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2018-19 Hot Stove League


JSngry

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My prediction, and one about which Iā€™m not happy: Manny Machado will sign with the Yankees, and Bryce Harper will sign with the Dodgers (though Iā€™m not not ruling out the Cubs landing him instead). I think that Harper really wants to be a Yankee, but gee, weā€™ve already got Brett Gardner and Jacobi Ellsbury, so no need for another outfielder! I feel like strangling Hal Steinbrenner (and Cashman to some extent as well). I remember how well our ā€œoverstocked outfieldā€ did last year when Aaron Judge was on the DL for two months and Stanton was having hamstring issues. Thatā€™s why we ended up trading for Andrew McCutchen. I guess weā€™re also content to hope that Luke Voitā€™s season-end surge at age 27 wasnā€™t a fluke orĀ that the ever-promising Greg Bird will finally take flight. But hey, at least our payroll will end upĀ below Bostonā€™s right? And our season record as well, no doubt.

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Ā 

1 hour ago, ghost of miles said:

"My prediction, and one about which Iā€™m not happy: Manny Machado will sign with the Yankees, and Bryce Harper will sign with the Dodgers." Ā 

David,

I'd rather see the the Yanks sign Harper. Ā He can play first base or the outfield. Ā Say no to Machado. Ā I think he'sĀ a cancer. Ā What I can't figure out is why the Cashman isĀ so anxious toĀ moveĀ Anduhar. Ā The kid is onlyĀ 23, he can hit,Ā hitĀ for power and plays adequate, if not inspired defense. Ā Not to mention that he was Ā runner-up for AL ROY. Ā I'd move Gleyber Torres to SS, sign an FA or go withĀ Raphael Torres at second,Ā leave Anduhar at third and wait for Didi to get Ā better. Ā I don't think Bird will ever work out as a hitter and it'sĀ rolling aĀ pretty big pair ofĀ dice toĀ assumeĀ Luke VoitĀ will replicate his performance at the end of last season.Ā 

Edited by Dave James
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11 hours ago, Dave James said:

Ā 

David,

I'd rather see the the Yanks sign Harper. Ā He can play first base or the outfield. Ā Say no to Machado. Ā I think he'sĀ a cancer. Ā What I can't figure out is why the Cashman isĀ so anxious toĀ moveĀ Anduhar. Ā The kid is onlyĀ 23, he can hit,Ā hitĀ for power and plays adequate, if not inspired defense. Ā Not to mention that he was Ā runner-up for AL ROY. Ā I'd move Gleyber Torres to SS, sign an FA or go withĀ Raphael Torres at second,Ā leave Anduhar at third and wait for Didi to get Ā better. Ā I don't think Bird will ever work out as a hitter and it'sĀ rolling aĀ pretty big pair ofĀ dice toĀ assumeĀ Luke VoitĀ will replicate his performance at the end of last season.Ā 

Dave, I agree with every single thing you wroteā€”maybe most emphatically the apparent willingness to consider Andujar as trade bait. But also yes re Harper vs Machado.

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$30 million (or more) for ten years for a guy who's driven in 100 runs once in seven years, and who struck out 169 times last year?
That's a sucker's contract for the team that's paying it.
The Yanks already have one guy who struck out 211 times last year (Stanton) and another who struck out 152 times (Judge). They don't need another one of those.

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6 minutes ago, paul secor said:

$30 million (or more) for ten years for a guy who's driven in 100 runs once in seven years, and who struck out 169 times last year?
That's a sucker's contract for the team that's paying it.
The Yanks already have one guy who struck out 211 times last year (Stanton) and another who struck out 152 times (Judge). They don't need another one of those.

Would prefer the Yankees staying away from both Machado and Harper .... these monster contracts seem nowadays out of time ....

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Big-name baseball free agency is one of the best illustrations of the behavioral economics concept of "The Winner's Curse".

I can't fathom how Harper's career statsĀ justify the numbers being quoted (yeah, Scott Boras is his agent, but still), and Machado seems to have deal-breakingĀ character flaws. And even in the best case, the clubs will be eating serious money in the late years of the contracts.

I should do a post-mortem analysis of the Albert Pujols contract...too lazy, but I suspect he's been on the high end of value among premiumĀ free agent signings. Still, his pay of $28, $29 and $30 million for 2019 through 2021 is far from appetizing. On the plus side,Ā his sterling character has never been in question (unlike Machado).

Edited by T.D.
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Harper and Machado are both 26ā€“much younger than Pujols when he signed his contract. Even a ten-year contract still gives you 5-6 years of them in their prime. Harper has a great OBP and a short rightfield porch to aim for at Yankee Stadium. Heā€™d also be a lefty bat in a lineup thatā€™s heavily stacked with righties. But weā€™ll most likely not sign him because weā€™re still paying Jacobi Ellsbury $22 million a year Ā for two more years (now *that* was a terrible signing, partly because Ellsbury was already in his 30s when the contract began) and because Yankee management seems infatuated with Machado. I donā€™t wantĀ A-Rod II: Machado BoogalooĀ for the next 8-10 years.

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36 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

Harper and Machado are both 26ā€“much younger than Pujols when he signed his contract. Even a ten-year contract still gives you 5-6 years of them in their prime. Harper has a great OBP and a short rightfield porch to aim for at Yankee Stadium. Heā€™d also be a lefty bat in a lineup thatā€™s heavily stacked with righties.Ā 

Yep .... still the price is steep ....

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3 hours ago, Dave James said:

The upside for Phillies fans is owner John Middleton doesn't sound like he's going to lose out on Harper or Machado by being outbid.

"We're going into this expecting to spend money," Middleton told USA Today's Bob Nightengale in November. "And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it."

OK - Let the Phillies be stupid about this one.

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I don't think this says much about Machado. Ā Assuming he can stay healthy,Ā Tulowitski is the bridge at shortstop between opening day and the return ofĀ Didi Gregorios.Ā The Yankees have always beenĀ interested in MachadoĀ as a third baseman. Ā The "tell" here isĀ what they do with Andujar. Ā Ā 

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48 minutes ago, Dave James said:

I don't think this says much about Machado. Ā Assuming he can stay healthy,Ā Tulowitski is the bridge at shortstop between opening day and the return ofĀ Didi Gregorios.Ā The Yankees have always beenĀ interested in MachadoĀ as a third baseman. Ā The "tell" here isĀ what they do with Andujar. Ā Ā 

Hasnā€™t Machado insisted on wanting to play SS?

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