ghost of miles

COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

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We're definitely in pandemic mode and a long way from any endemic areas.

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That we are still in pandemic mode strikes me as a massive failure of the species to pay attention at any meaningful level or to any meaningful degree. To get to endemic would therefore be a triumph, albeit a hollow one.

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Okay. Won't be happening anytime soon. 

I'm not surprised we're in this fix. We're not very smart collectively as a species, and we're arguably getting dumber due to technology and how it aids and abets our insane selfishness and xenophobia. The 1918 flu probably would have lasted longer and been worse in great measure had we the global market and transportation we have now. I think we're in for a few more years of this. I hope I'm wrong.

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The whole concept of "binary choices"...good for the handling of data, bad for the thought process of living creatures.

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20 minutes ago, jazzbo said:

Okay. Won't be happening anytime soon. 

I'm not surprised we're in this fix. We're not very smart collectively as a species, and we're arguably getting dumber due to technology and how it aids and abets our insane selfishness and xenophobia. The 1918 flu probably would have lasted longer and been worse in great measure had we the global market and transportation we have now. I think we're in for a few more years of this. I hope I'm wrong.

I’m very optimistic that Omicron being so contagious is the way out. So many people are going to get covid that I believe the cases in England and then 4-5 weeks later in the US will drop very sharply. Maybe by mid and then late January or early February in the US. I’ll check back here in a couple of months and hopefully I’m correct.

plus all evidence is that omicron is multiples less deadly. Within 2 weeks we will know pretty much how much less deadly as the hospitalization and death numbers come in from Great Britain. Seems to me especially a huge percentage of young people who are unvaxxed will get it and therefore immunity for some period of time. Huge case numbers will happen in the states - probably 400 to 500K per day by mid January (reported - actual according to experts probably at least 3-4 times that - especially since the asymptomatic cases of young people and fully vaxxed/boosted is very very high as a percentage) 

 

Edited by Steve Reynolds

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I wish I could share your optimism. I don't.

I am reading conflicting information about this variant being less severe. 

As you say, we'll see.

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The cases are declining in S Africa. Let’s be optimistic. 

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35 minutes ago, jazzbo said:

I wish I could share your optimism. I don't.

I am reading conflicting information about this variant being less severe. 

As you say, we'll see.

I believe I’ll be at the Jazz Gallery this spring at full capacity. Missed Henry Threadgill this month as I just didn’t feel like it’s the right time. I think the evidence of the lesser severity is clear. What is not known if it’s 30 or 50 or even 70 to 90% less severe. Vaccinated and vaccinated & boosted people are still simply not ending up in hospitals at anything other than very very old or immunocompromised. That was mostly the case with delta. With omicron it will be even less / how much less as a percentage of cases is the question. Check the numbers in England 10 days from now and here in the States in a month. 

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I am not as confident reading about the severity as you are from my reading. I'd be delighted if you are correct. I remain dubious that we will be where you think we will be in the spring.

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30 minutes ago, jazzbo said:

I am not as confident reading about the severity as you are from my reading. I'd be delighted if you are correct. I remain dubious that we will be where you think we will be in the spring.

+1

Seems like there's a pattern developing of significant new variants/mutants every couple of months, with corresponding surges and declines in case numbers. I definitely expect that to continue. Beyond that, uncertain...I can't pretend to forecast how hazardous the mutants will be, whether existing vaccines will work against them, or whether comprehensive vaccines will be developed. Hope is that the cycles will gradually dampen.

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Whatever hope I have is going to be rooted on a general consensus of appropriate/effective factually-informed behavior by the general population.

Y'all can do the math on that one.

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2 hours ago, jazzbo said:
47 minutes ago, JSngry said:

Whatever hope I have is going to be rooted on a general consensus of appropriate/effective factually-informed behavior by the general population.

Y'all can do the math on that one.

 Cake is baked. What’s gonna happen over the next few months is gonna happen. 

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and just got word that another one of my granddaughter's friends has tested positive. No indication yet of how symptomatic she is, but just the possibility of a pediatric ICU is chilling.

That's an emotional reaction, of course.

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I’ve heard of more people getting covid in the past 3 weeks than the total I heard about from March 2020 until the first week of December this year. None of the people I know over the past few weeks have gone to the hospital including my 70 year old best friend and his immunocompromised 69 year old wife. This might be anecdotal but if in a week the hospitalizations here in NJ don’t follow the explosion of cases (up to 18,000 today - was 4,000 a day a week ago) we will know the answer to the severity of the omicron question we have all been speculating on. Sooner than I thought earlier today I guess. My educated guess is 70% plus less severe. Many learned people agree / of course other learned people are less optimistic. We can simply follow the data and the numbers.

Edited by Steve Reynolds

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Winter Jazzfest sent out this notice earlier today, announcing the postponement of most in-person performances:

Hello Winter Jazzfest Friends and Happy Holidays,

As you well know, the world is facing yet another challenge of our resolve and our spirits from the highly contagious Omicron variant of SARS CoV-2 (aka Covid-19).

After much internal deliberation, hearing from the musicians, you, our audience, friends in the medical community and our staff, we have decided that the most responsible decision for the general welfare of all of you, is to currently postpone most IN-PERSON events for 18th Annual NYC Winter Jazzfest to later dates

Even if we were to follow all current NYC & NYS guidelines with vaccination requirements and masking enforcement, we know many of you will be anxious to attend and given the heightened transmissibility of this variant, we feel that this is the most prudent way to proceed. The safety of our patrons, our staff, all musicians and of YOU is our main priority.

We are arranging for several shows to be streamed during the original dates of the festival, from January 13-22 and will invite you to join us then. We will also let you know as soon as we have new dates planned for our postponed events. And see our refunds section below for further details for ticket holders. 

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1 hour ago, Steve Reynolds said:

I’ve heard of more people getting covid in the past 3 weeks than the total I heard about from March 2020 until the first week of December this year. None of the people I know over the past few weeks have gone to the hospital including my 70 year old best friend and his immunocompromised 69 year old wife. This might be anecdotal but if in a week the hospitalizations here in NJ don’t follow the explosion of cases (up to 18,000 today - was 4,000 a day a week ago) we will know the answer to the severity of the omicron question we have all been speculating on. Sooner than I thought earlier today I guess. My educated guess is 70% plus less severe. Many learned people agree / of course other learned people are less optimistic. We can simply follow the data and the numbers.

First official report in the UK today confirms your optimism. Small sample size but serious scientists here are taking it seriously 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/hospital-admission-risk-up-to-70-less-with-omicron-than-delta-ukhsa-finds

Here's hoping

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I'm not a virus psychologist, but if anybody here is, please advise.

Is Omicron an effort by the virus to stay alive by any means, i.e. - willing to spread more at the expense of potency?

Or...

Is it an attempt to sacrifice immediate potency for the sake of getting a chance to regroup into a more potent form when the opportunity presents itself?

Of course, viruses don't "think" (that we know of yet...), but patterns of survival in all life forms...possibilities exist. Some strategies lead to increase, some lead to decrease (and even extinction).

I guess we'll know when we get there. But the lack of a really consistent population strategy seems to be to almost exponentially increase the range of variables, and more variable is probably not what we should feel good about in terms of a possible positive end game? Right?

Real science people, speak up here, please.

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14 hours ago, mjazzg said:

First official report in the UK today confirms your optimism. Small sample size but serious scientists here are taking it seriously 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/hospital-admission-risk-up-to-70-less-with-omicron-than-delta-ukhsa-finds

Here's hoping

This made me think about 'the end' of the virus. If it keeps mutating but getting less dangerous but only more contageous..... Could it create it's own downfall that way? It made me also think about the possibility of scientists deliberately spreading a more contageous but less dangerous variant. But of course genetical manipulation is not without risk....

Anyway: I am hoping with you :)

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On 12/23/2021 at 5:53 PM, JSngry said:

I'm not a virus psychologist, but if anybody here is, please advise.

Is Omicron an effort by the virus to stay alive by any means, i.e. - willing to spread more at the expense of potency?

Or...

Is it an attempt to sacrifice immediate potency for the sake of getting a chance to regroup into a more potent form when the opportunity presents itself?

Of course, viruses don't "think" (that we know of yet...), but patterns of survival in all life forms...possibilities exist. Some strategies lead to increase, some lead to decrease (and even extinction).

I guess we'll know when we get there. But the lack of a really consistent population strategy seems to be to almost exponentially increase the range of variables, and more variable is probably not what we should feel good about in terms of a possible positive end game? Right?

Real science people, speak up here, please.

It's more just the result of constant mutations that produces these variants of concern, than any strategy that the virus might have. SARS-CoV2 is an RNA virus, so it tends to mutate with very high frequency. If enough of those mutations result in a change that allows the virus to infect cells easier, or get around antibodies, or spread from host to host in higher numbers, then that will be come the dominant variant strain. So, it's mostly luck.

With the possibility that omicron arose from an immunocompromised patient who was unable to fully clear the virus from their body and thus allow the virus to continuously undergo mutation until the sequence for omicron became established which could then spread through populations with low vaccination rates, it is more important than ever to get more people around the world vaccinated.

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I was getting ready to head out for my PT session (foot) when I received a call from my therapist: he has Covid. His wife is also a physical therapist in the largest hospital in our area and she has it as do several of her colleagues so he may have contacted it from her. 

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On 12/24/2021 at 8:00 AM, bresna said:

https://assets.amuniversal.com/2b79e060e35a013972ba005056a9545d.jpeg

Not fair. I don't even want to put any stress on the Flu... A person can still get COVID and even die after the vaccine. It happens every day. When was the last time someone got Polio and Measles after being vaccinated?

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1 minute ago, Dmitry said:

Not fair. I don't even want to put any stress on the Flu... A person can still get COVID and even die after the vaccine. It happens every day. When was the last time someone got Polio and Measles after being vaccinated?

There's a difference though. The polio vaccine prevents the recipient from getting polio.  This vaccine doesn't prevent Covid, it's not the magic bullet that the polio vaccine is.  Nobody claims that it is supposed to prevent you from getting Covid, except those that don't understand what the vaccine is.

It does help minimize the effects of Covid if/when you get it.  Per the attached table, the death rate for those who are fully vaccinated is 0.54 deaths per 100,000 in the U.S.  It's 3.47 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.  

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

That being the case, the vaccine clearly helps save lives.  I fail to understand why anyone would not want to get vaccinated. 

And my hope is that at some point science develops a Covid vaccine that truly prevents Covid, like the polio vaccine does with polio.  I think we'll get there at some point.

I wish we would all put our trust in science to eventually solve this.  And continue to help save us in the meantime.  

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2 minutes ago, Aggie87 said:

There's a difference though. The polio vaccine prevents the recipient from getting polio.  This vaccine doesn't prevent Covid, it's not the magic bullet that the polio vaccine is.  Nobody claims that it is supposed to prevent you from getting Covid, except those that don't understand what the vaccine is.

It does help minimize the effects of Covid if/when you get it.  Per the attached table, the death rate for those who are fully vaccinated is 0.54 deaths per 100,000 in the U.S.  It's 3.47 per 100,000 among the unvaccinated.  

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination

That being the case, the vaccine clearly helps save lives.  I fail to understand why anyone would not want to get vaccinated. 

And my hope is that at some point science develops a Covid vaccine that truly prevents Covid, like the polio vaccine does with polio.  I think we'll get there at some point.

I wish we would all put our trust in science to eventually solve this.  And continue to help save us in the meantime.  

I'm not disagreeing with you. Vaccine definitely helps.I've got all of my Covid shots, after having a lengthy Covid pneumonia and other related crap.

And all three shots put me down like nothing else. If the fourth shot comes around, I'm not sure I will take it. It's just too taxing on my body.

This comic strip is not hitting the mark with me. Most of these vaccines are given to little children, and parents make the decision whether to have them administered [why not...that's another story]. Had they waited till adulthood, those who refuse the COVID vaccine, would ostensibly refuse the other ones as well. 

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