Bird Flu and the 1918 pandemic, which

[Christiern]

Not a peep out of you, Dan, for this not being in the political forum, It's about bird flu, not Byrd -- CA

EDITORIAL

October 8, 2005

Bird Flu and the 1918 Pandemic

There are both frightening and promising implications in this week's announcement that research teams have deciphered the genetic sequence of the devastating 1918 influenza virus and have synthesized the lethal germ in a high-security laboratory. The feat is a scientific tour de force that should provide important insights on the best way to respond to the avian influenza strain now circulating in Asia. The worrisome news is that the 1918 virus appears to have jumped directly from birds to humans, and that the genetic changes that allowed it to do so are already beginning to appear in the avian strain, known as H5N1, which has killed large numbers of birds and about 60 people in four Asian countries.

The two most recent global pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components. Now it turns out that the far more lethal 1918 virus, which killed perhaps 20 to 100 million people, was most likely an avian strain that jumped directly into humans. That gives today's avian strain two routes to wreak havoc among humans. It could either mix some of its genes with human influenza, like the 1957 and 1968 viruses, or it could mutate on its own to become easily transmissible among humans, like the 1918 virus.

So far, the avian virus has rarely jumped from birds to humans and seldom spread from one human to another. But it may be traveling slowly down the same evolutionary path as the 1918 virus. Two top federal health officials said that the H5N1 virus has already acquired five of the 10 genetic sequence changes associated with human-to-human transmission of the 1918 virus.

That does not necessarily mean that catastrophe is imminent. Nobody knows how likely it is that further mutations will occur or how long the process may take. The avian virus has been around for decades without turning into a monster.

The new findings offer promising leads to health officials who are concerned about preparing for a possible pandemic. Scientists should be able to prepare a checklist of the most worrisome genetic changes so they can monitor the evolution of the avian flu virus and rush medical help to any area where it looks as if the virus is becoming more transmissible. They may also be able to develop drugs and vaccines aimed at the most important genetic targets, thus allowing them to treat or even prevent influenza more effectively.

Nobody knows whether the avian strain now under the spotlight will become a big threat to humans. But some day a potential pandemic strain will arrive. The new findings could help develop tools to contain it.