Hit Song Science just may be the future of popular

[Rooster_Ties]

See also: http://www.hitsongscience.com/, and especially also the FAQ

Posted on Sat, May. 24, 2003

Hit Song Science just may be the future of popular music

By JOAN ANDERMAN

The Boston Globe

A new company is trying to take some of the guesswork out of finding 'hit' music, with help from science and supercomputers. Already Hit Song Science is generating controversy, with some artists and record-label insiders saying it only highlights the desperation of a struggling music industry.

Hit Song Science is a high-tech music analysis system that compares new songs to a massive database of chart-topping singles and predicts hit potential based on shared attributes. All five of the major record companies -- BMG, EMI, Sony, Universal and Warner Bros. -- are using the service founded last year by Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI. A modified online version, geared toward songwriters, was launched recently at http://www.hitsongscience.com/.

"Our technology is to music what X-rays are to medicine," says Polyphonic HMI CEO Mike McCready. "We help the record industry see their market and their music in a way they were previously unable to do."

Hit Song Science technology isolates sonic patterns in a song, ranging from tempo and chord progressions to melody, harmony and pitch, and then predicts that song's success by comparing it to "hit clusters" gleaned from its database of 31/2 million songs.

Ironically, HSS arrives at a moment when those in the music business face criticism that popular music is increasingly derivative and homogeneous.

"This is just another reason why the music industry is going down the tubes," says singer/songwriter Ellis Paul. "We need to think on the edges, not down the middle."

But McCready says his company isn't trying to encourage cookie-cutter music.

"We hope we can help labels look at music that doesn't sound formulaic but will still return on their investment," he says. "For example, we predicted the success of Norah Jones' (Grammy winning) `Don't Know Why.' Nothing in our database actually sounded like it. Rather it was the combinations of patterns and properties that indicated hit potential."

But Jesse Harris, the New York songwriter who composed "Don't Know Why," is skeptical.

"It sounds like a coincidence to me," Harris says. "If they tell the label it's got hit potential and then the label puts lots of money into it, maybe that's why the song's a success."

In addition to using HSS to choose album singles, labels are also utilizing the technology to help screen music submissions from unsigned artists and short-list those identified by HSS as worthy of a closer look.

"It's a fascinating tool, and smart companies will use this as ancillary information," counters Jeff Fenster, senior vice president of A&R for Island/Def Jam Records. "But don't live by it," he warns. "There's more involved in how music connects than what can be read in lines on a graph."

[Jad]

Deep down inside, weren't we all afraid of this (or something like it)?

[Use3D]

What a stupid idea. Right up the record industry's alley.

[Jim Alfredson]

Good Lord. This kind of thing just makes me more sympathetic to file sharing.

[Rooster_Ties]

Actually, I find this kinda interesting. Kinda evil, too, of course. But still kinda interesting.

I'd love to see what all the parameters are that go into their analysis of music. A few, from their web-side: "...and isolate patterns in many musical events, some of which are melody, harmony, tempo, pitch, octave, beat, rhythm, fullness of sound, noise, brilliance, and chord progression."

More technobabble about their process: Technology

[pryan]

I remember watching an episode of The Simpsons where Bart and Milhouse, I think, become pop stars, and there were some hints of this kind of manipulation or interpretation that goes on in the music, in order to produce 'hits' and/or 'stars'. It might've been poking fun moreso at the producers' and engineers' control over the finished product but it also captured what 'kind' of tune may or probably will become popular.

[Rooster_Ties]

Wonder what jazz recordings, if any, even come close to matching their "hit zone", as compared with more 'pop'-sounding music. Actually, this is a somewhat serious question, if one were to say run several thousand 'alternative' hits through their system, to establish a baseline, and then start checking jazz recordings, one by one, to see what jazz (if any) would appeal to a more 'alternative'-oriented audience.

Just a crazy idea...

[JSngry]

I see they've found a way to automate Dianne Warren...

[chris olivarez]

I see they've found a way to automate Dianne Warren...

I thought she already was automated.