connoisseur series500 Posted May 16, 2006 Report Posted May 16, 2006 has been hot for the past couple years (along with other commodities.) Took a big hit today though. Wonder how far it will go on the upside. One analyst claimed that if you take the old high (around $850/per oz) around 25 years ago, and factor in inflation, then the price should be $2,000 assuming no change in fundamentals. Of course, as he also states, there's no economic law that states that gold must necessarily keep pace with inflation. I would add that since gold is priced in $US, and the dollar has eroded quite a bit over the last 25 years, then there might be some natural repricing to be expected as well. Who knows.... Quote
Dan Gould Posted May 16, 2006 Report Posted May 16, 2006 Gold went through the roof during the worst of the Carter-era inflation, as it is always a good bet when inflation is running rampant. Since then, as we know, the Fed has adapted an explicit strategy to maximize growth with the least amount of inflation possible. Now with oil prices rising, its not surprising that gold has been rising as well. Maybe if we help our new buddies Libya maximize their oil production, we can ease the upward pressure on prices, and gold is likely to follow a similar downward trend. Quote
Jazzmoose Posted May 17, 2006 Report Posted May 17, 2006 The metals markets are amazing me at the moment. I remember the Carter years and inflation and understood why it was going batshit then. Now, while I'm willing to believe that inflation today is a lot worse than the government numbers continue to tell us, there's no way it's as bad as it was back then. Weird. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to take this sack full of silver coins in before the Hunt brothers show up... Quote
LAL Posted May 19, 2006 Report Posted May 19, 2006 Have been a "believer" in gold and other commodities for the past 3 years - just couldn't do much from where I am. Expert: Gold Could Crash Peter Grandich, publisher of The Grandich Letter, tells The Daily Telegraph of London that gold could plummet up to $150-an-ounce after reaching its 26-year high of $727.75. But, according to the Telegraph article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the newsletter editor also says gold could skyrocket because of a "dying" U.S. dollar. "I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15%, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce," says Grandich. "In the long-term I'm still very bullish on gold because I think the U.S. dollar is dying and I don't see what can replace it. But the latest rise is quite simply unsustainable." Grandich sent out a special alert to his subscribers saying that gold was showing classic symptoms of late-stage "exhaustion." Technical indicators, he said, were flashing danger signs. The Telegraph points out that gold is 37% above its 200-day moving average. Grandich says that once the current froth in the gold market is gone, gold could go as high as $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce. "Once we see a complete breakdown of the dollar, then all those crazy predictions we hear of gold reaching $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce could become realistic," he said. Grandich recommends investing in smaller mining stocks, which he says will soon have their day of "speculative frenzy." Grandich comments that he thinks the trigger for a surge in gold would be if the U.S. dollar index were to fall below 80. Quote
connoisseur series500 Posted May 19, 2006 Author Report Posted May 19, 2006 Have been a "believer" in gold and other commodities for the past 3 years - just couldn't do much from where I am. Expert: Gold Could Crash Peter Grandich, publisher of The Grandich Letter, tells The Daily Telegraph of London that gold could plummet up to $150-an-ounce after reaching its 26-year high of $727.75. But, according to the Telegraph article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the newsletter editor also says gold could skyrocket because of a "dying" U.S. dollar. "I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15%, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce," says Grandich. "In the long-term I'm still very bullish on gold because I think the U.S. dollar is dying and I don't see what can replace it. But the latest rise is quite simply unsustainable." Grandich sent out a special alert to his subscribers saying that gold was showing classic symptoms of late-stage "exhaustion." Technical indicators, he said, were flashing danger signs. The Telegraph points out that gold is 37% above its 200-day moving average. Grandich says that once the current froth in the gold market is gone, gold could go as high as $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce. "Once we see a complete breakdown of the dollar, then all those crazy predictions we hear of gold reaching $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce could become realistic," he said. Grandich recommends investing in smaller mining stocks, which he says will soon have their day of "speculative frenzy." Grandich comments that he thinks the trigger for a surge in gold would be if the U.S. dollar index were to fall below 80. What a frustrating article to read! So which way is it going? $150/oz or $2,000-3,000/oz? Crazy. As I mentioned, I think it aint going below $500-600 range, as commodities have been repriced to reflect inflation adjustments. Fundamentals could bring it to the $2000-3,000 range perhaps? I don't know. Quote
LAL Posted May 19, 2006 Report Posted May 19, 2006 The article is saying there will be a potential upcoming price correction of up to $150/ounce but the longer/long-term trend is still up and may hit as high as $2000-$3000. Have been a "believer" in gold and other commodities for the past 3 years - just couldn't do much from where I am. Expert: Gold Could Crash Peter Grandich, publisher of The Grandich Letter, tells The Daily Telegraph of London that gold could plummet up to $150-an-ounce after reaching its 26-year high of $727.75. But, according to the Telegraph article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the newsletter editor also says gold could skyrocket because of a "dying" U.S. dollar. "I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15%, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce," says Grandich. "In the long-term I'm still very bullish on gold because I think the U.S. dollar is dying and I don't see what can replace it. But the latest rise is quite simply unsustainable." Grandich sent out a special alert to his subscribers saying that gold was showing classic symptoms of late-stage "exhaustion." Technical indicators, he said, were flashing danger signs. The Telegraph points out that gold is 37% above its 200-day moving average. Grandich says that once the current froth in the gold market is gone, gold could go as high as $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce. "Once we see a complete breakdown of the dollar, then all those crazy predictions we hear of gold reaching $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce could become realistic," he said. Grandich recommends investing in smaller mining stocks, which he says will soon have their day of "speculative frenzy." Grandich comments that he thinks the trigger for a surge in gold would be if the U.S. dollar index were to fall below 80. What a frustrating article to read! So which way is it going? $150/oz or $2,000-3,000/oz? Crazy. As I mentioned, I think it aint going below $500-600 range, as commodities have been repriced to reflect inflation adjustments. Fundamentals could bring it to the $2000-3,000 range perhaps? I don't know. Quote
connoisseur series500 Posted May 19, 2006 Author Report Posted May 19, 2006 The article is saying there will be a potential upcoming price correction of up to $150/ounce but the longer/long-term trend is still up and may hit as high as $2000-$3000. Have been a "believer" in gold and other commodities for the past 3 years - just couldn't do much from where I am. Expert: Gold Could Crash Peter Grandich, publisher of The Grandich Letter, tells The Daily Telegraph of London that gold could plummet up to $150-an-ounce after reaching its 26-year high of $727.75. But, according to the Telegraph article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the newsletter editor also says gold could skyrocket because of a "dying" U.S. dollar. "I think there will be a very short, sharp correction of 10 to 15%, in the worst case reaching a floor of around $575 an ounce," says Grandich. "In the long-term I'm still very bullish on gold because I think the U.S. dollar is dying and I don't see what can replace it. But the latest rise is quite simply unsustainable." Grandich sent out a special alert to his subscribers saying that gold was showing classic symptoms of late-stage "exhaustion." Technical indicators, he said, were flashing danger signs. The Telegraph points out that gold is 37% above its 200-day moving average. Grandich says that once the current froth in the gold market is gone, gold could go as high as $2,000 to $3,000 an ounce. "Once we see a complete breakdown of the dollar, then all those crazy predictions we hear of gold reaching $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce could become realistic," he said. Grandich recommends investing in smaller mining stocks, which he says will soon have their day of "speculative frenzy." Grandich comments that he thinks the trigger for a surge in gold would be if the U.S. dollar index were to fall below 80. What a frustrating article to read! So which way is it going? $150/oz or $2,000-3,000/oz? Crazy. As I mentioned, I think it aint going below $500-600 range, as commodities have been repriced to reflect inflation adjustments. Fundamentals could bring it to the $2000-3,000 range perhaps? I don't know. If that's what he's saying, it's a pile of crap! Gold may be overbought right now, but i'm sure it's staying above the 200 day moving average. It needs to do that in order to remain technically bullish. Commodities guys love using charts. Quote
Jazzmoose Posted May 19, 2006 Report Posted May 19, 2006 Technicians are the guys who can tell you fifty thousand reasons why the market should have responded in this way rather than the way it did... Quote
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