There Are "About Even Odds" That the Virus Could

[BERIGAN]

Maybe it's time to stop laughing about it....

By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY

March 14, 2006 — Robert G. Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from posing a terrible hazard to birds to becoming a real threat to humans?

There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.

Webster and his team of scientists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the Flu Hunter.

Right now, H5N1, a type of avian influenza virus, has confined itself to birds. It can be transmitted from bird to human but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of infected birds.

But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world's scientists is that the bird flu virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can spread through the air from human to human.

"I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," said Webster, who has stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak.

Frightening Warning

"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."

Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.

Researcher Dr. Anne Moscona at New York Weill Cornell Medical Center said that a human form may not mutate this year or next — or ever — but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.

"If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe," Moscona said.

No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.

"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus," Moscona said.

But that hasn't stopped Moscona from searching for new types of anti-viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread of bird flu.

"I don't think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it's going to be possible to contain it," she said.

That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds or changes its genetic code and becomes just as deadly to humans.

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=1724801

Edited March 14, 2006 by BERIGAN

[Free For All]

What, do you want to live forever?

I hope that Woody Shaw At The Maintenance Shop DVD comes out soon.

[Soul Stream]

I can't tell if this thing is for real or more media hype about how we're all gonna die again. Again.

[Free For All]

I know I got suckered in after reading one of the Millenium Bug books and went out and stocked up on stuff. Then nothing happened and I felt like an idiot. Now I tend not to get overly concerned about these alarmist articles, but then again, who knows when it might be for real. Maybe I'm naive.

I just refuse to go through life worrying about every possible thing that might happen.

[couw]

there are also about even odds that an existing human flu virus mutates to become the next black death.

even with what? odds of course!

[catesta]

there are also about even odds that an existing human flu virus mutates to become the next black death.

even with what? odds of course!

Oh great, now I won't be able to sleep tonight.

Thanks!

[Jazzmoose]

Just remember, 47.8% of all statistics are fabricated anyway...

[Harold_Z]

Time for a drink.

[BERIGAN]

Tests Show Egyptian Woman Dies of Bird Flu

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- Initial tests have shown that a woman who died this week had bird flu, making her likely the first human death from the disease in Egypt, a spokesman for the World Health Organization said Saturday.

A U.S. Navy lab in Cairo found that the woman, who died on Friday, had the H5N1 virus, but further tests will be conducted by the WHO to give final confirmation, WHO spokesman Hassan el-Bushra told The Associated Press.

A number of people who came in contact with the woman are also being tested, said el-Bushra, who is the WHO regional adviser for emerging diseases. He would not say how many people were being tested or whether they had shown any symptoms of bird flu.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has killed or forced the slaughter of tens of millions of chickens and ducks across Asia since 2003, and recently spread to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Health officials fear H5N1 could evolve into a virus that can be transmitted easily between people and become a global pandemic.

That has not happened yet, but at least 97 people - excluding the Egyptian woman - have died from the disease worldwide, two-thirds of them in Indonesia and Vietnam, according to figures by the World Health Organization.

[BruceH]

This is one of those things like a large meteor strike... It WILL happen, but no one can say when.