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ghost of miles

COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

681 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, BillF said:

We have 28,000 deaths with a population one fifth of yours, so we're in a mess! :o

A better comparison is probably Belgium and not the US - similarly overcrowded country. Belgium’s per capita rate is even higher than ours.

 Not helped of course by all the idiots going to the pubs, soccer, Cheltenham Races etc. back in early March and ignoring all advice, before these places were locked down.

Edited by sidewinder

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1 hour ago, BillF said:

We have 28,000 deaths with a population one fifth of yours, so we're in a mess! :o

When it comes to day-dreaming and duffery we are world leaders!

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Fuddle whilst Rome burns. But what's it matter to stay everyone's best mate.

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2 hours ago, sidewinder said:

A better comparison is probably Belgium and not the US - similarly overcrowded country. Belgium’s per capita rate is even higher than ours.

 Not helped of course by all the idiots going to the pubs, soccer, Cheltenham Races etc. back in early March and ignoring all advice, before these places were locked down.

The politics ban prevents me from replying to this.<_<

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2 minutes ago, BillF said:

The politics ban prevents me from replying to this.<_<

Absolutely nothing to do with politics. ^_^

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Posted (edited)

48 minutes ago, sidewinder said:

Absolutely nothing to do with politics. ^_^

😄 

Edited by mjazzg

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3 hours ago, David Ayers said:

When it comes to day-dreaming and duffery we are world leaders!

What a great phrase! Never heard "duffery" before, but I like it.

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4 hours ago, sidewinder said:

Belgium’s per capita rate is even higher than ours.

Belgium takes into account the victims of COVID19 in nursing homes, care homes and assisted living facilities.

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Posted (edited)

37 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

Since I believe the gestation period is around 14 days, these deaths occurred while most of the nation was sheltering in place. With restrictions being eased, cases may increase.

After holding steady for a few days in the 50-80 range, new cases in our county yesterday increased to slightly over 100. Better than it was previously but not optimal. 

Edited by Brad

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Posted (edited)

More indications that the “widely-cited” IHME model, which on April 29 projected 72,000 U.S. deaths by August 4 (as of this moment we’re at 68,126) is all but irrelevant:

U.S. could hit 100,000 deaths before end of May

Edited by ghost of miles

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IMHE #s seem to be a little more nuanced than just one flat figure:http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Location

Predictions for cumulative COVID-19 deaths through the first wave from our April 29 release (today)

Predictions from our April 27 release

Change of average values since the April 27 release*

United States

72,433 (59,343 to 114,228)

74,073 (56,563 to 130,666)

↓ 1,640 deaths

Still, the range seems pretty low at this time (and seem to be off more in the revising!!!). We'll see.

IMHE seems to be something sponsored by Bill Gates: http://www.healthdata.org/about/history

I've no set opinion about Bill Gates, other than thinking that he's an uberbazookleaire who seems to think he can now do good for the world with his money.

The operative word there is "can". Hey...potential vs kinetic.

And, the IMHE's  modelling technique is not universally praised by those in the epidemiology community, seems to be some serious questions about the assumptions used to build it: https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

This should, I think, be the appropriate attitude towards any of this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong

 

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I find it Interesting that a lot of the people who want reopen and get back to “normal” are in the hospitality industry. I do wonder how may people are interested in renting the cabin by the lake with the potential economic downturn. I know we have planned to alter our vacationing this summer due to everything. 

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The confirmed case #'s are gonna skyrocket if/when we get serious about universal testing.

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Posted (edited)

52 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

This is how stupid things have gotten. 

Wearing masks has become a flashpoint in the virus culture wars

Only in America. 

If I’m in a public place, I wear a mask and gloves as well, if I may touch something. However, if I’m out walking or in a place where I may not encounter people I don’t wear one but have one at the ready b

Edited by Brad

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Last night the president refered more than once to "teachers of a certain age" not returning to the classroom in the same capacity.  I'm interested in this conceit as I am a teacher of a certain age-63. 

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1 hour ago, Jim Duckworth said:

Last night the president refered more than once to "teachers of a certain age" not returning to the classroom in the same capacity.  I'm interested in this conceit as I am a teacher of a certain age-63. 

Meaning what, do you think?

 

I wonder if in my own country we are about to create a class of citizens based on age and 'underlying conditions' (i.e. if you die, too bad, you were ill anyway). I worry that we will be marginalised at or excluded from work (for me its condition not age).

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57 minutes ago, David Ayers said:

Meaning what, do you think?

 

I wonder if in my own country we are about to create a class of citizens based on age and 'underlying conditions' (i.e. if you die, too bad, you were ill anyway). I worry that we will be marginalised at or excluded from work (for me its condition not age).

I rather suspect that many people with disabilities and chronic health conditions feel that class exists already, as will those that have experienced age discrimination. As with many things, this pandemic is shedding light on these existing disparities and exacerbating them.

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1 hour ago, David Ayers said:

Meaning what, do you think?

I can't imagine that this means anything positive for me:  high official with the district in which I work once said that the biggest problem our schools face is veteran teachers.  And for my part, I have not been Mr. Cooperation at work-I don't have any problems with my co-workers or students-I just hate everything that gets handed down to me from on high like testing or the curriculum I am now expected to follow "with fidelity."  I will probably have to fall back on a career that utlizes my arcane knowledge of jazz and my proclivity to criticize my superiors.

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12 minutes ago, Jim Duckworth said:

I can't imagine that this means anything positive for me:  high official with the district in which I work once said that the biggest problem our schools face is veteran teachers.  And for my part, I have not been Mr. Cooperation at work-I don't have any problems with my co-workers or students-I just hate everything that gets handed down to me from on high like testing or the curriculum I am now expected to follow "with fidelity."  I will probably have to fall back on a career that utlizes my arcane knowledge of jazz and my proclivity to criticize my superiors.

Expect to see a ramping up in age discrimination suits. 

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I smell Death Panels!!!!! :g:g:g:g:g

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47 minutes ago, Jim Duckworth said:

I will probably have to fall back on a career that utlizes my arcane knowledge of jazz and my proclivity to criticize my superiors.

Let me know what that is when you figure it out.  Whatever that job/career is, that's what I want to be when I grow up!

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