2007 Hot Stove League Thread

[HolyStitt]

Will Carroll has reported that its "all but done" and apparently the Twins designated someone from their 40 man roster for assignment - usually a sign that something will happen soon.

Last I heard the moves they made had the number down to 38 on the roster.

[Dan Gould]

Well, as time continues to go by with no deal announced, its harder and harder to believe that the Twins really are satisfied with any of the packages the Red Sox have offered. Now both Gammons and the Boston Herald consider it more likely that the Twins will hold onto Santana ... but does anyone else have the nagging suspicion that the Yankees are going to swoop in, make a slightly better offer - but not give up their third best pitching prospect - and get him in the end? That's been their M.O. before, and the Star-Tribune reported that the Twins never heard from the Yankees that they were out of it, either.

Hankie Steinbrenner keeps saying that they don't pay any attention to what other teams do, least of all the Sox, but his baseball people have to understand that without a big move, they've fallen behind both the Sox and the Tigers for next year's pennant race. They need Santana more than ever, because none of those youngsters are going to dominate right off the bat - and now I think they are going to get him.

[Big Al]

I read in the paper the other day that the Rangers are talking about bringing Gagne back from Boston and making him the closer.

Jeeezus, didn't these idiots watch ANY baseball last year, including their own team?

If I was Aki, I'd be looking for another team pronto!

[PHILLYQ]

Well, as time continues to go by with no deal announced, its harder and harder to believe that the Twins really are satisfied with any of the packages the Red Sox have offered. Now both Gammons and the Boston Herald consider it more likely that the Twins will hold onto Santana ... but does anyone else have the nagging suspicion that the Yankees are going to swoop in, make a slightly better offer - but not give up their third best pitching prospect - and get him in the end? That's been their M.O. before, and the Star-Tribune reported that the Twins never heard from the Yankees that they were out of it, either.

Hankie Steinbrenner keeps saying that they don't pay any attention to what other teams do, least of all the Sox, but his baseball people have to understand that without a big move, they've fallen behind both the Sox and the Tigers for next year's pennant race. They need Santana more than ever, because none of those youngsters are going to dominate right off the bat - and now I think they are going to get him.

If, and I emphasize if, the Yanks are out of the Santana sweepstakes, what's to stop the Bosox from walking away from it all? If you take the view that the Bosox were in it primarily to drive the price up for the Yanks, if the Yanks are out then the Bosox can just tell the Twins to either go away or "Here's our package(reduced from previously)- if you want it, OK, if not, see ya." Thsi has largely been a two team market for this deal. If no one else makes a good offer for Santana, then maybe the Twins have overplayed their hand and they may get only the draft pick when Santana flies the coop after the season. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[porcy62]

I am here for a mistake, lost the road at the last traffic light, the guy told me that I have to turn right, or left...mmmhh, I don't remember. Well, since I am here I wish to ask: who are the fighting bulls Jim are referring to in the thread about Forum Closing Down? I wish to tell them that Di Maggio was the all times best, no matter what do you think.

[Chuck Nessa]

I am here for a mistake, lost the road at the last traffic light, the guy told me that I have to turn right, or left...mmmhh, I don't remember. Well, since I am here I wish to ask: who are the fighting bulls Jim are referring to in the thread about Forum Closing Down? I wish to tell them that Di Maggio was the all times best, no matter what do you think.

Just tell the folks here to watch out for Detroit next year.

Not a Detroit fan myself but.............

[Dan Gould]

Well, as time continues to go by with no deal announced, its harder and harder to believe that the Twins really are satisfied with any of the packages the Red Sox have offered. Now both Gammons and the Boston Herald consider it more likely that the Twins will hold onto Santana ... but does anyone else have the nagging suspicion that the Yankees are going to swoop in, make a slightly better offer - but not give up their third best pitching prospect - and get him in the end? That's been their M.O. before, and the Star-Tribune reported that the Twins never heard from the Yankees that they were out of it, either.

Hankie Steinbrenner keeps saying that they don't pay any attention to what other teams do, least of all the Sox, but his baseball people have to understand that without a big move, they've fallen behind both the Sox and the Tigers for next year's pennant race. They need Santana more than ever, because none of those youngsters are going to dominate right off the bat - and now I think they are going to get him.

If, and I emphasize if, the Yanks are out of the Santana sweepstakes, what's to stop the Bosox from walking away from it all? If you take the view that the Bosox were in it primarily to drive the price up for the Yanks, if the Yanks are out then the Bosox can just tell the Twins to either go away or "Here's our package(reduced from previously)- if you want it, OK, if not, see ya." Thsi has largely been a two team market for this deal. If no one else makes a good offer for Santana, then maybe the Twins have overplayed their hand and they may get only the draft pick when Santana flies the coop after the season. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

What's to stop the Sox from walking away?

Uh, probably the likelihood that the Yanks will sweep back in?

Why would the Sox offer a reduced package?

See the above answer.

[Patrick]

Well, as time continues to go by with no deal announced, its harder and harder to believe that the Twins really are satisfied with any of the packages the Red Sox have offered. Now both Gammons and the Boston Herald consider it more likely that the Twins will hold onto Santana ... but does anyone else have the nagging suspicion that the Yankees are going to swoop in, make a slightly better offer - but not give up their third best pitching prospect - and get him in the end? That's been their M.O. before, and the Star-Tribune reported that the Twins never heard from the Yankees that they were out of it, either.

Hankie Steinbrenner keeps saying that they don't pay any attention to what other teams do, least of all the Sox, but his baseball people have to understand that without a big move, they've fallen behind both the Sox and the Tigers for next year's pennant race. They need Santana more than ever, because none of those youngsters are going to dominate right off the bat - and now I think they are going to get him.

Sitting around the hot stove here, it can get a bit drafty--warm and cozy one minute, a bit chilly the next. My sense right now is that Santana is still going to end up at Fenway (eventually).

[BERIGAN]

Andruw Jones signs with the Dodgers for 2 whole years, 36 mil. According to honest as the day is long agent Borass.....

... there were really only two options when it came to length.

"Very, very long-term or very, very short term," he said. "Nothing in between."

Riiiight......

I'm Happy, Satan lost for once....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3143653

[Dan Gould]

Andruw Jones signs with the Dodgers for 2 whole years, 36 mil. According to honest as the day is long agent Borass.....

... there were really only two options when it came to length.

"Very, very long-term or very, very short term," he said. "Nothing in between."

Riiiight......

I'm Happy, Satan lost for once....

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3143653

Yeah, and no player chooses "very very short-term" over "very very long-term" cuz no one wants long-term security, right?

What a joke Boras has become. Or maybe the "very very long-term" offers were for like a million a year. You know, 100 year, 100 million. take it or leave it.

[Chalupa]

The Dodgers signed AJ for $18M PER???? What the F is their GM smoking?? Did he watch him play the past two years?? Did he check his stats?? Jones is now the 5th highest paid (per year) player.

[Noj]

A typical Dodger signing, I actually predicted it on another board. Andruw better hit bombs and for average at that price.

[Dan Gould]

According to the Globe, Theo has left the building (I mean, Nashville) without a deal for Santana.

In the end, I think its very obvious that the Twins have an expectation of what Santana should be worth in trade and that neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox ever offered what was required to move a 29 year old, two-time Cy Young winner. Plus it remains early in the process - one of those two teams or another big market team could decide to sweeten the pot in the future. The Twins still have time to make the decision they think is best, including keeping him for the 2008 season or hoping he'll approve a waiver-deadline trade if the Twins aren't competitive.

Its real interesting though that both the Sox and the Yankees have stuck to their guns in refusing to give in on their prospects. Certainly a year or three ago, both teams would have probably made much bigger offers in order to land Santana. And I'm sure that if the Sox had another down season instead of winning the Series, they'd have made the offer the Twins wanted, and gone all out to sign Santana, regardless of the cost.

[Dan Gould]

Couple of things to note:

Its a super-short contract at only two years. Andruw ought to be very motivated to perform and then cash in for real in two years.

Plus, at two years, if things aren't working out (LA is a bit tough on righty power hitters, more so than Atlanta is), he should be easier to move to a contender who needs a bat but wouldn't want to commit to a long-term/big bucks obligation.

I actually think this is a pretty intelligently crafted deal, though certainly a tad more dollars than I'd have offered.

[Quincy]

Couple of things to note:

Its a super-short contract at only two years. Andruw ought to be very motivated to perform and then cash in for real in two years.

He'll look great in that uniform. Not sure his numbers will, but he will. Nah, actually as much as Jones can be frustrating, I'd think he'd rebound some. Last year may have just been one of those years where little goes right.

I actually think this is a pretty intelligently crafted deal, though certainly a tad more dollars than I'd have offered.

The price of gas is making everything go up.

Btw, good dog Dan.

[HolyStitt]

Btw, good dog Dan.

Actually I miss the pre-Jarrett picture.

[Chalupa]

Couple of things to note:

Its a super-short contract at only two years. Andruw ought to be very motivated to perform and then cash in for real in two years.

I hear what you're saying, however, if this is the case then why wasn't he super motivated the past two years?? People were saying that he was going to have a great year last year after 2006 because he would be looking to cash in.

Plus, at two years, if things aren't working out (LA is a bit tough on righty power hitters, more so than Atlanta is), he should be easier to move to a contender who needs a bat but wouldn't want to commit to a long-term/big bucks obligation.

I actually think this is a pretty intelligently crafted deal, though certainly a tad more dollars than I'd have offered.

He won't be that easy to move because of his 'no trade' clause. And who, besides the Dodgers, are going to take on an $18M contract for .226 hitter? The only 'good' thing about this deal is that it's only two years.

[Dan Gould]

I'm not the only one who doesn't think this is a bad deal. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus thinks its the "best deal of the winter":

Best deal of the winter

Dodgers improve themselves greatly with Jones

By Joe Sheehan, BaseballProspectus.com

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- As another slow day at the winter meetings came to a close -- one signing, one trade -- the Los Angeles Dodgers made their best move in a very long time. Showing an appreciation of sunk costs and the value of short-term deals, the Dodgers signed center fielder Andruw Jones to a two-year, $36.2 million contract. The deal looks outlandish for its annual salary of $18 million, but the overall commitment makes it one of the great bargains in recent memory.

The signing was a surprise on many levels. For one, the Dodgers have made some terrible decisions over the past two years since Ned Colletti was named general manager. Colletti threw away more than $100 million last winter on free agents who combined to block better players and push the Dodgers away from contention. He's also shown a willingness to deal away the team's young talent for little return, and if trades of Joel Guzman, Edwin Jackson, and Dioner Navarro haven't quite burned them, the returns for those players have done nothing to help the Dodgers win, either.

Consider also that the Dodgers have an expensive albatross in Juan Pierre, the good-guy, bad-player combination to whom they owe $36 million over the next four seasons. Pierre was already an inadequate center fielder, and he'll be even worse, relative to par, in left field, where he may block a better player in Andre Ethier. That's a problem for another day; Jones is a three- to five-win upgrade on Pierre in each of the next two seasons. Consider that Jones' WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) in 2007, the worst year of his career, was 4.6. Pierre's WARP in 2006 and 2007 combined was 4.3. Jones' career-low EqA of .251 was within shouting distance of Pierre's career EqA of .256. He's simply a much, much better player than Pierre is, and we haven't compared their arms yet.

Jones had some difficulty getting traction in a market loaded with center fielders. He's coming off the worst season of his life, a .222/.311/.413 nightmare, and taking criticism for defense that is actually still above average, just not at the level he played when he was younger. When you look a bit more closely at Jones' season, though, you find that many of his indicators were stable. His walk and strikeout rates were slightly worse, but within the bounds of fluctuation. In total, 2007 was a typical Andruw Jones season less 15 homers, five singles, and some intentional walks. His fly-ball rate was unchanged, it's just that the balls didn't go as far. Given Jones' age and the stability of so many elements to his performance, I'm certain that he's going to bounce back to his established level, which in a neutral park would look like .265/.330/.500, with plus defense in center. He's the player people suddenly think Torii Hunter is. [Ed. note: Nate Silver adds that a PECOTA for Jones as a Dodger yields up .258/.345/.488 with 29 home runs and a 28.5 VORP. Tasty.]

I'm stunned by the length of the deal. Scott Boras was quoted as saying he didn't want Jones to have to play on a one-year deal, given that he'd just come off that type of season. A two-year deal, however, seems like the worst of both worlds: you're not getting the maximum aggregate amount of money, nor are you hitting the market as quickly as possible, as young as possible, after bouncing back. There's enough difference between ages 32 and 33 that I would think Boras would have wanted to have Jones be a free agent again next year. To his credit, Boras appears to have taken more into account than just dollars. Let's see who notices.

One year or two, this is a fantastic deal for the Dodgers, who get back-end-of-peak years from a Hall of Fame player without committing to his decline phase. Jones will bounce back in 2008, and he'll be a seven-win player over the two years of the deal. That's an enormous addition for a team that has been shooting itself in the foot for two long. What it means for Ethier or Matt Kemp is something that can be hashed out, but again, the player in the way isn't Jones, it's Pierre, who was a bad signing at the time, and remains so today. The Dodgers have an opportunity to show just how well they understand sunk costs by relegating Pierre to a fourth outfielder's role, to which he'd be reasonably suited. It would also give us a chance to test the whole "character" framework, to see if the fourth-best outfielder on the roster is able to accept that he, in fact, is that, and sublimate his desire to play more for the good of the team. That's leadership, right?

I love this contract. It will be far and away the smartest thing any team does this winter, and it pushes the Dodgers up a little bit closer to the Diamondbacks in the 2008 NL West race.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/base...ones/index.html

[Chalupa]

"Wins Above Replacement Player"??? What kind of nonsense is that?? All that shows is that his replacement(s) REALLY sucked. (Memo to Joe Sheehan. If your using a stat like WARP to bolster your argument you're in trouble.) Look, I hope for Noj and all of the other Dodger fans out there that I'm wrong and he comes back and puts up ARod numbers in return for the ARod dollars he'll be getting. But from what I've seen of him the past two years against the Phils he ain't worth the risk. Especially at that money.

Interested to hear what Conrad has to say about this deal.

Edited December 6, 2007 by J.H. Deeley

[Dan Gould]

"Wins Above Replacement Player"??? What kind of nonsense is that?? All that shows is that his replacement(s) REALLY sucked. (Memo to Joe Sheehan. If your using a stat like WARP to bolster your argument you're in trouble.)

Baseball Prospectus is dedicated to advanced statistical analysis, so to expect someone who writes for the site not to use WARP is foolish. Having said that, you need to understand some things about the statistic in question.

Number one, "Replacement Player" is defined as how a scrub would perform. Its a AAAA player asked to perform full-time, a fourth outfielder journeyman who never amounted to squat. I am not sure what I think that "Replacement Player" is formally defined as about the 20th percentile performance of all players at a particular position.

Now, having said that, all that you need to know about WARP is that in order to get "wins" you first have to calculate how many runs a particular player produces above that mythical replacement player, and then relate runs to wins. That is, let's say, for every five runs produced, a "win" is produced. Its somewhat similar to Bill James' "win shares".

An alternative statistic is "VORP" which is Value over Replacement Player". It eliminates the rather tenuous and arbitrary extra step of calculating "wins".

Understand too that, iirc, VORP and WARP are league and ball-park independent, so no player gets an advantage from playing in a band box like in Philly or disadvantaged by a huge park like Petco.

So having said all that, this is the bottom line: Jones has been one of the very best centerfielders in the game, he is only 30 years old and it is more likely that last year was simply a bad year rather than the start of his decline phase. It makes perfect sense, given all of the facts, to expect that the Dodgers have locked up the final prime years of a future hall of famer, while having no financial obligation into his over-paid, under-performing decline phase.

That is indeed a "great" signing.

And whatever you say about such statistical analysis - nonsense, fool's gold, or sheer brilliance - Baseball Prospectus "PECOTA" projection last year for the White Sox roster as a whole was 72-92 - exactly what their W-L record was. In other words, these new-fangled way of looking at things can't be dismissed out of hand.

[Patrick]

"Wins Above Replacement Player"??? What kind of nonsense is that?? All that shows is that his replacement(s) REALLY sucked. (Memo to Joe Sheehan. If your using a stat like WARP to bolster your argument you're in trouble.)

And whatever you say about such statistical analysis - nonsense, fool's gold, or sheer brilliance - Baseball Prospectus "PECOTA" projection last year for the White Sox roster as a whole was 72-92 - exactly what their W-L record was. In other words, these new-fangled way of looking at things can't be dismissed out of hand.

You may be right about the usefulness of various new fangled stats, but let's be clear about one thing. Demonstrating that one PECOTA projection was exactly correct should not be taken as compelling evidence of anything. This just shows that the prediction was exactly correct once. Someone guessing records, or throwing darts at a dartboard, or spinning the wheel of fortune, or letting their dog choose which tree to approach will get lucky and be correct from time to time.

I'm not arguing that these stats are BS. I don't know if they are or not--occaisionally I have the inclination, but never the time, to read some of this stuff.

You obviously spend more time with it. What website material (that doesn't require $ or a secret handshake) would you recommend for reading about some of this stuff?

[Tjazz]

The Dodgers signed AJ for $18M PER???? What the F is their GM smoking?? Did he watch him play the past two years?? Did he check his stats?? Jones is now the 5th highest paid (per year) player.

I'm glad it's not my money. If the Dodger's want to spend on Torre and Jones, maybe they'll get the fans to fill the seats again. It's like Phil Jackson getting 12 M for the Lakers, he's not expected to win, but the seats will be filled.

I'm surprised Andrew Jones is getting more than $15M.

Seems like Kemp could hit 25 HRs (course, he makes alot of mental errors)

[Dan Gould]

"Wins Above Replacement Player"??? What kind of nonsense is that?? All that shows is that his replacement(s) REALLY sucked. (Memo to Joe Sheehan. If your using a stat like WARP to bolster your argument you're in trouble.)

And whatever you say about such statistical analysis - nonsense, fool's gold, or sheer brilliance - Baseball Prospectus "PECOTA" projection last year for the White Sox roster as a whole was 72-92 - exactly what their W-L record was. In other words, these new-fangled way of looking at things can't be dismissed out of hand.

You may be right about the usefulness of various new fangled stats, but let's be clear about one thing. Demonstrating that one PECOTA projection was exactly correct should not be taken as compelling evidence of anything. This just shows that the prediction was exactly correct once. Someone guessing records, or throwing darts at a dartboard, or spinning the wheel of fortune, or letting their dog choose which tree to approach will get lucky and be correct from time to time.

I'm not arguing that these stats are BS. I don't know if they are or not--occaisionally I have the inclination, but never the time, to read some of this stuff.

You obviously spend more time with it. What website material (that doesn't require $ or a secret handshake) would you recommend for reading about some of this stuff?

Patrick,

I know you're right of course, I just decided to throw that one up there, as I was kind of impressed that cumulative individual stats resulted in a correct prediction over a 162 game season.

The funny thing is that while I've tried to learn some things about these stats, I am by no means dedicated to them, or interested enough to have gone looking for websites - free or not - that cover them in huge detail. I've generally just tried to soak up the information I come across, because as time goes by, its these kinds of statistical evaluations that are going to carry the day when GMs make decisions. Not exclusively, of course - but they are getting there. As an example, here is a post from the Fire Joe Morgan website. Those folks use all of the new-fangled stats, some of which are too involved for me. But check this out:

... this Q&A with new Pirates GM Neal Huntington. This made my brain explode.

The Pirates upper management has widely ignored OBP (on base percentage) in the past. How important will OBP be in player evaluation under your leadership?

-- Eric S., Pennsboro, W.Va

We are going to utilize several objective measures of player performance to evaluate and develop players. We'll rely on the more traditional objective evaluations: OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) , WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), Runs Created, ERC (Component ERA), GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio), K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings), K/BB (strikeouts to walks ratio), BB%, etc., but we'll also look to rely on some of the more recent variations: VORP (value over replacement player), Relative Performance, EqAve (equivalent average), EqOBP (equivalent on base percentage), EqSLG (equivalent slugging percentage), BIP% (balls put into play percentage), wOBA (weighted on base average), Range Factor, PMR (probabilistic model of range) and Zone Rating.

As a statistically-minded baseball fan, allow me to say: holy fucking shit.

[BERIGAN]

"Wins Above Replacement Player"??? What kind of nonsense is that?? All that shows is that his replacement(s) REALLY sucked. (Memo to Joe Sheehan. If your using a stat like WARP to bolster your argument you're in trouble.) Look, I hope for Noj and all of the other Dodger fans out there that I'm wrong and he comes back and puts up ARod numbers in return for the ARod dollars he'll be getting. But from what I've seen of him the past two years against the Phils he ain't worth the risk. Especially at that money.

Interested to hear what Conrad has to say about this deal.

Well, I am glad he is now signed with the Dodgers, now there is NO way Booby Cox can beg to have him back!

Dan, I think Joe Sheehan is wrong, at least saying this is the best deal of the winter. Sure, he could do better this year, and since they needed another big bat, it's worth the risk for just 2 years. But like JH said, comparing Andruw to Pierre, well...of course he is a step up!

Thing is he was on a team with a very streaky offense, but still one that drove in a ton of runs even with him hitting .231 with RISP, and .169 with RISP and 2 outs! Still drove in 94 RBI's(in 154 games) sucking the whole year. Dodgers don't have the same offense the braves do. Texiera drove in 56 RBI's in the 4 spot in only 54 games.

But, good players do start to suck for no good reason. Dale Murphy looked like a sure fire HOF'er around Andruw's age as well. WORF, BORK, whatever, can't predict that stuff! (Yes, I am an old fogy with some of the young whipper-snappers new fangled ways of of rating players, so sue me! )

Andruw is supposedly really going to be in shape next year, and working with Don Mattingly should help(Though by most accounts, he didn't pay much attention to Terry Pendleton last year)

I'd take Torii Hunter in a second over Andruw, right now. Just seeing the Braves play the Twins last year, showed me he is a much more intelligent player than Andruw....going the other way, realizing 9 times out of 10 a 0-2 pitch will not be a strike, so don't swing...

Thought it would be interesting to see how Torii has done with RISP, vs Andruw, since Sheehan ain't that high on Torii it appears.

Torii Hunter for his career, .276 with RISP, .278 RISP and 2 outs. Last year, .341 RISP, .333 RISP, 2 outs.

Andruw Jones for his career, .254 with RISP, and only .219 with RISP and 2 out!!! Not last year, for his career. (To beat that dead horse, last year, .231 RISP, .169 RISP with 2 outs)

I wrote this under duress, or at least I was distracted while writing this, if it seems more scattered than my usual tightly put together posts....

[Dan Gould]

Hey Al, the Rangers are out of the Gagne sweepstakes ... and he might actually accept the Red Sox arbitration offer!

I'd never have guessed that he'd not pick somewhere to be closer but maybe he's interested in winning another ring (who would have ever imagined that you'd hear that from me? ). Assuming that there was no physical issue in the last two months of the season, I actually believe that Gagne would be a strong addition to the set-up crew and sometime substitute for Paps. He basically had very similar numbers in terms of strikeout rate and walk rate when he was with Boston - it was his batting average on balls in play that skyrocketed. That's a stat that tends to fluctuate; when it gets well over .300 you can pretty much bet that its going to come back down, unless the guy is completely cooked, and he didn't look cooked with the Rangers.

My guess is that Boras is using this threat to try to get something done with another team but time is running out and we should know something soon. Accepting arbitration means that he can't get a salary more than 20% less than the 6 million he made last year, and he doesn't have a no-trade clause either. So in fact the Sox could trade him - and probably get a mid-level prospect or two - or release him in spring training and be responsible for 1/6th of his salary. The way I look at is that since his poor finish left him a type "B" free agent, what is more valuable? A second round draft pick or a year of Gagne? I'd be inclined to say that a year of Gagne is less of a crapshoot than a second round draft pick.