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Everything posted by Patrick
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Dan, Agree with everything in your post. My comment about data sets is getting at the question of how easy would it be for someone to create (and then test against historic data) some new stat, perhaps where one takes a weighted average of other stats. I imagine the SABR-heads have game info collected in a massive dataset somewhere that they can filter/sort and then calculate accordingly. Just curious how accessible (including cost) that is. My view is that a new-fangled stat (that is hard to calculate given widely available data) needs to demonstrate that it is significantly better to be worth the effort (for us non-professionals--obviously the pros have the incentive/ability to crunch all sorts of numbers trying to make better personnel decisions). Totally agree that wins is a pretty lousy way to measure starting pitchers, yet listening to ESPN blowhards (like that former Dodger/Indian/Giant/pitching coach/when does he run for office or start an accounting firm? Orel Hershiser) talk about how the Cy Young has to go to someone with 20 wins if someone won that many. The reasoning being something like "Cy Young won 500+ games, the award is about the wins...". Whatever.
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Happy Birthday, David. ...maybe a moderator job as a gift??...
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Quincy, Thanks for the leads. I guess what would be of most interest to me are articles that explain a stat, and then demonstrate why it is significantly better than something old-fashioned (like, for example, on base percentage). I too don't have much time for this. Too bad the internet didn't arrive when I was still in elementary school. If one wanted to do some baseball research, are datasets available that include the play by play of every game? Perhaps requires some $$ and a secret SABR handshake. I have mild amounts of interest, but absolutely no time...
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And whatever you say about such statistical analysis - nonsense, fool's gold, or sheer brilliance - Baseball Prospectus "PECOTA" projection last year for the White Sox roster as a whole was 72-92 - exactly what their W-L record was. In other words, these new-fangled way of looking at things can't be dismissed out of hand. You may be right about the usefulness of various new fangled stats, but let's be clear about one thing. Demonstrating that one PECOTA projection was exactly correct should not be taken as compelling evidence of anything. This just shows that the prediction was exactly correct once. Someone guessing records, or throwing darts at a dartboard, or spinning the wheel of fortune, or letting their dog choose which tree to approach will get lucky and be correct from time to time. I'm not arguing that these stats are BS. I don't know if they are or not--occaisionally I have the inclination, but never the time, to read some of this stuff. You obviously spend more time with it. What website material (that doesn't require $ or a secret handshake) would you recommend for reading about some of this stuff?
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Jim, Is there any way--without spending a ton of your own valuable time or hiring an accountant--to determine how much of your own $$ you've sunk into this operation in 2007? Perhaps some portion of the current surplus, or some of the still incoming end of the year donations (...maybe that are specified to apply to 2007), could be used to pay you back for (at least some of) your past dollar investments. When 2009 approaches, we can have another shout out for shekels. I echo Lazaro's point that running a BBS should not be taking $ away from pursuing your art. That's tough enough already.
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...or in life
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JohnJ has full custody of that avatar--no joint ownership involved. And I'm not offended...
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GoodSpeak, I believe Dan when he says he has you on his Ignore list. Thus only the rest of us get to read your posts complaining about his avatar. These posts are a bit of a drag to many of the rest of us, and due to Dan's use of Ignore, are unlikely to work the way you want them to. What is more likely to happen is that some of the rest of us will stop reading such threads (...see the various baseball threads). Please consider putting him on your ignore list--you'll become blissfully ignorant of his avatar, grammar, use of emoticons, etc. And with such a truce (or detente), we can all return to discussing music, pets, recipes, sports, sex in space, etc. in a civil way. And smile about it. ...Just a gentle request/suggestion.
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Sitting around the hot stove here, it can get a bit drafty--warm and cozy one minute, a bit chilly the next. My sense right now is that Santana is still going to end up at Fenway (eventually).
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Obviously, there is an inverse relationship between frequency of pledge drives and the amount that would need to be raised/donated on a given drive: more frequent fundraisers, less required per drive. While participants may face different financial challenges at different times of the year, my preference would be for a single, annual fundraiser. My sense is that the "annual subscription" amount shouldn't be too burdensome for most folks to deliver all at once, especially if they could plan ahead a bit (take those last few CDs out of your shopping cart--come back to them later). Maybe make the collection of funds at the beginning of the year--New Year's resolution, starting the year off right, investing a little capital into a project that produces high returns (in terms of enjoyment etc). Maybe that timing would not be good for people that get a bit overextended purchasing holiday gifts, but your contribution here would be another gift, a gift to yourself and this community of jazzheads. Since it would be voluntary, those folks that needed to spread payments over a period of time could do so. But with a once-a-year setup, we wouldn't all receive frequent prompting for additional cash. [Maybe there is a way to use PMs for folks that need to "finance" their donation over a period of time.] As noted, more frequent requests would be easy to tune out. A major defect of PBS, in my opinion, is the (what seems) constant begging for bucks, and the turn to self-help nonsense that they don't show any other time of year. While it is necessary to pay the bills, asking for donations distracts from why we really congregate here [...insert your own punchline about astronaut sex, or ...]. In addition to having one fundraising period, I think it would be good to have a well written paragraph or two explaining to a newcomer what the deal here is (how this place is run/funded, what makes it special), and placed, if possible, where it would be seen by guests or newly registered participants, and not get too much in the way (maybe pinned somewhere?). It would encourage donating in the intervening period. Plenty of good writers (...maybe fewer good typists) around here, so it should be possible to craft something that is reasonably effective without sounding too much like begging, guilt tripping, self-congratulatory etc. Twelve months may be a long time, so in addition, perhaps an occaisional nudge (if the current balances are not high enough) from someone on Jim's Board of Directors, aimed in part at folks that became active after the most recent organized collection of funds. Maybe a broadcast PM to all of us directing folks to a new thread in the forums discussion area which would be passing the hat. Naive paypal question: If I donate without using a credit card (I use funds from a balance held at PayPal), doesn't the recipient (maybe if it's not itself a business) get the full amount? That's how I read the Paypal fees. So if you don't have a bank account linked to Paypal, sell a few CDs on eBay, insist on Paypal payments without CC, and donate the proceeds here!
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Let me join the large chorus thanking Jim for all of the time, effort, and resources he spent creating and maintaining this jazz board. As the good ship BNBB was taking on water, I wondered how successful anyone would be at transforming that situation (great collection of knowledgeable and friendly participants, flawed corporate ownership/oversight) into a new venture. Jim really delivered!! Deep gratitude and respect for all of the non-music effort being expended by a guy with a young family trying to make it as a professional musician. [Repeat that last sentence again!] Perhaps the source of that energy was all of that clean living in Michigan . Like a few others that posted earlier in this thread, my time spent here largely was as a lurker [‘cept maybe when a thread’s focus turned to a couple of small market sports teams stationed along the north coast, or the next great CD fire sale]. Way too many items from this board to be thankful for, but just a few representative items that spring to mind as I type now (in no particular order): getting hipped to Frank Hewitt, Maria Schneider, Mingus’ East Coasting, Jazz in Paris, the Nessa AEC box; news of the bigtime Concord/OJC firesale, Night Lights, CD shop recommendations in various towns and online (esp StereoJack’s and Dusty Groove), getting hipped early to forthcoming BN reissues, reading eyewitness stories about jazz greats from yesterday and today. Besides all of Jim’s hard work, the key ingredient here is the community of individuals willing to share their knowledge, stories, passion for the music, etc. Thanks again Jim for fostering this in such a tremendous way. Like others, I am willing to pay an annual fee for the privilege, but I suspect that it is more than $$ here. [Repeat that sentence above one more time!] At the very least, let us know how we can keep up with the activities of that great jazz organ trio Organissimmo! Gotta catch you live again when you next past through DC, and maybe even introduce myself to some of the connoisseurs from my neck of the woods--folks with monikers like Bertrand, Stefan, mr jazz, weizen, … And what about the next big O recording project?
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Just happened to be listening to Randy Weston's With These Hands... when I clicked on this thread. RIP brother Cecil.
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I took too long to place an order--the Steve Lacy Monk tribute and the Koglmann/Konitz Duke tribute have stocked out. Maybe I got the last Shepp, I Know About the Life?
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Mentally?
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That's interesting. I just assumed the computer automatically sorted things out as far as what was eligible for the discount. I don't think the computer does it. Awhile ago I used a similar Borders coupon to purchase Zawinul's Brown Street (which is two discs in a slim case). Coupon claimed to be for single disc items, but the worker applied it to Zawinul (as well as some single RVGs). The original price on Brown Street wasn't that high, so that may have contributed to my ability to use the coupon. ...Just don't try to use it on the complete Ella songbooks box (or something similarly huge).
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My little sweetpea broke her elbow!
Patrick replied to Jim Alfredson's topic in Miscellaneous - Non-Political
Glad to read the injury appears to be healing well. Gotta ask whether this episode will have any effect on the next tune title in the "Clay Yo Hands", "Stomp Yo Feets" line... -
Berigan, thanks for posting that. I've never waded deep into the sabermetrics, but enjoy reading Neyer when the price is right.
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Please. It's a regular season award. Sabathia had a slightly better regular season. If your complaint is only about the margin of victory, then count that up to the scoring system. Don't know what Neyer said about it today because I refuse to pay to be an Insider. I thought Stark had a decent grumbling about it toward the end of the regular season, but can't seem to locate it now, though here's at least one version of it [dated September 30]: Maybe I'd also put less importance on the "versus aces" numbers, but it's still tough to beat Johan Santana (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 5 of those losses against Cleveland--3 to CC, 2 to Fausto) even if the Twins weren't great this year. Maybe Beckett has a similarly impressive list of aces he beat during the regular season, but I haven't heard about it. How often did Beckett pitch at least seven innings, give up 2 runs or less, and not get a win? Twice, earning losses against Toronto and Cleveland. How often did Sabathia pitch at least seven innings, give up 2 runs or less, and not get a win? Six times, resulting in two losses and 4 no decisions. Would you still complain if Sabathia had say two more wins? Say what you want about how tough it is to pitch in Fenway, Beckett benefitted from pitching for a team with a more prolific offense (home and away). And doesn't quantity of high quality starts/innings get some consideration here? And yes, I think it's obvious to everyone that just about everyone (including Beckett and Sabathia) would prefer a championship ring instead of an individual honor like the Cy Young. Congratulations to Beckett for his awesome post-season. He and his teammates rose to the occaision.
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worst and favorite sports announcers
Patrick replied to alocispepraluger102's topic in Miscellaneous - Non-Political
Perhaps only folks in Ohio will recognize the name, but one of the current all-time greats for basketball radio play-by-play is Joe Tait. Legitimately in the same category as Chick Hearn and Johnny Most (...just in a much smaller market with much less NBA success). Initially recommended to ownership by original Cleveland Cavaliers coach Bill Fitch. After the '80-'81 season, was fired by the all-time worst owner in any team sport, Ted Stepien (RIP). Returned to announce Cavaliers games two seasons later (after working for the Nets and then Bulls), and is still doing games today. Tait works by himself and tells you everything you need to know about the game, and little else. If you turn on a game midstream, you will know the score very quickly and how the teams are performing with no guesswork. It's unfortunate that the radio and television feeds are not in sync. After listening to both, you have great reason to believe that this incongruence is on purpose (...so that folks will actually listen to the tv guys). Great Joe Tait calls -
My Damn Ovaries
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On Borowski, I think it was a team option and Shapiro exercised it. They think he's recovered medically. I see the point regarding Manny if it's specifically about discipline in preparing to hit--he'd be a good example for that. Like Albert Belle was. If one can rely on the other vets for the other stuff, then maybe MC would improve in Boston.
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And in much smaller news, Tribe picks up one year options on three of their potentially available pitchers: Joe Borowski ($4M), Aaron Fultz ($1.5M), and Paul Byrd ($8M). Given the HGH mess, the last is a bit of a surprise given MLB hasn't informed Byrd/Tribe what, if anything, will happen to him. Byrd is a 4-5 guy in a good rotation, and that's probably a reasonable price (or a little rich) for him if he's not suspended for 50 games. Borowski is overrated/underachieving, but appears not to be a headcase like Wickman was (so hopefully, Betancourt, Perez or someone else can ease into closing and Borowski can become a 6th inning guy. Come on Wedgie, thinkabout it... ). Fultz is a decent lefty matchup guy, and inexpensive. Main goal for Tribe is to find a powerhitting leftfielder, most likely via trade. One possibility suggested by the Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto is Jason Bay in Pittsburgh. Some knee problems, but a reasonable contract. And another ex-Indians man in the front office there (Neal Huntington). And if someone else signs Kenny Lofton, Tribe will be entitled to a sandwich pick in the draft. Come on down! Your ticket to the postseason! Sign Kenny up for your team TODAY! Interesting about Miguel Cabrera. Have no idea what it would take or (more importantly for the present conversation) what I'd be willing to see the Tribe surrender. The Ortiz/Ramirez influence in Beantown might be helpful, or not... Does Manny really lead in that clubhouse, by example (?) or otherwise? He always struck me as this amazing hitter who was a bit deficient in other categories (including giving enough attention to anything not hitting-related), and even shy. I think Ortiz has been helpful to Manny outside the batter's box. Not sure if that would also work with MC. Maybe it would.
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So there's your confirmation that Coco has some appeal despite his recent hitting struggles. I would think the Yanks would jump at a Crede-for-Damon swap since the salaries are quite uneven and I don't think they'd do any better than Crede. ...And confirmation that his price is a leading attribute. Funny, no mention of glove...
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"Second Magic City: Sun Ra in Chicago"
Patrick replied to ghost of miles's topic in Jazz Radio & Podcasts
Cool. Thanks, David -
"Second Magic City: Sun Ra in Chicago"
Patrick replied to ghost of miles's topic in Jazz Radio & Podcasts
David, Nice show--fun/good for me to get educated a bit about Sun Ra. Do you intend to provide a playlist link (I found this useful for the Lighthouse All-Stars program)?