2006-2007 Hot Stove Thread

[chris olivarez]

God I hope the Dodgers don't get involved in that mess. If they do I'll have to conclude that Colletti finally flipped.

[Chalupa]

I'd take Manny and his contract over Nancy Drew anyday.

[Dan Gould]

I'd take Manny and his contract over Nancy Drew anyday.

Which is why I am hoping and praying that when push comes to shove, Manny will exercise his 10-5 veto rights and stay where he is. Theo would have to be a complete idiot to believe that Drew will provide any protection at all for Papi.

[Brad]

I know the guy is not the easiest to deal with but all he does is produce. Why the annual rite of trying to trade Manny?

I'm with you, Brad, but the fact is there are many reasons:

The contract was regarded as a financial albatross (less so now that only two guaranteed years remain; plus this year's contracts make it seem like Manny's 20 mil a year (3 mil deferred) look downright economical).

Manny has kept asking for a trade, over and over and over and over again. He's been asking out ever since he arrived. He hates the intrusive fans and media, which is why he's always wanted to go to LA.

Manny's lack of all-out effort over 162 games - the ever popular "Manny being Manny"

Hard to argue with those reasons. Hope they get decent value. Not sure LA will be any better as far as intrusiveness goes.

[Dan Gould]

Some interesting nuggets out of Boston:

Schilling had a Q&A session at some public event, and he not only said that Manny really does want out, he also suggested that its reached a point where if Manny doesn't get his wish, he may not really be 'all there' mentally next season. I can't imagine he'd tank it for an entire season but who really knows?

Meanwhile, the Globe is reporting that its "likely" that the Red Sox will offer Trot Nixon salary arbitration by today's deadline. If they really want Trot for another year (and given his earlier comments, he's probably likely to accept) that has to mean they are committed to dealing Manny. Otherwise, presuming Drew is signed shortly, Coco or Wily Mo have to be on the way out, if Nixon is on the way back.

And where does Manny go? Rumors continue to swirl about San Diego, which has been a regular trade partner lately. SP Jake Peavy may be available, and they have a lefty 1b who hit very well in his first year. That's a deal I could go for, as Peavy appears to have the stuff to make it in the AL (he's led his league in ERA and SOs at least once in the last three years). Schill, Peavy, Beckett, Paps and Wakefield would look awfully good. Schill, Matzusaka, Peavy, Beckett and Paps would be positively sick, especially with four of them 26 or younger heading into next season. One thing to worry about would be Peavy adjusting to a far less pitcher-friendly park than Petco, however.

[Chalupa]

Boston also announced it will not offer salary arbitration to catcher Doug Mirabelli, infielder Mark Loretta and outfielders Gabe Kapler and Trot Nixon.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2683099

[Dan Gould]

Boston also announced it will not offer salary arbitration to catcher Doug Mirabelli, infielder Mark Loretta and outfielders Gabe Kapler and Trot Nixon.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2683099

Yeah, I saw that. It seemed not to make sense even if they do want Trot back, because he was making 6+ million a year, and in arbitration, there is a 20% maximum you can cut someone's salary. Do they want to pay that much to a fourth outfielder?

Kapler and Mirabelli weren't surprising simply because offering arbitration to them, they aren't covered by the rules on draft pick compensation for free agents (they're play was too crappy). They did offer arbitration to Alex Gonzales, who has already signed with Cincy, just to get the draft pick of a category B player. Strange that they didn't offer it to Loretta, who should be an "A" player. But after they did the same with Graffanino last year, and he accepted when they didn't have room for him, they probably didn't want to deal with that again. Its obvious they are committed to the youngster as far as as 2B goes, and they signed Alex Cora as insurance.

Here's the weird thing: They did offer arbitration to Keith Foulke. Now, they declined the team option right after the season ended, which was for something like 7.5 million. They paid him the buyout and he then (somewhat surprisingly) declined the player option of 3.5 million, saying he wanted to be closer to his family in Texas or somewhere in the southwest. So why do they offer him arbitration? If Keith is all about the money, where is he going to get an offer of 7+ million for one year? Remember, you can't ask for a bigger paycut than 20%. I guess they are certain that he is committed to playing elsewhere and won't just grab for the money. Given the buy-out they've already paid, if he took arbitration, he'd be like a 9 million dollar crappy middle reliever!

[BERIGAN]

An interesting story on Buddy Bell and his battle with Cancer. Guy's stubborness nearly killed him, but still got to admire his toughness(to a point)

Cancer battle a journey for Bell

[Dan Gould]

Thanks for posting that, Conrad. Bell is one tough hombre - but he's lucky that ignoring his situation didn't kill him like it killed his father. One thing the article didn't mention - did Bell use chewing tobacco? Or was the cancer caused by something else?

Meanwhile, some very encouraging news in today's Globe. The Red Sox may not have a closer, a shortstop, or know what to do with Manny, but:

A source with direct knowledge of Jon Lester's medical condition said yesterday that Lester's latest CT scan was clean and his cancer seems to be in remission, so the 22-year-old lefthander expects to be in spring training with the Red Sox in 2007.

[HolyStitt]

La Velle E. Neal III said in the Star Tribune yesterday that "J.D. Drew is in the final stages of completing a $70 million, five year agreement with the Red Sox."

[Dan Gould]

He's been in the "final stages" for about a week now.

I keep hoping Theo is having buyer's remorse and is trying to get out of it, but I don't think that's it.

[Matthew]

Wish I could go to Vegas and find out what Drew's over/under for games played would be (100 games?). I'd definitely bet the under line.

[Dan Gould]

Wish I could go to Vegas and find out what Drew's over/under for games played would be (100 games?). I'd definitely bet the under line.

Agreed, though to his credit, he set a career high last season for games played, and the previous two years, he went on the DL after getting hit by a pitch and breaking a bone, I believe. So its actually been a while since he's had a non-fluke injury.

[BERIGAN]

Thanks for posting that, Conrad. Bell is one tough hombre - but he's lucky that ignoring his situation didn't kill him like it killed his father. One thing the article didn't mention - did Bell use chewing tobacco? Or was the cancer caused by something else?

Meanwhile, some very encouraging news in today's Globe. The Red Sox may not have a closer, a shortstop, or know what to do with Manny, but:

A source with direct knowledge of Jon Lester's medical condition said yesterday that Lester's latest CT scan was clean and his cancer seems to be in remission, so the 22-year-old lefthander expects to be in spring training with the Red Sox in 2007.

dan, I wondered that as well...was he a smoker? Chewer? Great news about Lester! I thought I had heard he would miss much of next year.

[BERIGAN]

Wish I could go to Vegas and find out what Drew's over/under for games played would be (100 games?). I'd definitely bet the under line.

Agreed, though to his credit, he set a career high last season for games played, and the previous two years, he went on the DL after getting hit by a pitch and breaking a bone, I believe. So its actually been a while since he's had a non-fluke injury.

Dan, you heard it from me first. Spead it as you desire. Fred Lynn Jr.

[Dan Gould]

More interesting tidbits from the Globe's GM meeting Blog:

The market is moving for Eric Gagne, with a contract possibly being signed this week.

The Globe seems to think that the Red Sox have an edge, by planning to name him the closer. If he's healthy, he can be as effective as anyone ever has been ... but it kind of concerns me that the money is being thrown around and now the whole idea of working out for any team that is interested is going by the boards. With his injuries, you gotta know what you're getting, don't you? Of course, any contract will be pending a physical but its not the same as showing that he can throw the hard fastball and the devastating change.

Manny coming off the market?

Apparently Francona had his traditional GM meeting press conference, and he basically said that he "doesn't see it happening" when asked about Manny getting traded. I think that he would have danced around the question if there was a suspicion that something was going to get done.

Julio Lugo may make a decision this week.

Everyone seems to think that the Sox have the advantage, because the Mets want him to play second base, the Cubs want him in centerfield, and only the Sox want him at the position he prefers, shortstop. But then they may be balking at the price.

But I'll tell you this:

Put Lugo leading off, Drew second. That's two speed guys who could score a lot of runs in front of Papi and Manny. Then Youk protects Manny - he may not have shown a lot of power last year, but he has the batting eye where giving Manny a walk can be followed up by another walk. Then you've got Tek and Lowell, in one order or another, Pedroia and Crisp at the bottom. Pedroia will have less pressure to perform as a 22 year old rookie, and Crisp can turn the lineup over and actually give you three speed guys in a row after the first run through.

me likey, if we can sign Lugo and keep Manny happy enough. I have to believe he won't forfeit twenty million dollars salary if they go to him and say, look we tried.

[Dan Gould]

Well, Lugo and Drew are on board, and all indications are that Manny will need to suck it up and play for us, or else forfeit 20 million dollars. I can definitely handle Drew as a complement and not as a Manny replacement. Apparently Francona has already decided that Lugo will lead off and Youk will bat second. That makes sense with Youk's patience and Lugo's speed. Drew bats fifth and Coco slides down to 8th, where he can run all he wants with the rookie batting behind him. Maybe without the pressure, and a healthy finger, Coco goes back to the hitter he was with Cleveland.

Now, it looks like Gagne is the next target. He's gonna cost, so he better be healthy.

And what is going on with the White Sox?

They trade Garcia for crap, and according to Fox, may be trading Garland next? I know they've got young pitching coming up, but these guys ought to be worth more than what they're talking about.

And for Yank fans, if they do indeed trade Garland to Houston, you can punch Pettite's ticket for a return to the Bronx. Wouldn't expect a return to 2003 form, but he's gotta be a better bet than Pavano, right?

[Chalupa]

And what is going on with the White Sox?

They trade Garcia for crap, and according to Fox, may be trading Garland next? I know they've got young pitching coming up, but these guys ought to be worth more than what they're talking about.

It makes a lot of sense for them. They have a lot of good starting pitching. Additionally, they think Brandon McCarthy is going to turn it up a notch this season. Garcia is due for $10M paycheck this season and then he hits the FA market. So they figure they are saving $10 million by making this trade and they get two bonafide(by their reasoning) prospects. The question(s) that should be asked - what's going on w/ the Phils? Now what do the Phils do w/ Lieber?? Is Gillick mortgaging the future for a shot at the playoffs this season??? Basically the Phils are renting Garcia for the year because we all know there's no way those stingy bastards will re-sign him. Gavin Floyd is a former #1 pick. He definitely has the pitches to make it as a big leaguer, though it remains to be seen if he has the mental fortitude. He started last season in the Phils starting rotation but let the fans get on him a little too much and wound up getting sent backdown. I think the Phils may have given up on him too early but I hope I'm wrong for their sake. I mean of their two prized young pitchers that came up last year - Floyd and Cole Hamels - everyone thought that Floyd was going to be the man last season, not Hamels. The other guy in the deal, Gonzales, came over from the WSox last year as part of the Thome trade. The Sox really like the guy and obviously see something in him that has not shown itself in his numbers thus far.

[Chalupa]

Bonds re-signs w/ Giants - one year $16M.

Wow.

[Dan Gould]

Bonds re-signs w/ Giants - one year $16M.

Wow.

He wanted 18 million and got 16. What a country. What a game.

[Dan Gould]

Supposedly Gagne is making his decision today, but the big news is that Pettite is returning to the Bronx on a 1 year deal.

Interesting that the Astros weren't budging off of 12 million, the Yankees offered 13 and said they'd go as high as 15, but he signs for 16 million? Nice negotiation, Cashman. Did you think you were bidding against yourself?

No doubt this makes the Yankees better, when they are right now relying on Unit, Pavano, and a Japanese pitcher that few think is anything more than a back of the rotation guy, at best. But I seriously doubt we will see the Pettite of old. He was pretty bad in the NL last year, and has battled injuries, too.

[jazzypaul]

And what is going on with the White Sox?

They trade Garcia for crap, and according to Fox, may be trading Garland next? I know they've got young pitching coming up, but these guys ought to be worth more than what they're talking about.

I am getting tired of Kenny Williams thinking that it's a good idea to not spend money. The AL Central might not be as bad ass as the east, but damn, between the Twins and the Indians, it'd be nice if the White Sox would actually spend some money. It's not like they don't have it at this point. Shit, I couldn't get tickets to a game against THE FREAKING ROYALS last season!

(snarky comment about the Cubs outspending the White Sox--and everyone else in the league--deleted.)

[Dan Gould]

So its official now with Pettite, and it always amazes me how its never about money but "feeling wanted". Pettite had an offer of 12 million which they never deviated from. The Yanks offered 16, he told the Astros he was theirs for 14. If you want to stay in Houston, just take the 12 million! You've made 50 million or more in your career, what's 2 million dollars? Other than a smaller fee for your agent, that it is ...

[Quincy]

But I seriously doubt we will see the Pettite of old. He was pretty bad in the NL last year, and has battled injuries, too.

Pettitte had wicked splits last year.

--------------- IP--- H--K/BB--ERA--WHIP-BA

Pre All-Star 121 150 92/43 5.28 1.60 .309

Post All-Star 93.1 88 86/27 2.80 1.23 .249

They're hoping & paying for the Pettitte of the 2nd half.

Edited December 9, 2006 by Quincy

[Dave James]

Dan,

I bet you'll whistle a different tune if The Rocket comes along for the ride. At this point, I'd say this is more than idle speculation. Assuming The Unit's back surgery is successful and he's better than he has been as a result (I know...a big assumption) that would make for a fairly formitable starting rotation.

Up over and out.