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Post Pandemic Covid Poll, Looking backward, looking ahead  

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In Kansas City, my very best friend’s (essentially common-law) wife — and also her mother (essentially his common-law mother-in-law) — they both died of Covid back around Thanksgiving of 2020 — just a month or two before vaccines were available (though only the elderly qualified at the very first).

The two of them (meaning my friend and his partner) had been dating for years, and then living together (for even more years)… …for around 20 years total, iirc.

Edited by Rooster_Ties
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Three people I personally knew died from COVID - my unvaccinated uncle, a young healthy female coworker who elected not to get vaccinated (she was also the mother of three young children) who sat 3 desks away from mine, and an admin assistant's father (don't know his vax status).  You'll never convince me COVID was as trivial as many tried to make it out to be.  I believe that at least 2 of the 3 would still be alive today had they chosen to get vaccinated.  

I also still have anger that the previous President trivialized masks during the onset of this pandemic.  I am convinced at least 150-200K in the U.S. lost their lives unnecessarily because of that dismissal, and the resulting early spread of the virus before vaccines were available.  Any attempt to discuss this calmly (with factual information) with right-wingers on FB or elsewhere usually results in a "laughing face" emoji in response to any attempt at a discussion.  Instead of responding with any educated response.  That is also maddening that people won't take the time to actually educate themselves.

Edited by Aggie87
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21 minutes ago, BillF said:

You don't have to live in Shanghai to know it's too early to talk of "post pandemic".

That's a country that foolishly persists in "zero covid" with minimal vaccine uptake (and a shitty vaccine at that).

I don't know what "zero" covid will do for future variants but the fact is that here in the states, weeks after Omicron 2 became main source of Covid, we don't have spikes in hospital usage or death rates. Something is different this time and is probably due to Omicron 1's trip thru the population, and its measurable reduction in potency. I do think Fauci is right about the pandemic in the US.

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1 hour ago, Aggie87 said:

 

I also still have anger that the previous President trivialized masks during the onset of this pandemic.  I am convinced at least 150-200K in the U.S. lost their lives unnecessarily because of that dismissal, and the resulting early spread of the virus before vaccines were available.  Any attempt to discuss this calmly (with factual information) with right-wingers on FB or elsewhere usually results in a "laughing face" emoji in response to any attempt at a discussion.  Instead of responding with any educated response.  That is also maddening that people won't take the time to actually educate themselves.

Please review these graphs and advise why they are not evidence that mask usage did not have a lot of effect. I am prepared to be educated (and I myself wore a mask quite regularly, KN95, until I was vaccinated and boosted.) First one is US States with and without mask mandates, cumulatively; second is Germany (effective mask mandate per survey results regarding use) vs Sweden (minimal mask usage per surveys).

 

 

 

4.17.22-All-States.png

 

4.17.22.-German-Sweden.png

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Between masks during the big surges (data might be a little inconclusive - and that means just that, does not mean proven ineffective - but geez, common sense, really!) and vaccines over the long haul, I am cautiously optimistic about being cautiously optimistic. I trust Fauci but not implicitly and not in any way infallibly, but I do think he shoots straight with real-time data as best he can.

Speaking of which, so good to see Dr. Birx emerging from the shadows, still rocking those scarves and this time with her hair un-putup. She's an attractive lady, a smart lady, an sharp dresser, and I'm glad that both she and Fauci were there and fought the good fight as best they could.

Now - ask how many people have gotten their third booster (we have) and their fourth (we haven't, not yet, but fully intend to). I think if you want a predictor of how "over" this is really going to be, I think that might be as close to a predictor and you're going to get.

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OK, set aside the US State results, where one might reasonably presume an undercount in the states where masks were not mandated ... how does one explain the death rates in Germany vs Sweden, where approach to mask wearing was so obviously different? Germany had a worse and more sustained top peak, while Sweden had a marginally higher peak for winter 21-22.

What accounts for it, with both rich Western nations with I am assuming similar access to vaccines when they came available? If masks were so important why doesn't Sweden, which was like an entire country of Trumpers when it comes to mask usage, show any sort of measurable difference in deaths?

Again, I wore one. I insisted on buying a better one (my wife bought her own for her truck, shitty "surgical" masks that were barely a step above a bandana).  But I'm looking at the data and I am not at all feeling what Aggie is asserting.

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Visiting my Dad this week (right now) outside of St. Louis, and yesterday I got him his 2nd booster shot (his 4th shot overall) — all 4 Pfizer.

My wife and I have not yet gotten our 2nd booster shots — but we intend to in the next few weeks. I got the one-shot J&J initially last March, and then a Moderna booster in November — and I’m thinking of getting Pfizer for my 2nd booster (so I’ll have literally had one of each).

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Dan, the World Health Organization believes masks suppress the spread of Covid. So does the Mayo Clinic. As does Johns Hopkins.  So does the CDC.  I can go on but I hope you get the point.  

Legitimate disease/virologists/medical/health organizations all seem to believe masks suppress the spread of COVID, which logically means that fewer lives would be resultingly lost.  

I believe them.  You apparently don't (?).

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks#:~:text=Masks%20should%20be%20used%20as,as%20effective%20as%20possible.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

If you don't believe in any group of scientist/medical professionals (all of whom have nothing to gain by lying about this), I'm not sure how to respond further.  Or what you're actually disagreeing with.

Edited by Aggie87
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11 hours ago, Aggie87 said:

Dan, the World Health Organization believes masks suppress the spread of Covid. So does the Mayo Clinic. As does Johns Hopkins.  So does the CDC.  I can go on but I hope you get the point.  

Legitimate disease/virologists/medical/health organizations all seem to believe masks suppress the spread of COVID, which logically means that fewer lives would be resultingly lost.  

I believe them.  You apparently don't (?).

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks#:~:text=Masks%20should%20be%20used%20as,as%20effective%20as%20possible.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

If you don't believe in any group of scientist/medical professionals (all of whom have nothing to gain by lying about this), I'm not sure how to respond further.  Or what you're actually disagreeing with.

When we were helping care for my MIL while she was battling some very aggressive cancer up to October of last year, there was a lot of time spent at the hospital. They would not allow any cloth masks by themselves. Everyone had to wear surgical masks as baseline. There's a reason(s) the medical community held to that standard and continue to do so, and I don't think it's anything nefarious. It's because proper masking works. 

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11 hours ago, Aggie87 said:

Dan, the World Health Organization believes masks suppress the spread of Covid. So does the Mayo Clinic. As does Johns Hopkins.  So does the CDC.  I can go on but I hope you get the point.  

Legitimate disease/virologists/medical/health organizations all seem to believe masks suppress the spread of COVID, which logically means that fewer lives would be resultingly lost.  

I believe them.  You apparently don't (?).

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks#:~:text=Masks%20should%20be%20used%20as,as%20effective%20as%20possible.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-mask/art-20485449

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-face-masks-what-you-need-to-know

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

If you don't believe in any group of scientist/medical professionals (all of whom have nothing to gain by lying about this), I'm not sure how to respond further.  Or what you're actually disagreeing with.

I was especially motivated to post by your specific statement:

 I am convinced at least 150-200K in the U.S. lost their lives unnecessarily

I believe we're approaching 1 million deaths so at minimum, you are asserting 15-20% due to mask usage or lack thereof. Had you said something closer to 50,000 I probably would not have posted.

It's fine to appeal to authority as you do, but why can't anyone answer the question of evidence? We've been told and in some cases forced to mask for 2 plus years. And we have 2 + years of data about cases and deaths and different mask policies and usages.

Why does the effect of masks not show up in the statistics? 

Why are Sweden and Germany's experiences so similar, while mask usage was so very different?

 

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15 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

Please review these graphs and advise why they are not evidence that mask usage did not have a lot of effect. I am prepared to be educated (and I myself wore a mask quite regularly, KN95, until I was vaccinated and boosted.) First one is US States with and without mask mandates, cumulatively; second is Germany (effective mask mandate per survey results regarding use) vs Sweden (minimal mask usage per surveys).

 

 

 

4.17.22-All-States.png

In my opinion, both of these curves show an uptick of cases due to a lack of masks. Note the dates. These upticks in deaths are correlated to holidays. Everyone takes their mask off at the Thanksgiving and Christmas dinner table. Everyone that I know at least.

To put numbers to it, if that Thanksgiving-New Years bump in 2021 wasn't there and that curve was essentially flattened out, there are ~250 additional deaths per 100K due to people taking their masks off at the holiday table. That works out to ~250,000 additional deaths.

Actually, looking at the Germany/Sweden graph, it lines up similarly. Sweden has an additional national holiday celebration on January 6th FYI.

Edited by bresna
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15 minutes ago, bresna said:

In my opinion, both of these curves show an uptick of cases due to a lack of masks. Note the dates. These upticks in deaths are correlated to holidays. Everyone takes their mask off at the Thanksgiving and Christmas dinner table. Everyone that I know at least.

To put numbers to it, if that Thanksgiving-New Years bump in 2021 wasn't there and that curve was essentially flattened out, there are ~250 additional deaths per 100K due to people taking their masks off at the holiday table. That works out to ~250,000 additional deaths.

Actually, looking at the Germany/Sweden graph, it lines up similarly. Sweden has an additional national holiday celebration on January 6th FYI.

Your math is completely off to try to get to 250,000 "explained" deaths because the Y axis is cases not deaths.

How come Germany peaks January 15, 2021 and stays above Sweden the whole period thru to this supposed Swedish holiday effect? And, somehow Sweden had a Christmas/New Years surge one year, and then had none the next year and only increased in January 2022 for this holiday? 

Let's keep in mind too that Sweden had vanishingly small mask usage per the cited survey and Germany had quite high mask usage. 

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16 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

OK, set aside the US State results, where one might reasonably presume an undercount in the states where masks were not mandated ... how does one explain the death rates in Germany vs Sweden, where approach to mask wearing was so obviously different? Germany had a worse and more sustained top peak, while Sweden had a marginally higher peak for winter 21-22.

What accounts for it, with both rich Western nations with I am assuming similar access to vaccines when they came available? If masks were so importantAccording  why doesn't Sweden, which was like an entire country of Trumpers when it comes to mask usage, show any sort of measurable difference in deaths?

Again, I wore one. I insisted on buying a better one (my wife bought her own for her truck, shitty "surgical" masks that were barely a step above a bandana).  But I'm looking at the data and I am not at all feeling what Aggie is asserting.

According to this article in Nature. Sweden had 10 times the death rate as Norway in 2020 a country that is more comparable in that (according to this article) both countries are sparsely inhabited (compared to, I guess other rich European countries such as Germany. )

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5

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11 minutes ago, medjuck said:

According to this article in Nature. Sweden had 10 times the death rate as Norway in 2020 a country that is more comparable in that (according to this article) both countries are sparsely inhabited (compared to, I guess other rich European countries such as Germany. )

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01097-5

Thank you!! I knew that was what I’d heard and read — and it’s really disappointing to see how badly Sweden dropped the ball on this. Almost unconscionable, really — is more like it (though no less than what half of this country and how our then leadership handled it).

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4 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

Your math is completely off to try to get to 250,000 "explained" deaths because the Y axis is cases not deaths.

I saw deaths in the Germany/Sweden plot and missed that it switched to cases in the US plot.

That's still a ton of new cases due to the holidays. My wife works in a school and in January/February of this year, the COVID cases resulted in a huge number of teacher and student absences. At one point, about 15% of their teachers were out. In some classes, 80% of the students would be out due to the spread after the holidays.

4 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

How come Germany peaks January 15, 2021 and stays above Sweden the whole period thru to this supposed Swedish holiday effect? And, somehow Sweden had a Christmas/New Years surge one year, and then had none the next year and only increased in January 2022 for this holiday?

I'd venture to say that if you can figure this out, the CDC would like you to come work for them. This kind of stuff requires all kinds of analysis. There are doctors & scientists who do this for a living and they can't figure it all out so we're not going to figure it out here, that's for sure. :)

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