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It seems amazing to me that this thread just goes on and on, with nothing new really being said, except a trotting out of the same old arguments. At this point, I would think people would just say "I've made my points," and move on.

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Just curious if anyone else here besides GoodSpeak thinks that Bonds would have hit 73 or McGwire would have hit 70 without juicing.

Not a chance. Goody's in his own world here, as his arguments just aren't supported by science. There's no question that Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod, and Manny were/are great hitters... some of the best hitters the game has ever seen... but there's also no question that the PEDs enhanced their power numbers.

The 61 shots hit by Maris is the record, as far as I'm concerned... although Ruth's 60 was so far beyond the league average in that year that it would be hard to argue his season wasn't the greatest of all time.

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There is an interesting article by a Professor named R.G Tobin about this topic (home runs and 'roids). I just came across it this week. It is available as a .pdf here. I think some might find it interesting reading.

I was a big McGwire fan from day one (I was an A's fan back in the '80s). I would have liked to have heard him say, "I cheated myself and the game. Although my swing got better over the years, we will never know if it was improved technique, or the drugs coupled with better technique, that allowed me to hit 70 HRs. Maybe without the steroids I would have hit 50. My greatest achievement could have been a performance-enhanced sham." But McGwire clearly cannot confront this likely truth, as it would destroy the guy's psyche. He has to live with himself, so it is reasonable that he has to convince himself that his statistics are "legit." I think the same is probably true for the other suspects from the '90s.

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I get you on that, but are you suggesting that Bonds/McGwire/Sosa/whoever never hit flies that only travelled to the warning track? Surely you can admit that they occasionally hit balls like that, that either were caught for an out, or were doubles or whatever.

The homer that McGwire hit to break the record was a freakish line drive home run. The line drive home run was also a steroid era special.

I dunno.

Rod Carew was famous for that.

Just curious if anyone else here besides GoodSpeak thinks that Bonds would have hit 73 or McGwire would have hit 70 without juicing.

Not a chance. Goody's in his own world here, as his arguments just aren't supported by science. There's no question that Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod, and Manny were/are great hitters... some of the best hitters the game has ever seen... but there's also no question that the PEDs enhanced their power numbers.

The 61 shots hit by Maris is the record, as far as I'm concerned... although Ruth's 60 was so far beyond the league average in that year that it would be hard to argue his season wasn't the greatest of all time.

None of the opposing arguments are supported by science either, my friend.

And if you want to believe that a HR which lands in the lower deck is somehow less of a HR that goes into the Bay or out of the park, be my guest.

But you would only be fooling yourself.

Still a HR.

I get your point. If these guys [McGwire and Bonds] were just your average, run-of-the-mill baseball players I'd totally agree with you, Aggie. But they weren't. These were the greatest hitters of all-time.

These guys were hitting moon shots well before the so-called steroids era. They didn't get cheapy HRs which barely cleared the fence. These were bonafide no-doubters, my friend. I have been to numerous Giants and A's games when both McGwire and Bonds played [and before all that steroid crap started] and I can tell you when they got into one, you knew it was going yard. Make no mistake.

So let's assume for a moment that muscle mass somehow makes the ball travel further when hit, OK? Then those HRs might go 20 feet less far maybe? They would have still gone out, Aggie. These were upper-deckers half the time. So the ball might land in the fifth row of the bleachers instead of halfway to the Oakland Bay Bridge.

Still a HR, Dude. ^_^

I get you on that, but are you suggesting that Bonds/McGwire/Sosa/whoever never hit flies that only travelled to the warning track? Surely you can admit that they occasionally hit balls like that, that either were caught for an out, or were doubles or whatever.

Those are the hits that would have been more possible to become HRs, with the use of steroids. How many of those in a season would Bonds/McGwire have hit? Without steroids - a double or out. With steroids, an extra Home Run.

Oh sure. I saw a ton of fly-outs, too. But when the wind isn't blowing out, that can happen to anyone. Besides, haven't you ever hit a baseball/softball/racquetball/golfball/tennis ball where you didn't feel you got all of it? I have and I am certain McGwire and Bonds have, too. Add to that all the BBs Bonds got and the total HR count might have been 900 if the opposing pitchers had any guts.

Add steroids to that pop-up....it's still going to be a pop-up. It is a mishit. Hit it flush, and it goes out. Then there is weather, who is pitching and if he's got his game on, are they throwing around the hitter, etc...too many factors involved to say unequivically one way or the other, Aggie.

As we have over the past couple of years, we'll have to agree to disagree then.

Fair enough, Aggie.

Edited by GoodSpeak
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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Interesting, though not earth-shattering, news about the Clemens grand jury:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2010/04/23/2010-04-23_rockets_bloody_mess.html

[...]

But as wild and disruptive as the revelation was, McNamee had in fact told a handful of people about the needles, gauze and drug ampoules that he would later testify he had tucked into a FedEx box labeled "CLEM" and stashed away in the basement of his home in Queens.

The government has contacted a number of those people, including Wall Street investment manager Anthony Corso, who appeared Thursday before the D.C. grand jury investigating whether Clemens lied to Congress when he said he had never taken performance-enhancing drugs.

The news here is pretty clear: They must have found, and presented to the grand jury, DNA evidence linking Clemens to PEDs through the medical waste McNamee turned over. Otherwise why would they present secondary evidence about the legitimacy of the medical waste if the medical waste didn't show Clemens to have used steroids and HGH?

Its a slow process, and we still have no idea if they tracked down a source for the PEDs (will Canseco 'fess up? He's scheduled to go before the grand jury early in May). But its clear to me that they are going to get their indictment, and if Clemens takes it to trial, all the ugliness is going to come out.

And win or lose, there goes the HoF, because the evidence will be sufficient for enough voters to lump him in with McGuire. And I really don't buy the "he was a Hall of Famer before the 'roids" claim. Two Cy Youngs, 192 wins and only 39 in the previous four years. Then 'roids, his fastball got its giddyup back, and he wins three more Cy Youngs and goes well over 300 wins. If he continues in a normal progession from age 34, Clemens is Schilling without the post-season resume. Borderline at best.

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Barry Bonds, OTOH, was suspeded for ZERO games.

Personally, I think the BoSox need to give back their WS rings.

Steroids enhance a player's ability to hit HRs dontcha know?

Edited by GoodSpeak
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  • 2 weeks later...

And I really don't buy the "he was a Hall of Famer before the 'roids" claim. Two Cy Youngs, 192 wins and only 39 in the previous four years. Then 'roids, his fastball got its giddyup back, and he wins three more Cy Youngs and goes well over 300 wins. If he continues in a normal progession from age 34, Clemens is Schilling without the post-season resume. Borderline at best.

I'll admit he wouldn't have had as strong of a case, but don't forget the shortened seasons of '94 & '95 with 115 & 144 games respectively that had an effect on counting stats.

Also funny to see you mentioning pitcher's wins. The Red Sox were a sub-.500 team except for '95. He was cruising along w/ about a K per inning and a 2.85 ERA in '94 when the strike ended the season. His last year for Boston he led the league in Ks.

Clemens may be a megalomanic asshole but when he left Boston he was 410 Ks away from 3000 and so even if he had faded away like an change up aging trickster he would have hit that mark which would have helped nudge into the hall. And pre-"bulk" he already had 3 Cy Youngs, 1 MVP, 4 ERA titles, and was a 5 time leader in shutouts. (And some lousy playoff appearances.) To me it looks like he could have faded out and still made it.

Edited by Quincy
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Funny, I'd forgotten the '87 Cy Young. :wacko:

Maybe he's a more solid candidate pre-Toronto and pre-McNamee. The reality though is that he wasn't all that impressive the last four years in Boston, even ignoring W-L record. One season with 200 innings. Two of his three highest seasons for WHIP. One season with an ERA+ that stood with the best seasons of his career.

Put it this way: Was Duquette out of line in referring to his entering "the twilight of his career"? Or was that supported by both his age and his recent stats?

Yeah he was good enough to get some votes for the Hall, if he had hung on for a few years - but would it be that much different from Morris or Blyleven's claims on the Hall? (Well maybe Morris, Blyleven from the beginning was a slam-dunk IMHO).

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Maybe he's a more solid candidate pre-Toronto and pre-McNamee. The reality though is that he wasn't all that impressive the last four years in Boston, even ignoring W-L record. One season with 200 innings.

Again the '94 strike fades from our memory, but he was averaging 7 innings a start through 24, so he would have easily passed 200 IP had the season gone 162 (though obviously he'd need to stay healthy.) He was on his way to having an excellent season that year (as was Dwight Evans, who probably lost more as far as a legacy from the strike.) The wins weren't there but he led in ERA+.

Put it this way: Was Duquette out of line in referring to his entering "the twilight of his career"? Or was that supported by both his age and his recent stats?

I don't think he was. However when a pitcher has more K's than IP it's still a hell of a twilight. But given the huge amount of money Clemens was demanding and as you point out, some worrisome signs of decline, I think it was rational to let him move on. Plus they had a better option to replace him. :)

Yeah he was good enough to get some votes for the Hall, if he had hung on for a few years - but would it be that much different from Morris or Blyleven's claims on the Hall? (Well maybe Morris, Blyleven from the beginning was a slam-dunk IMHO).

No Cys for Blyleven or Morris. I don't think anyone who has won 3 (by that point) has been denied. And the MVP is a cherry on top, though Denny McLain had one and didn't come near Cooperstown for his own problems. Who knows how Clemens would have finished his career "organically," but what may have kept him from being a first ballot pitcher was his playoff reputation. Getting ejected from the game vs. the A's, along with his less than knockout performance in the '86 World Series may hurt him. But had he puttered out without the aid of his medicine, he's still over 3000 K, perhaps 230 wins or so, and the past hardware. If Drysdale and Hunter are in with less than that, he's likely in as well*. His comps by age from late 20s thru mid-30s before the 'roids go Seaver, Gooden and back to Seaver. We're not talking about Dave Goltz here.

*Though given the history of Hall of Fame voting, who knows!

Edited by Quincy
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Give back the World Series rings the BoSox won.

The Oakland A's and NY Yankees can do the same.

You guys talk the talk, but you will not walk the walk.

Lay off.

Edited by GoodSpeak
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  • 2 months later...

Former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette - who famously said that Roger was "entering the twilight of his career" before be became Roidger and cheated Father Time and the rest of baseball - gave an interview in which he said something somewhat surprising:

Butch Stearns: "Will Roger ever be welcomed back in into Fenway?”

Dan Duquette: "Well, I don’t know, there’s been a lot of water under the bridge since Clemens left town and I think there’s more information that will come out here before we’re done with this current saga in Roger’s professional life…”

Butch Stearns: "Should we as Red Sox fans expect to hear more about pre-1996 for his 13 years in Boston?”

Dan Duquette: “I’ll just say this…let’s let it play out a little bit more, I think there is more information and evidence that will show that Roger used performance enhancing drugs in a significant way.”

http://www.thepulsenetwork.com/

What's surprising is that I don't know why Duquette would be privy to such information, but at the same time, unless he knows something, why go out on a limb and say such a thing? It would be easier to just say something about the fact that the grand jury is meeting on his potential perjury case, let's see what happens with that. But no, he asserts "more information and evidence" - sure sounds like something we haven't heard about previously.

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Steriods don't make you throw the ball accurately and expertly, Dan.

Skill, natural talent and traing however, will.

Steroids are performance enhancing drugs. They are used in concert with the training you refer to, helping athletes recover faster, build more muscle and stamina (throw more pitches, extend careers?), etc. This is pretty much universally accepted. Why anyone would feel it necessary to take the position that steroids (or other performance-enhancing substances like HGH) have no effect on an athlete's performance is beyond me.

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Steriods don't make you throw the ball accurately and expertly, Dan.

Skill, natural talent and traing however, will.

Steroids are performance enhancing drugs. They are used in concert with the training you refer to, helping athletes recover faster, build more muscle and stamina (throw more pitches, extend careers?), etc. This is pretty much universally accepted. Why anyone would feel it necessary to take the position that steroids (or other performance-enhancing substances like HGH) have no effect on an athlete's performance is beyond me.

Enhance performance?

So does aspirin, Ibuprofen, cortisone shots and that boo-boo juice trainers routinely spray on hitters nailed by a pitch.

Why people like Dan continue to ignore the obvious is beyond me.

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