buying, selling, and trading through Internet.

[BeBop]

I suspect CDs will be with us for quite some time. The advantage they have over LPs and cassettes is that they are digital, so it's more likely that future physical formats or encoding schema can be made backward-compatible to the CD - perhaps with an external data retrieval device (e.g., CD transport).

Yes, I believe (sadly) that the world of data storage is moving digital, and recorded music is just another data storage exercise.

Long live analog!

[Guest GregM]

When is the future? Over the next few years we will see SACD making steady gains as some have said above. Add OJC to the labels now making their own SACDs--see Alan Lankin's website, and he lists their first releases (this August I believe) in the hybrid SACD format. I think Apple will do ok with its iTunes biz, but that isn't for serious listening. For the foreseeable future, I think that's it. For the distant future, who knows or cares. I'll have too many SACDs, CDs and LPs to worry about a new format.

[mgraham333]

My thought (or maybe hope) is that the CD format will be around for quite some time. At 21 years of age, it's still going strong. It's dynamic range exceed the limits of human hearing - so improvements in the technology are largely academic.

(INSERT fanatical SACD/DVD-A argument here)

People have a lot invested in the format. Home equipment, car, portable, and of course HUGE collections. And with key CD patents expired or expiring CD technology will only get cheaper (for manufacturers that is...the records companies will still keep CD prices artificially high through anti-competitive policies such as "minimum advertised price").

One of the potential successors, SACD, has incorporated backwards compatibilty with the CD format. I really like that, and will probably get the Sony DVP-NC685V player when it's released.

But I'll tell you the biggest barrier to any other format knocking CD from it's perch.

It's corporate greed (via format wars & copyright issues).

Every manufacturer wants it's proprietary format to become the standard so that it can charge licensing fees and make money off EVERY unit sold. Format wars make the consumer wary of what to buy. Low sales delays mass production (which is what allows prices to come down - spurring demand).

Another factor is the record companies/copyright holders. For a new format to take off, there has to be a wide variety of content to support it. The music industry cannot get over their fear of Napster and file sharing and are reluctant to embrace any new format, especially one with superior digital technology. Which is why SACD is hobbled by analog connections. The music industry is now dictating to the manufacturers what capabilities can go into new products.

Granted new format successes are not without recent precedent. Take DVD. Once hollywood got over it's initial paranoia (which at the time was at a far lower level than in the music industry) and embraced the format - it took off. In fact, I believe DVD was adopted faster than any other consumer technology.

I am just not seeing the level of cooperation among the key players (record companies and hardware manufacturers) that it will take to have a new "standard" anytime soon.

There is a glimmer of hope. There are some nice SACDs coming out and with the backwards compatibility and multi-purpose players such as the upcoming Sony DVP-NC685V - cautious, second generation adopters, like me will get a chance to fill in the blank:

vinyl, 8-track, cassette, CD, *, _______

* DAT, MD, DCC: mostly user recordable formats that never made it to pre-recorded mass distribution

I know someone will tag me for leaving out reel-to-reel, but frankly I never had any experience with that and by this time I'm tired of my own post so........THE END.

Edited June 25, 2003 by mgraham333

[mgraham333]

OK, so I wasn't quite done.....

File under "the future is now" cateory:

Digital music server

This is digital done right. The technical specs are phenomenal. It's got everything I want, and something I don't...an insance price tag.

[chris]

I don't see the CD going anywhere, though I think SACD will continue to grow-- slowly. MP3 will remain big in the portable consumer market, and even in the home audio market I bet, since "kids these days" tend to get crappy MP3s and burn CDs with them and be quite happy...

Digital serving is a fine idea, but if I am going to invest in something like that, I want quality. And quality means uncompressed. And uncompressed, or at least lossless compression, means that even a 960gb model isn't going to be big enough for my collection soon, and I am not the obsessive many other people are-- and have to be to invest that kind of money!

I do serious listening on my home hi-fi system (well, mid-fi-- total cost was under 5000 for the system), active listening on a sony MP3 CD player or a Nomad RIO mp3 player, and hi-fi portable with a sony cdp, dedicated amp, and etys.

I'm still trying to save enough to afford a decent turntable and then I can listen to some of the vinyl I've picked up here and there...

[Guest GregM]

It's really too bad that consumers, the record industry and electronics manufacturers are so disjointed that they can't get together behind a format and aggressively support it. SACD is the obvious choice, but still people whine about it.

[Altoona]

Well, I think that even the early SACD adopters (like me, I've owned an SACD player since January, 2000) have something to whine about with the announcement of SACD II. From what I've read, SACD II is an attempt to make the format more DVD-A-like by adding the visuals and (perhaps) requiring the use of a monitor to set up the system for playback.

Adding injury to insult, it doesn't look like the new format will be backwards compatible with existing players, so if you have a player currently it's likely that you'll be forced to buy another one before existing software is completely phased out.

I think this spells the end, too, of both stereo and multi-channel playback formats on a single disk.

You can read all about SACD II here:

http://www.highfidelityreview.com/news/new...number=19363192

[shrugs]

Are you trying to stir the pot? Do you really see every label that puts out SACD's converting to this?

[connoisseur series500]

My thought (or maybe hope) is that the CD format will be around for quite some time. At 21 years of age, it's still going strong. It's dynamic range exceed the limits of human hearing - so improvements in the technology are largely academic.

(INSERT fanatical SACD/DVD-A argument here)

People have a lot invested in the format. Home equipment, car, portable, and of course HUGE collections. And with key CD patents expired or expiring CD technology will only get cheaper (for manufacturers that is...the records companies will still keep CD prices artificially high through anti-competitive policies such as "minimum advertised price").

One of the potential successors, SACD, has incorporated backwards compatibilty with the CD format. I really like that, and will probably get the Sony DVP-NC685V player when it's released.

But I'll tell you the biggest barrier to any other format knocking CD from it's perch.

It's corporate greed (via format wars & copyright issues).

Every manufacturer wants it's proprietary format to become the standard so that it can charge licensing fees and make money off EVERY unit sold. Format wars make the consumer wary of what to buy. Low sales delays mass production (which is what allows prices to come down - spurring demand).

Another factor is the record companies/copyright holders. For a new format to take off, there has to be a wide variety of content to support it. The music industry cannot get over their fear of Napster and file sharing and are reluctant to embrace any new format, especially one with superior digital technology. Which is why SACD is hobbled by analog connections. The music industry is now dictating to the manufacturers what capabilities can go into new products.

Granted new format successes are not without recent precedent. Take DVD. Once hollywood got over it's initial paranoia (which at the time was at a far lower level than in the music industry) and embraced the format - it took off. In fact, I believe DVD was adopted faster than any other consumer technology.

I am just not seeing the level of cooperation among the key players (record companies and hardware manufacturers) that it will take to have a new "standard" anytime soon.

There is a glimmer of hope. There are some nice SACDs coming out and with the backwards compatibility and multi-purpose players such as the upcoming Sony DVP-NC685V - cautious, second generation adopters, like me will get a chance to fill in the blank:

vinyl, 8-track, cassette, CD, *, _______

* DAT, MD, DCC: mostly user recordable formats that never made it to pre-recorded mass distribution

I know someone will tag me for leaving out reel-to-reel, but frankly I never had any experience with that and by this time I'm tired of my own post so........THE END.

Thanks for the comments, mg333. I found your post very interesting and helpful.