Irma Watch

[JSngry]

 

Definitely NOT:

 

Some Lemmon in your water? NOT THIS TIME!

Still no way to know for sure where this thing will land stateside, of even that it will. But it's looking like hell right now, especially for our Caribbean neighbors.

Y'all stay in touch as possible, please.

 

[Hardbopjazz]

Irma has become the strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic ocean.  I hope life and property gets spared by Irma's wrath. 

[Scott Dolan]

Current track takes the eyewall right over my old stomping grounds that were destroyed by Charley in 2004. 

But things could change dramatically between now and Saturday. 

[catesta]

Not looking good at all for the small islands. Hopefully this thing turns sharp and heads back out to sea before reaching Florida.

Edited September 6, 2017 by catesta

[rostasi]

By a pretty amazing coincidence, a first-time staging of Tom Phillips' 1969 opera, Irma,
will be performed on the 16th and 17th of this month at the South London Gallery.
Some of you may know of the Obscure Records recording that was released back in '78 -
which is interesting, but really more of an excerpted segment from a not yet fully fleshed out final opera.

[Dan Gould]

2 hours ago, catesta said:

Not looking good at all for the small islands. Hopefully this thing turns sharp and heads back out to sea before reaching Florida.

Current trend in the models has me clinging to hope. The next two days will tell the tale since three day forecast cones have a reasonably small error range. The sooner it starts to turn the more likely winds aren't as bad up in Plant City where we have a horse barn that we fear can't handle strong tropical storm winds let alone hurricane or major hurricane strength. Sue already has a place for the horses in Tampa, at a rate that boggles my mind but at least they'll be safe.

OTOH an office-mate sent me an image from his phone that has the current track sending the eye directly over the office in Broward county.

I mean, directly over the office.  

[JSngry]

Evacuations have begun in Florida, correct? I'm seeing images of long, slow (but moving!) lines heading north on TV.

2 hours ago, rostasi said:

By a pretty amazing coincidence, a first-time staging of Tom Phillips' 1969 opera, Irma,
will be performed on the 16th and 17th of this month at the South London Gallery.

With no Martin & Lewis, I'll pass, thank you.

[HutchFan]

Y'all down there in Florida stay safe!  And get the hell outta there if need be!

[mjzee]

Our thoughts are with you, out there in Florida.  We've just lived through a big weather event here in Houston; hope Irma somehow avoids you.

[Scott Dolan]

4 hours ago, JSngry said:

Evacuations have begun in Florida, correct? I'm seeing images of long, slow (but moving!) lines heading north on TV.

With no Martin & Lewis, I'll pass, thank you.

Yes, they start evacuating the Keys five to six days out, normally. If they didn't those folks wouldn't make it out after the mainland evacuations start. 

[JSngry]

The projections seem to be showing some more eastbound paths, but even at that, they don't show the mainland being totally safe.

The strongest hurricane ever documented, they're saying now. Scary.

[Scott Dolan]

One thing to keep in mind is that Hurricanes often are at their most powerful while out over the Atlantic. 

When I lived in Florida I used to physically track Hurricanes on Hurricane maps that could be picked up for free at any grocery store, for example. With coordinates and pencil in hand I'd track them. Some of the sizes and strengths I tracked over the Atlantic were enough to turn you ghost white. But MOST of the time they lost energy before making landfall. 

Fingers crossed this one falls into the MOST of the time category. 

[Dan Gould]

This is currently the ultimate worst nightmare for south Florida. Andrew was devastating but on a relatively small portion of the area as a whole. If Irma skips up the coast, half in the gulf stream and half on land, the damage could be catastrophic or nearly so for 100 miles or more.

And here's another bad scenario: It makes the turn but it occurs later and it does churn up the center of the peninsula.  All the populated areas will be in the most dangerous upper right quadrant, and we learned from Wilma that a hurricane that goes over "land" that is actually swamp, will get stronger rather than weaker. That was why the back end of Wilma devastated my neighborhood and specifically our former home's windows, doors, perimeter fence and several large trees.

Wilma can't touch Irma for power though. Is there a category 6? Will they need to invent one?

[Aggie87]

My wife and I honeymooned in St. Maarten (actually on the French side, St. Martin) in 2011.  It breaks my heart to see the damage there.  The airport (well known because you can stand on the beach and have planes fly over you while landing and it seems like they're just 20 ft above you) had pretty significant damage apparently.  The island of Barbuda is even worse - reports say 90% of the island is destroyed.  Hopefully Puerto Rico comes through without major destruction and deaths.

And my thoughts go out to friends and board members in Florida.  I've got friends in the Keys who are riding it out (but have moved in to a "solid" hotel instead of the place they rent).  Hunker down and stay safe if you're staying.

[Scott Dolan]

2 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

This is currently the ultimate worst nightmare for south Florida. Andrew was devastating but on a relatively small portion of the area as a whole. If Irma skips up the coast, half in the gulf stream and half on land, the damage could be catastrophic or nearly so for 100 miles or more.

And here's another bad scenario: It makes the turn but it occurs later and it does churn up the center of the peninsula.  All the populated areas will be in the most dangerous upper right quadrant, and we learned from Wilma that a hurricane that goes over "land" that is actually swamp, will get stronger rather than weaker. That was why the back end of Wilma devastated my neighborhood and specifically our former home's windows, doors, perimeter fence and several large trees.

Wilma can't touch Irma for power though. Is there a category 6? Will they need to invent one?

Yeah, Andrew fed off the Everglades. Warm water, the magic elixir. Did you ever see that high altitude shot looking down on south Florida after Andrew passed where you could see the physical line of destruction? That was rather amazing. 

Another interesting fact some may not know is that Andrew was listed as a Cat 4 for about a decade before research after the fact determined that it was really a Cat 5. Of course, those of us in south Florida at the time kind of suspected it from the beginning. 

[Dan Gould]

After two fruitless days I got a tip about Lowe's and had Sue high-tailed it over there and she ended up snatching number 7 of a shipment of 10 generators. Freakin' beast but beggars can't be choosers.

So, you know, happy dance and all that. Still need more gasoline cans and gas inside them but this is a big step in storm prep.

[Dan Gould]

up to 25 gallons of gas, approximately 7 days worth of generator based on prior experience/usage.

Not that there's a lot of waiting left, tropical storm force winds are here or about to arrive.

[Scott Dolan]

Looking like it'll be a Cat 3 by the time it gets to you. Hopefully the eyewall stays to the west. Still gonna be a little hairy for a few hours. Stay safe. 

[Chuck Nessa]

Just heard a reporter say "It's effecting animals. I've seen birds and squirrels in places they shouldn't ought to be."

Edited September 10, 2017 by Chuck Nessa

[Scott Dolan]

Sudden drops in pressure have very odd effects on animals. 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

It first made land in Florida at Cudjoe Key. For the last two April vacations, my family has spent a week at a beautiful house on Cudjoe Key. I have doubts that it's still there. It was right on the water.

[rostasi]

[Dan Gould]

Well as you may have seen I am back though things are hardly normal yet.

Damage:

Mom's house in Naples is only a mile and a half from the Gulf, with a lake connected to canals that connect to a river to the gulf, so that storm surge was a huge fear. Fortunately her only damage was to the screen enclosure over her pool - plus one or two trees destroyed. She got out of Dodge a few days before and has been paying thru the nose for a NYC hotel; plans to return early next week assuming power is up.

Plant City: Pretty minor overall, we have shingle damage on the main house and more shingle damage then before on the apartment/barn structure. But our GC told us he didn't think the barn roof could survive 45-60 mph winds yet it did. Also lost two fence sections, an easy repair.

But power, oh what a nightmare power has been. Generator purchased last Thursday never ever turned over. Sue drove 100 miles each way to get a generator from a co-worker who didn't lose power. But we need two generators if we want to keep fans and fridge going when we have to also run the pump for water for the horses and to take a shower occasionally.

Sue took the balky generator back to Lowe's yesterday morning and returned with a new one. They actually told her that the manufacturer was throwing them together as quick as possible to get them on the trucks and in stores before Irma, and they anticipated getting a few "duds" back. Too bad one of them was ours. So now we can keep everything going while we wait for Tampa Electric to get us back up. They say virtually everybody by Sunday at Midnight, right now its supposed to be 95% with power but my pessimistic nature tells me we're going to be in the stragglers that they get to 'whenever'. We've got power almost all around us, and I don't think we even merit a blip on their outage map. 

In the meantime, gas is plentiful (why not with 95% on the grid) so we aren't scrimping on generator usage. Sue's workstation is powered up and so is mine, our one worry is possible damage to the PCs due to heat in the house. Today is the first day into the 90s and the house is inevitably warmer than outside. I think we have to be very careful running the equipment when its this hot with overheating a real risk. Sorry boss!

[Dmitry]

I could never live in Florida year round. Too hot, and way too humid for me.

Good luck to you!

[Scott Dolan]

1 hour ago, Dmitry said:

I could never live in Florida year round. Too hot, and way too humid for me.

 

I lived there for 32 hellish years, and completely agree.