J Larsen

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Posts posted by J Larsen


  1. It isn't quite my style, but I wouldn't turn my nose up at it as a gift:

    http://www.brownharrisstevens.com/detail.aspx?id=364979#

    I was waiting for them to say, in the small print at the bottom, "no pets, no children", but they didn't.

    Five wood burning fireplaces! And staff quarters, so you can employ your own live-in lumberjack to cut down half of Central Park :)

    Can you actually BUY firewood in Manhttan?

    MG

    Sure. Fireplaces aren't THAT uncommon.


  2. PS: Just saw this in one on-line obit: "At the time of his death, Ledger had just finished playing the villain The Joker in "The Dark Knight," the latest installment in the Batman series. The film is to open in July."

    His version of The Joker appears to be a little different than Nicholson:

    medium_Batman%20-%20The%20Joker-d3xjfbwm.jpg

    The makeup sure is casual...I like it.

    One thing that gets me, is the location. I have a good friend that has a long time bartending gig a few blocks away. Our own JLarsen lives in that neighborhood, a bit North of there, I think. But then, that's the city...these things happen and there's a lot of people there...

    Yep, I'm just a few blocks away. But it is a celebrity-heavy part of town (even a couple in my building).

    Anyway, this was sad news. He did seem to be a very promising talent.


  3. I bet we'll soon see CD collecting done with the zeal and possessiveness of 78rpm and LP collectors.

    What you say has the ring of truth, Chris.

    My first thought upon reading your prognostication was that people would want to collect "hard copies". But upon reflection, I think the audio fidelity will have something to do with it too, just as 50s LPs are sought after, while 80s LPs are not.

    Just to clarify, a lot of '80s LPs - especially in the punk and post-punk genres (not to mention 45s) - are quite collectible and rare. CDs have been collectible for a while now, especially some of the Japanese discs which are limited and almost instantly OOP.

    Haven't you found that the value of those records has really plummeted over the last several years, though? I have a bunch of those records, and used to have a LOT more, and have found that a lot of former $100 - $200 records are going for $20 - $40 now.


  4. I think the most underrated Hendrix song is Long Hot Summer Night. The beginning sounds like T Monk. The key change in the middle is wild. The backing vocals are great. The switching back and forth between jazz and e flat blues licks is hot. All around great song.


  5. Unless you do your homework, namely spending an hour a week researching for each stock you own, "You won't beat the market, and you'll probably lose money," he writes. [Guy: It will take a lot more research than that...

    Nonsense. A person does not have to spend 52 hours a year (or more) for each stock owned to "beat the market," that's just silly.

    Cramer is an ass, but at least now what he's preaching makes more sense, especially compared to his previous churn churn churn ways.

    I agree that people experienced in following the market don't need to spend an hour per week per stock to beat the market. However, someone inexperienced could easily spend more time and still underperform the market. I maintain that it is relatively simple to identify an undervalued security*. It is far more difficult to predict exactly when it will stop being undervalued, and that is the skill that really leads one to making money.

    *It is at least as easy to identify an overvalued security, but generally more expensive and time consuming to profit in that situation.

    I'm curious -- since you guys (if I understand you correctly) believe that there is a way to routinely generate returns beyond those of a simple market index without a greater degree of risk as a freelance investor while doing less than 52 hrs of research per year, have you succeed in doing so?

    (I don't intend this to sound confrontational, but I am curious.)

    Guy

    Well, that's not the proposition you originally set forth, which was 52 hrs per stock per year.

    And yes, I have succeeded in beating the market, regularly. Look at it as an economist, it is tempting to believe that this should only happen by chance, because the markets are efficient, etc. But the reality is that there are some very, very big players out on the market that an economist would view as "irrational." For instance, there are managers that control hundreds of millions of dollars in investments that play momentum strategies, which tend to lead to market overreactions to events. A person like me, who is willing to be flexible with his investment horizon and doesn't mind a little extra risk, can turn this type of occurrence into a handsome profit. That being said, I have the advantage of having studied market behavior intensively for the last few years, and I monitor the markets as part of my job.

    Which reminds me, I will probably be posting very rarely from now through the next few months, due to work obligations and extensive business travel. So if I don't reply to this thread anymore, that's all that is going on.


  6. edit: reading back and trying to understand what you mean: dollars are still worth the same within the US, unless you're competing with a European to buy an apartment or something, so that's why the barter thing doesn't make sense. it's the purchasing power outside the US that's affected.

    That's not entirely correct (though there is a kernal of truth there). But instead of arguing that, I point out that this has nothing to do with the topic at hand: the impact of file sharing. The declining dollar would lead to even higher foreign sales of Nessa CDs but-for illegal file sharing. Back on topic, please.


  7. Negative reviews are every bit as useful as positive reviews. I've only got so much time to check out new music. There are certain people on the board who have tastes that tend to align with my own. If one of those people had piped in with "woah, J, you really ought to give OP another listen and pay attention to X, Y and Z," then I might have. Seeing instead that my take on OP resonates with many others is useful.

    Like many others, I have a hard time seeing what the issue is? If I really, really, really had to pick a favorite album of all time, there is a good chance that it would be Interstellar Space. Feel free to start a thread ripping that one to shreds . It's no skin off my back.


  8. Sorry to hear that Moose. I suck at these things; I have a hard time saying anything that isn't super-cliched (it's got to be rough,it will probably stay that way for a while but I'm sure you'll be okay... (I do genuinely think those things but feel silly wiriting it)) so I will leave it to others to say anything intelligent and useful.

    If I were you I would focus on getting out of LA. Weather aside, OR is really nice. I've put in some years there and still miss aspects of it. Something about the place just seems well-suited to getting a fresh start. I know in Portland the people are very approachable and it's easy to meet new people quickly; perhaps that is it.

    Anyway, best of luck.