The Baseball Thread 2007

[Dan Gould]

Some thoughts:

The idea raised by Alexander that some Sox fans might turn into Yankee fans is absolutely ridiculous.

You did understand that Alexander was referring to a jaded expectation of winning, not literally changing allegiance, right? Because I don't see why you would find that "ridiculous". Do you think that the team won't continue to win with some regularity? Every fan base has its subset of assholes, what makes it ridiculous to think that our assholes haved started acting like Yankee fans?

[MartyJazz]

Some thoughts:

The idea raised by Alexander that some Sox fans might turn into Yankee fans is absolutely ridiculous.

You did understand that Alexander was referring to a jaded expectation of winning, not literally changing allegiance, right? Because I don't see why you would find that "ridiculous". Do you think that the team won't continue to win with some regularity? Every fan base has its subset of assholes, what makes it ridiculous to think that our assholes haved started acting like Yankee fans?

No, I didn't understand it as you explain it. I took it literally. My bad.

[BERIGAN]

A great story for Veterans Day, about 83 year old former major leaguer Lou Brissie. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3101709

[Dan Gould]

Well, MLB's week of award announcements has started off with Dustin Pedroia running away with the AL Rookie of the Year while Ryan Braun got the nod in the NL by a scant two votes over Tulowitsky. I think they got it right in the NL, as Braun didn't even get called up til May 25th yet finished with 34 homers and 97 RBI while hitting .324. The fact that he's a butcher in the hot corner (26 errors) doesn't eliminate the fact he had tremendous numbers in only four months of the season.

Meanwhile, I am even more impressed with Pedroia's performance in the post-season, as it was revealed last week that he broke his hamate bone in his hand early in September but with a few adjustments to his grip, continued to play. That's the same injury that took Wily Mo Pena out of the lineup in 2006, yet the kid not only continued to play but hit some critical home runs in the post-season with the injury. He's almost as tough as his mouth is.

And there was an article in the Globe about the 2008 projections book that Bill James and cohorts produces. He's got Pedroia hitting .300 with 40 doubles next year, and Ellsbury at .320 with 42 stolen bases. To his credit, his projections were almost right on the money for Youkilis and Varitek last year, so take it as you wish. But the 2007 stat that surprised me the most was his Batting Average Plus Slugging on Pitches Out of the Zone: Pedroia actually beat out notorious hacker Vlad Guerrero, .664 to .662!

[Dan Gould]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

[alocispepraluger102]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

maybe we should just award all postseason honors to new york or boston in the AL?

seriously, though, maybe we should wait to see if the mitchell committee list will be published on january 1, 2008, to make these selections.

please note, i am in no way inferring anything about josh or C.C.

Edited November 13, 2007 by alocispepraluger102

[Dan Gould]

That has nothing to do with it. If Sabathia's superiority was obvious, I'd say so. Its not, so I am protesting.

[alocispepraluger102]

That has nothing to do with it. If Sabathia's superiority was obvious, I'd say so. Its not, so I am protesting.

i've never taken these awards at all seriously, and the vote should come after the preseason.

i suspect this award is a nightmare for the indians. sabathia's very high market value has increased significantly, which is not good news to the sleep cheap underfunded indians. i would not be surprised to see sabathia in a bosox uniform.

Edited November 13, 2007 by alocispepraluger102

[Dan Gould]

That has nothing to do with it. If Sabathia's superiority was obvious, I'd say so. Its not, so I am protesting.

i've never taken these awards at all seriously, and the vote should come after the preseason.

i suspect this award is a nightmare for the indians. sabathia's very high market value has increased significantly, which is not good news to the sleep cheap underfunded indians. i would not be surprised to see sabathia in a bosox uniform.

They'll go hard to re-sign him, and considering how many filled the roster is with relatively cheap young players, I can't see why they wouldn't be able to come up with the cash to keep their best starter.

And I presume you meant that the vote should come after the post-season, not spring training.

[alocispepraluger102]

That has nothing to do with it. If Sabathia's superiority was obvious, I'd say so. Its not, so I am protesting.

i've never taken these awards at all seriously, and the vote should come after the preseason.

i suspect this award is a nightmare for the indians. sabathia's very high market value has increased significantly, which is not good news to the sleep cheap underfunded indians. i would not be surprised to see sabathia in a bosox uniform.

They'll go hard to re-sign him, and considering how many filled the roster is with relatively cheap young players, I can't see why they wouldn't be able to come up with the cash to keep their best starter.

And I presume you meant that the vote should come after the post-season, not spring training.

granted, there's very little time in between.

the indians(dolans) dont have the money, and it is a good bet that a 300 pound pitcher is going to break down soon working that number of innings. those baseball contracts are guaranteed.

[Quincy]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

Oh I don't know. They were so close - I mean even their WHIPs were the same. ERA close, Ws close. So as you say, the difference was Sabathia took the ball more. He averaged 1/3 of an inning more a start, along with the superior K/W. So there ya go. A little bit better gets you the award.

Regarding 119-86, that's because of the 5-3-1 scoring. It would have been 73-56 if you used a 3-2-1 system. What I want to know is who left Sabathia off of the ballot?

[Dan Gould]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

Oh I don't know. They were so close - I mean even their WHIPs were the same. ERA close, Ws close. So as you say, the difference was Sabathia took the ball more. He averaged 1/3 of an inning more a start, along with the superior K/W. So there ya go. A little bit better gets you the award.

Regarding 119-86, that's because of the 5-3-1 scoring. It would have been 73-56 if you used a 3-2-1 system. What I want to know is who left Sabathia off of the ballot?

Well, I was really referring to the 19 of 28 first place votes. It should have been closer - especially since, while Sabathia had the superior K/W ration, Josh had the higher Ks per 9 IP. It was much closer than the first place votes indicated.

And it is ironic since anyone watching the post-season knew who the superior pitcher overall was, but the other guy got the award.

[BERIGAN]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

Well, I recall Gammons ( I Think) pointing out that Sabathia beat Santana, and Verlander 7 out of 8 times......And I think with everything else being more or less equal, this may have been a reason.

I couldn't find the info on yahoo mlb, but didn't Sabathia have very little run support in the games he lost? Also, he no doubt had several games blown by Borowski...

[Dan Gould]

Well, I am sure that it is little consolation to Sabathia or tribe fans that he got the Cy Young over Beckett. I'm sure Beckett is happier with the ring, anyway. But what I can't understand is how comfortable his lead was over Beckett. He had 1 fewer wins and the same number of losses, a rather small difference in ERA - .06, and a substantial lead in innings pitched, 40, at least partially explained by Beckett's "avulsion" in June. When you consider the difference in innings, Beckett actually outperformed Sabathia in Ks (8.72 per nine innings to 7.8). Only in strikeout to walk ratio does Sabathia have a substantial lead, 5.65 to 4.85.

So how does he get 19 of 28 first place votes and win 119-86??

Surely he is lucky that the post-season doesn't enter into the voting, because when you compare his performance to Beckett's and add in the regular season, its not even close.

Honestly, in my opinion, this vote ought to have been as close as the NL RoY and its ridiculous if Sabathia won based on 40 more innings. Josh was robbed!

Well, I recall Gammons ( I Think) pointing out that Sabathia beat Santana, and Verlander 7 out of 8 times......And I think with everything else being more or less equal, this may have been a reason.

I couldn't find the info on yahoo mlb, but didn't Sabathia have very little run support in the games he lost? Also, he no doubt had several games blown by Borowski...

I've never understood the "beat" other pitchers. You beat other teams - its easier to beat Minnesota when they have a bad season, when their best hitters have down years, and especially when their ace has a down year.

As far as Sabathia's losses go, Borowski didn't blow a save in a game where C.C. was in line for the win. He did, however, have a 1-0 loss and a 2-1 loss, plus a ND in which he went 9 shut out innings.

[Patrick]

Please. It's a regular season award. Sabathia had a slightly better regular season. If your complaint is only about the margin of victory, then count that up to the scoring system. Don't know what Neyer said about it today because I refuse to pay to be an Insider. I thought Stark had a decent grumbling about it toward the end of the regular season, but can't seem to locate it now, though here's at least one version of it [dated September 30]:

American League Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Indians

As much as we admire the brilliance of Josh Beckett and John Lackey, and as easily as we could make a case for putting about a half-dozen other pitchers on this ballot somewhere, not one of those men has quite managed to outpitch the human mountain range who should be on the verge of becoming the largest (OK, heaviest) Cy Young winner ever. We're talking, ladies and gentlemen, about 6-foot-7, 260-pounds (give or take 50) Carsten Charles Sabathia. And for those who have their doubts about this choice, let's subtract wins and losses from the argument and look at Sabathia versus Beckett and Lackey. True, Lackey leads the league in ERA, and Beckett has a better strikeout rate. But check these categories: Starts of seven innings-plus: Sabathia 24, Lackey 19, Beckett 15. Starts allowing no more than two earned runs in six-plus innings: Sabathia 19, Beckett 15, Lackey 15. Innings pitched: Sabathia (241 innings) led Lackey by 17 and Beckett by 40. Then there's Sabathia's amazing 5.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio (209-37), the best by any left-handed pitcher in American League history. But the clincher is the way Sabathia kept outdueling those other AL Central aces down the stretch, especially his 3-0, 1.64 record in three late-season starts against Johan Santana. There has never been a 260-pound Cy Young winner, let alone one whose first name would be unrecognizable to 99 percent of all living Americans. But six weeks from now, unless there's a massive miscarriage of voting justice, we won't be able to say that anymore.

Maybe I'd also put less importance on the "versus aces" numbers, but it's still tough to beat Johan Santana (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 5 of those losses against Cleveland--3 to CC, 2 to Fausto) even if the Twins weren't great this year. Maybe Beckett has a similarly impressive list of aces he beat during the regular season, but I haven't heard about it.

How often did Beckett pitch at least seven innings, give up 2 runs or less, and not get a win? Twice, earning losses against Toronto and Cleveland.

How often did Sabathia pitch at least seven innings, give up 2 runs or less, and not get a win? Six times, resulting in two losses and 4 no decisions. Would you still complain if Sabathia had say two more wins?

Say what you want about how tough it is to pitch in Fenway, Beckett benefitted from pitching for a team with a more prolific offense (home and away). And doesn't quantity of high quality starts/innings get some consideration here?

And yes, I think it's obvious to everyone that just about everyone (including Beckett and Sabathia) would prefer a championship ring instead of an individual honor like the Cy Young. Congratulations to Beckett for his awesome post-season. He and his teammates rose to the occaision.

[BERIGAN]

... Don't know what Neyer said about it today because I refuse to pay to be an Insider......

some of us have more willpower than others...

Sabathia is the obvious choice

Obviously, the Cy Young battle was between only two men. Perhaps this wasn't fair to John Lackey (19-9, 3.01) and Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06), but that's the way it was. The voters had eyes only for C.C. Sabathia (19-7, 3.21) and Josh Beckett (20-7, 3.27).

Sabathia won, and the voting was not particularly close. But who should have won?

One popular argument for Beckett (especially in Red Sox Nation): "He won 20 games!"

Yes, he did. That really is a distinction without a difference, though. It's bad enough to ignore a candidate because his teammates didn't help him much -- Dan Haren, anyone? -- but it's just flat silly to argue that there's a meaningful difference between winning 20 games and winning 19. I mean, that single additional win does count. But it shouldn't count for much.

So what else is there?

We can look at hits and walks. The easy measure is WHIP -- walks plus hits per innings pitched -- but WHIP isn't much help in this case, because both Sabathia and Beckett gave up 1.14 baserunners per inning, tied for third-best in the league (behind Johan Santana and Erik Bedard).

We can look at quality starts, a rough measure of consistency, of how often each pitcher kept his team in the game for at least six innings. Of Sabathia's 34 starts, 25 were of the quality sort; Beckett was 20 for 30.

We can look at strikeouts per nine innings. Some will argue that strikeouts are irrelevant, but I will argue that if a pitcher deserves credit for what he does, as opposed to what his defense does behind him, strikeouts are a great tiebreaker. Sabathia struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings. Beckett struck out 8.7 per nine innings.

So they're (almost) even in wins, they're (almost) even in ERA, and they're even in baserunners allowed. Sabathia has the edge in quality starts, while Beckett posted more strikeouts.

Is there anything we haven't considered? Yes. Three things: environment, competition and durability.

Environment: As you probably know, Fenway Park is not a friendly place for power hitters. Over the past three seasons, Fenway has allowed the fewest home runs in the American League. However, it's a great place for hitters, generally; over the past three seasons, it's been the best for scoring. Meanwhile, Jacobs Field has been pitcher-friendly over the past three seasons, but in 2007 it ranked behind only Fenway in its positive impact on scoring. It's not easy to weigh park effects, but it looks like neither Beckett nor Sabathia was helped much by his home field, with Beckett suffering the effects slightly more.

Competition: Last season, 19 American League pitchers finished with at least 200 innings. Beckett was 10th, right in the middle, facing a composite .757 OPS over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Sabathia had the easiest time in the group, as he faced a composite .738 OPS (holding the 18th spot was Sabathia's teammate, Fausto Carmona, at .747).

Durability: This is obviously Sabathia's ace in the hole. He topped the American League with 241 innings. Beckett was 19th in the league with 201 innings.

Add everything up, and what do you get? I suspect that any answer is either a guess or a partisan defense. So instead, let's turn to a couple of methods that are designed to add everything up.

In Baseball Prospectus' Value Over Replacement Player, Sabathia beats Beckett, 65-59 (runs). In Bill James' Win Shares, Sabathia beats Beckett, 24-19. In fact, it's worth mentioning that with both methods, Beckett actually ranks fourth in the American League, behind Carmona and Lackey. And while those methods don't consider quality of competition -- that edge belongs to Beckett over Sabathia -- it's worth mentioning that John Lackey faced exactly the same quality of competition that Beckett faced.

It seems to me that Sabathia was the obvious choice this time. If we pick and dig and quibble, we might make the case for someone else. But that someone else might just as easily be Lackey instead of Beckett.

Edited November 14, 2007 by BERIGAN

[alocispepraluger102]

carmona was awesome. he saved the indians asses in the regular season, and apparently received no support.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=433584

[sheldonm]

carmona was awesome. he saved the indians asses in the regular season, and apparently received no support.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=433584

...going from 1-10 in 2006 to 19-8 in 2007 is certainly a big turn around!

m~

[Patrick]

Berigan, thanks for posting that. I've never waded deep into the sabermetrics, but enjoy reading Neyer when the price is right.

[alocispepraluger102]

http://www.mansfieldnewsjournal.com/apps/p...ATES01/71114022

Edited November 14, 2007 by alocispepraluger102

[skeith]

Congratulations to CC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chalupa]

J-RO!!!!

Rollins, who spurred Phils into playoffs, wins MVP

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3120573

[Dan Gould]

J-RO!!!!

Rollins, who spurred Phils into playoffs, wins MVP

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3120573

A tough call but I think he deserved it.

When you get right down to it the Phils have some tremendous young players and if their pitching comes through I think they have as good a chance as any team to hoist a trophy in the next five years.

[Quincy]

J-RO!!!!

Rollins, who spurred Phils into playoffs, wins MVP

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3120573

Congrats! Had Utley not gone down it may have been his. I still thought they might take votes away from each other, not that I'm any good at predicting how others vote. Tough choice but I like it. He played every day at SS, he had great numbers, and got better as the season progressed too. Plus he had attitude! (See, I'm not a complete stathead.)

Hmm, does any article list the shortest MVP winners? Ah never mind, everybody's favorite to fire former-Hall-of-Fame-player-now-announcer is an inch shorter.

~Edited for clarity

Edited November 20, 2007 by Quincy

[Dan Gould]

Hmm, does any article list the shortest MVP winners? Ah never mind, everybody's favorite to fire former-Hall-of-Fame-player-now-announcer is an inch shorter.

~Edited for clarity

Want to try that one more time?