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Covid Vaccination Poll Update


Covid Vaccination Poll as life returns to "normal"  

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On 6/5/2021 at 8:04 AM, Dan Gould said:

I am not talking about whether they should get vaccinated. I am saying that the mask-opposed are more likely to have natural immunity and that is part of why we are, at this time, doing rather well, despite loosening or elimination of restrictions.

Also, I don't think the first half of your sentence is entirely accurate on either point.

The first half of my sentence actually is accurate; if you don't get vaccinated, you are more likely to become infected with a mutated strain of the virus, as the immunity from prior infection is not as robust. You are welcome to check PubMed if you'd like to continue discussing this. 

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On 6/5/2021 at 5:04 AM, Dan Gould said:

I am not talking about whether they should get vaccinated. I am saying that the mask-opposed are more likely to have natural immunity and that is part of why we are, at this time, doing rather well, despite loosening or elimination of restrictions

Do you mean the mask-opposed are more liable to have already contracted the disease?  

https://www.harvardpress.com/Features/Feature-Articles/to-your-health-the-swiss-cheese-model-of-pandemic-defense

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Finally, it's my turn! Will get my first shot Moderna/Pfizer on June 24th. The second at the end of July. My wife was born one year later (1991) so she will get invited probably this week as well but we decided to wait for her, as she is pregnant. She will get her vaccination after the baby's birth in October.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/4/2021 at 6:13 AM, Dan Gould said:

I think (hope) that everyone is missing just how many people do have natural immunity from having had it. That is the best explanation (IMO) for the vastly lower rates we now see, even though vaccination efforts are running out of willing arms and skeptics (as opposed to the implacably opposed) now are free to run around without masks in most places.

I think that's probably part of it - looking at vaccination rates only without considering prevalence of prior infection leads to underestimates of immunity in the population.

This is true even if vaccination provides better immunity than prior infection.  (Which I believe there is evidence of.)

*However* - I'd be careful about drawing really strong inferences from the current decline in cases until more time passes.  We have positive weather effects (maybe finally winding down as folks crowd into air-conditioned indoor spaces in the South).  There has been a lot of unexplained variation in the ebb and flow of COVID that has defied explanation.

Two more comments:

1) If you look at the states with relatively high and rising caseloads, they are mostly states with low vaccination rates (MO, NV, UT, AR, AZ).  And if you look at the states where very low and falling caseloads, they are mostly states with high vaccination rates (VT, MA, MD, CT, DC).

2) The combination of vaccine and infection immunity is a partial "equalizer" in the near term.  But over time, some areas of the country look set for very low caseloads (due to repeated vaccination) and others look set for endemic infection (due to immunity fading over time). 

  

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4 hours ago, JSngry said:

I'm already waiting for info about booster shots. Maybe too soon, but still, I want to be ready when the time comes. So, conversation from science, starting when?

My understanding based on Israeli data is that vaccine-based immunity is lasting longer than anticipated - ie at least a year.  But that doesn’t take into account the possibility of increasingly evasive variants.

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3 hours ago, JSngry said:

Yeah, variants. And in the Potential Petri Dish of Unvaccinated America...help me, Rhonda Fleming.

I’d worry less about that small Petri dish and more about the massive Petri dish of billions of unvaccinated people in developed countries that couldn’t afford to line up vaccine supplies early.  Getting them jabbed is essential to reducing future mutations

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"almost certainly" is some bit of an oxymoron, is it not?

8 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

I’d worry less about that small Petri dish and more about the massive Petri dish of billions of unvaccinated people in developed countries that couldn’t afford to line up vaccine supplies early.  Getting them jabbed is essential to reducing future mutations

That too. But we might be unique in having a "significant" portion of the population that can, but won't. Will not.

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15 hours ago, erwbol said:

This virus almost certainly escaped from a lab in Wuhan.

There is a big difference between “it is possible that” and “almost certain”.  (Worth reading this NYT article)

9 hours ago, JSngry said:

"almost certainly" is some bit of an oxymoron, is it not?

That too. But we might be unique in having a "significant" portion of the population that can, but won't. Will not.

Not unique… pre-COVID vaccine skepticism in the US was lower than in many continental European countries.  Maybe it’s different this time, maybe not.

Edited by Guy Berger
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Just now, Guy Berger said:

There is a big difference between “it is possible that” and “almost certain”

If you only consume and believe the mainstream media, you wouldn't have taken the possibility seriously until perhaps very recently. The narrative is being aggressively controlled. Knowledgeable people (on the left) were/are being put away as cranks or right wingers and 'white supremacists'.

Sleep tight.

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