J Larsen

I received my box.

Just got my shipping notice!

Yes. The basic connection is that right now there is an extreme fear of risky assets (what people call a "flight to quality"), hence a massive outflow of capital from Russia's stockmarket. Furthermore, if Russia's banking system is similar to that of others around the globe, its banks have "exposure" to Lehman/whoever or someone who does. It's like a giant ball of yarn, once you pull on one end you may end up unraveling the whole thing. Guy Ironicly, I can remember a time in the recent past (2000 - 01) when the "fligth to quality" was the explanation for the run up in AIG shares.

I think that is the plan.

A government bailout of AIG is very BAD news. Worse than AIG actually going under? Again, I don't profess to know the particulars. I'm reading the posts of those who do with great interest. There have been estimates that AIG may be effectively "in the red" by as much as $100 billion, so it could prove to be a very expensive tab for the taxpayers to pick up, even if you gave the bondholders (largely pension/retirement funds) $0.

Doubt it's just CDO investments. I've been hearing that AIG trading desks have some seriously underwater/mishedged CDS (credit default swap) positions. This may betray my ignorance, but prior to your post I would have considered a CDS to be a type of CDO. Isn't a CDS essentially a firm-specific CDO?

Yeah, thank goodness we had the rating agencies to tell us that we might not want to buy any Lehman securities today... The rating agency industry is almost certain to be the next in line for major reform. I'm not sure what form it will take, but I doubt that in 5 years firms will be paying the agencies millions of dollars to rate them. Given all the problems of late, the appearance (at minimum) of conflict of interest is not sustainable.

If they passed muster with supposedly-sophisticated institutional investors, chief risk officers at major financial institutions and all the "smart" people in national policymaking circles, I don't think you can be so harsh on state insurance regulators. Guy Point taken, unlike the other agents you mention, the role of state insurance commissioners is to ensure that the companies writing in their states have suitably conservative, traditional investments to ensure the solvency of the firm beyond any reasonable doubt. You're typically looking at a portfolio dominated by treasuries, with a smattering of investment grade corporate bonds.

Any large financial failure is bad, but a credit downgrade does not mean that AIG is in danger of failure. It means that it costs them more to borrow and attract customers. It's not the same thing. Reports today on TV indicated that AIG is not saddled with loads of debt, although I haven't really checked it on the internet or anything. There's a little more to it than that. Statutory capital requirements for insurance companies are a function of their ratings. Insurance companies can (and have) failed when these capital requirements have increased to an unsustainable level. I have been involved in 11th hour talks with ratings agencies on behalf of clients for this very reason. Given how cash-strapped AIG is right now (thanks to CDO investments, the extent of which I cannot believe passed muster with 50 state commissioners), this is a very real risk. Given the fact that the stock touched $3.50 today (95% below where it was less than a year ago), I think it fair to say that many others share this assessment.

AIG, WM and UBS all seem to be fighting to be first in line to go next... The last couple of months have renewed my appreciation for my job (consulting). A very large percentage of my friends are wall streeters, and many of them have lost their jobs recently.

Saw Signal do Music for 18 Musicians tonight. It was awesome - the best performance I've heard after the original ECM recording. Actually, I think it was every bit as good as the old ECM record.

100 - perfect score.

Before a mini black hole occurred. FWIW, I am not remotely concerned.

You're really never out of the woods. At a given energy level, there is essentially a "probability per unit time" of creating a given particle - I don't see why this would not apply to mini black holes as well. So if the probability is 10% per year of creating one, several years of experiments could be conducted before it occurred.

Thanks again for all the help. I look forward to meeting you both when I get there. Do you have any advice on where to stay in Kyoto? I'm only planning on being there one night. I was thinking maybe the eastern part of the city? Do you know of any Ryokan that would welcome a foreign couple? Thanks!

I guess I consider myself to be a rational audiophile, meaning that I am willing to spend more to get better sound, but I am not willing to spend 100 times more for a 10% improvement, and I have no patience for debating claims about equipment that defy the laws of physics or that ignore biological realities about the limits of human audio perception. I'm also not an "upgrader." I plan to get a lot more use out of my B&W/Rotel/NAD set up. That said, someday I might get a consumer turntable to use in place of my Technics 1200.

Whoa... thanks! Got to look for that one myself then...

I thought this was an 11 disc set. Are there two sets with the same name, or am I confusing things?

Time permitting, I'd be happy to translate for you. Awesome! Shall we check in as the date approaches?

Thanks, John. I will be in Tokyo from at least 9/29 to 10/2. We are also planning to go to Kyoto and possibly Nara before heading to Hanoi, but our plans aren't set for that part of the trip yet. Meeting up would be great if the dates work out for you.

Thanks a lot! For the maps, I have been studying these two fairly meticulously, and have drawn up some fairly detailed plans based on them: http://www.amazon.com/Tokyo-City-Atlas-Bil...d/dp/4770028091 http://www.amazon.com/Knopf-MapGuide-Tokyo...9633&sr=1-1 I've also been doing the Pimsleur Conversational Japanese course, but I can't honestly say I've made a lot of progress. Still, we're hoping to be able to try a few different types of restaurants. My girlfriend has a cousin in Tokyo that we may be able to persuade to act as translator for us in exchange for a couple free dinners!

Thanks to all; Shibuya it is. Any recommendations for places to eat? My girlfriend and I are pretty excited about sampling the cuisine. Somewhat more obscurely, I am interested in a lot of Japanese photography. If anyone knows of good galleries or even of good bookstores for monographs, I'd be very interested to know. I know of one called A Black Ship. I'm also interested in experimental music clubs in Tokyo - free jazz, noise, minimalism, anything along those lines. I think there is one called Super Deluxe in Shibuya, but I have a hunch there are quite a few more. Finally, I'd love to know about anything that would be of interest to an architecture/industrial design nut that would be unlikely to be mentioned in a guidebook. For instance, I'm looking forward to visiting hhstyle.com/casa. Thanks! A lot of these things are not mentioned in guidebooks and are difficult for a non-Japanese speaker to learn about online.

Thanks - I was just thinking Roppongi because it seems very central (at least on the map, which I know can be misleading) and because it seems like there are a lot of interesting art spaces there. I will look into Shinjuku. Just for a sense of scale, how long of a walk is it from Shibuya to Roppongi? I'm guessing 20-25 minutes?

I'm booking a hotel for my first trip to Tokyo. I have it down to a hotel at Shibuya Station vs. one at Roppongi Station. I'm looking for something as central as possible and with lots to do at night. Can anyone recommend one area over the other? Thanks.

The Economist first and foremost. I think it may be the most "important" periodical out there. Also The NYer and The Wire. Of less general interest but equal personal interest are Science and Nature. I'm looking for some good new art magazines. There used to be a few that I liked (e.g. FlashArt), but they all seem to have a tendency to get overly commercial and overrun with uninteresting advertising as time goes on.