2015 MLB Season - Let's Play Two!

[JSngry]

It's only stupid (and it's only happening) because of the inanity of structuring teams into leagues (and divisions) and then not having scheduling that reflects the structuring. If you're going to have leagues and divisions to determine team rankings, have schedules that play games that give an accurate picture of those rankings within those groupings.

Twenty - 20 - Inter-league games, essentially 1/8 of the season, but only three games separating the Cards from the Cubs in the final division standings.

Cubs went 8-11 against the Cardinals, 11-8 against the Pirates.

The Pirates went 9-10 against the Cardinals, and of course, 8-11 against the Cubs.

But inter-league play, check it out - Pirates were 13-7, Cubs 10-10...you've got some evidence here that on the surface suggests that the Cardinals were better than both, but that the Cubs might have been the better NL Central team but that inter-league play obstructed the record from truly reflecting that.

There's a logical inconsistency in evaluating performance across certain boundaries and then limiting the subsequent rewards back within those boundaries that should be obvious, I'd think. Whether or not it's a desirable inconsistency, that's another conversation altogether. For people who grew up only not really experiencing pre-merger NFL or true AL/NL MLB, perhaps such inconsistencies are more inevitabilities than they are inconsistencies. But I'm kinda like, hey, if the World Series is still gonna be AL vs NL (and not necessarily the "best" from each league, either), then schedule accordingly. If it's going to be a battle among the teams with the best overall end of season records, then schedule THAT accordingly. But right now, you're using 162 games to evaluate standing that are relevant at any level past completely arbitrary, at best, 142 games.

True "National League" standings (i.e. - games played by National League teams against each other) for the NL East:

St. Louis - 89-53

Chicago - 87-55

Pittsburgh - 85-57

True National League Central Division standings (i.e. games played by NL Central teams against each other)

St. Louis - 46-30

Chicago - 46-30

Pittsburgh - 34-42

By any standard not including Interleague play, Cubs have the better record. Only due to the inter-league results is the one WC game thing-y even necessary. (Probably nt..no, I have not recalculated all of the NL records along similar lines. I'd like to see the results, just not this late at night...).

IMO, the only tragedy is that this whole "inter-league" thing (and to a lesser extent, the imbalanced schedule in general) is not even (as far as I know) being attempted attempted as anything other than a gimmick. It could work, but it would require a pretty radical jettisoning of baseball's historical "traditions". But hell, that shit is over already, yeah, new memories being made every day, but, you know, everybody gets new memories made every day, such is life. At some point you have to ask - what am I being sold here - the tradition of baseball, or the implanted memories of the tradition of baseball?

What? Owners play that game? OUTRAGEOUS!

And don't get me started on the inter-league play application of the DH. That shit is an uncomfortable compromise at best in WS, but in REGULAR season games that are gonna go back into a record evaluated strictly on intra-league records? C'mon...

I'm an AL guy, I like the DH. But the notion that my team's - AL or NL - regular season record may be fatally affected by some games where they're playing by some other "league's" rules...that's kinda like if I get busted for pot in the US, you're gonna send me to Iraq for trial, but then I have my sentence carried out in Japan, or some weird shit like that.

MLB is not yet the United Federation Of Planets, nor do I see any indication that they have eyes to be. The cynicism inherent in that lack of desire, hey, there's a myopic tragedy in a history full of them. Either go all the way or go nowhere. Either way works, it's the dingleberry aspect of it as it now stands that sucks.

Otherwise, hey, shit happens, numbers are not always your friend, sometimes they will fuck you with neither guilt nor remorse, I've seen it happen, we're seeing it now, don't blame numbers for being numbers when you leave them unsupervised, you know how they do, THIS is how they do. And then they run back into the shadows until the next time, which, who knows when that will be?

Do not leave your numbers unsupervised, baseball,  that's all I'm asking of you. Especially at night.

 

 

 

 

[JSngry]

Ok, this is easy enough...

Overall 2015 MLB final regular season records (per tradion, RED = AL, BLUE=NL; as NOT per tradition, bold = division winner, italic = WC teams under given scenario).

Team	W1	L1
St. Louis Cardinals	100	62
Pittsburgh Pirates	98	64
Chicago Cubs	97	65
Kansas City Royals	95	67
Toronto Blue Jays	93	69
Los Angeles Dodgers	92	70
New York Mets	90	72
Texas Rangers	88	74
New York Yankees	87	75
Houston Astros	86	76
Los Angeles Angels	85	77
San Francisco Giants	84	78
Washington Nationals	83	79
Minnesota Twins	83	79
Baltimore Orioles	81	81
Cleveland Indians	81	80
Tampa Bay Rays	80	82
Arizona Diamondbacks	79	83
Boston Red Sox	78	84
Chicago White Sox	76	86
Seattle Mariners	76	86
San Diego Padres	74	88
Detroit Tigers	74	87
Miami Marlins	71	91
Milwaukee Brewers	68	94
Colorado Rockies	68	94
Oakland Athletics	68	94
Atlanta Braves	67	95
Cincinnati Reds	64	98
Philadelphia Phillies	63	99

And, minus inter-league records:

Team	W2	L2
St. Louis Cardinals	89	53
Chicago Cubs	87	55
Pittsburgh Pirates	85	57
Kansas City Royals	82	60
Los Angeles Dodgers	82	60
Toronto Blue Jays	81	61
New York Mets	81	61
Texas Rangers	77	65
Los Angeles Angels	77	65
New York Yankees	76	66
Washington Nationals	75	67
Minnesota Twins	75	67
San Francisco Giants	71	71
Houston Astros	70	72
Baltimore Orioles	69	73
Cleveland Indians	69	72
Arizona Diamondbacks	68	74
Seattle Mariners	68	74
Chicago White Sox	67	75
San Diego Padres	67	75
Tampa Bay Rays	66	76
Boston Red Sox	65	77
Detroit Tigers	65	76
Miami Marlins	64	78
Colorado Rockies	63	79
Atlanta Braves	61	81
Milwaukee Brewers	60	82
Oakland Athletics	57	85
Cincinnati Reds	57	85
Philadelphia Phillies	55	77

One year, very small sample size, but ok, if this is any indication, inter-league play probably would not have affected either league's division titles, defintely would not have if this would have been the full season, 142 games instead of 162. What happens if you play the extra 20 all within your own league and/or division, though...hard to say without a deeper dive into the stats, splits, and probabilities, none of which I am remotely equipped to undertake.

But as for the Wild Card..Angles, y'all maybe got screwed. Oh well, too bad! And Astros, odds are that y'all definitely caught a break. Go Astros!

Cubs and Pirates, both y'all be thankful that this is 2015 and not 1968. You too, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Astros, and Rangers (errr...Senators). No room at the in(n) for none but the Royals & Cards. It'd be the Whitey Herzog Memorial World Series Of Baseball, ok by me!

You kids today, you just don't know...20 teams. two leagues, 162 games (except for 1961, which was weird in all kinds of ways) and then before that, 16 teams, 154 games) , then the World Series.  NO playoffs, and if you had a Game 163, it wasn't to see who was gonna be a wild card entrant. More hearts than these Wild Card ones were broken by THAT system, believe me. And they had to walk 20 miles to school in the snow and 30 miles back in the rain  before they could cry about it. Hell, in 2012, my heart was crying that the World Series was still not best-of-nine. Life's a bitch and then you die. At least until pitchers and catchers report.

But I digress....to the matter originally at hand:

From this one sample, the only variance effected by inter-league record was in the second Wild Card slot, and only in the American league. So if I'm gonna be honest with these numbers, I'm gonna have to call my preference to either move all the way forward or all the way back with inter-league play primarily an esthetic one. A morally and logically sound one, imo, but hey, it's not wrong, so it'll just have to be a choice - the RIGHT choice!

Combine dingleberry inter-league scheduling with 2 Wild Card teams, though, hmmm....too much of not yet enough of a good thing, perhaps? Time will tell?

Either way, right now it's ALL about the...

 

[Tim McG]

Only seven teams at 90 wins or better.

Wow.

[Scott Dolan]

A win is a win, and a loss is a loss. I don't care what team, division, or league it came from. 

That argument against inter-league has always been a non-starter. 

[JSngry]

Yeah, well, that's where it starts getting Wall Street-y, perhaps not in intent, but definitely in eventual outcome. A profit is a profit, no matter what, at the end of the day, all wins/profits are equal, profit and value become the same thing.

Some people are totally cool with that. I'm not. It's a question of esthetics, and it'll be what it'll be.

[JSngry]

And either a win is a win and a loss is a loss, or else it's neither stupid nor shameful that either the second or third best regular season record will be absent from the true playoffs, it's just the breaks number-fucking again. That's going to happen as long as you structure your teams one way, your schedule another, and your playoffs yet another. Hell, it's going to happen, period. A cutoff point is a cutoff point. Miss as good as mile, etc.

MLB is still presenting the World Series as NL vs AL, but they're heading towards an increasingly "global" scheduling model. At some point, if you want true "fairness" in seeding (and, really, the whole notion of "seeding" in MLB is a relatively recent one), then you do away with "leagues" and "divisions", schedule play among all teams in a balanced way that still plays on fan interest, adjust the number of regular season games, play the season out, take the X-best records, and then have your playoffs there, best records play weakest records, still surprises, but then the whatever-arbitrary-number-of-best-records are chosen to participate, everybody who gets in gets an equal shot to make it to the "World Series".

That would be MLB, what, 5.0? 1.0 being the original pro game/dead ball era, 2.0 the live ball era, 3.0 the post-Jackie Robinson era (and 3.5 the post free agency era), and 4.0 the advent of divisional play.

 

[Scott Dolan]

No, but a nice try.

Seeding should be best record to worst in the playoffs. And with 5 teams in, only the fourth and fifth best records should be playing in the Wild Card game. Not the second and third. There is absolutely no logic to that whatsoever. 

And all 30 teams play a 162 game schedule. They all end up with a win/loss record totaling 162 (though sometimes 161) games. That's about as "balanced" as it gets, or even needs to be. 

[JSngry]

Except that it becomes increasingly, and deliberately, less balanced as it goes along.

If all that mattered was the final outcome of a 162 game schedule, you could have the Yankees and Mets play each other 30 times a year, and it wouldn't matter. Same thing with Cubs-Cardinals, Giants-Dodgers. Maximize the profits from traditional "rivalries" and then, hey, a win is a win, and if either Mets or Yankees have a suck team that results in the other getting a lopsided final W-L record, so be it.

I mean, ok, you could do that. But would you want to?

and even if you would want to, if that's the esthetic choice that the zeitgeist deems appropriate, so be it, but let it be that with the recognition that you've shifted the methodology of valuation, and therefore the nature of what the "championship" represents. Nothing intrinsically "wrong" with that, just call it what it is. Otherwise, it's the Wynton-ising of Baseball, Ken Burns, Commissioner of both.

Wall Street or Wynton...hell of a choice there...I'll, uh, pass.

[JSngry]

Metaphorical Metaphysics of Sports Economics aside, here's a fine, fun piece by the consistently entertaining Grant Bisbee:

Here's why it will suck when your team loses in the postseason

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2015/10/6/9460383/2015-mlb-postseason-predictions?_ga=1.142635830.205038022.1415141294

[Scott Dolan]

 

If all that mattered was the final outcome of a 162 game schedule, you could have the Yankees and Mets play each other 30 times a year, and it wouldn't matter. Same thing with Cubs-Cardinals, Giants-Dodgers. Maximize the profits from traditional "rivalries" and then, hey, a win is a win, and if either Mets or Yankees have a suck team that results in the other getting a lopsided final W-L record, so be it.

I mean, ok, you could do that. But would you want to?

 

They don't, Jim. 

That entire comment is completely irrelevant.

"If they legalize gay marriage, that opens the door for being able to marry your dog!" 

Yes, that's the depth you just sank to. 

[JSngry]

Oh, sorry. Didn't mean to do that.

But, sunk I apparently have. Who knew, and oh well!

Instead of dot races and such, baseball should have gay humandog marriages, complete with on-field consummation. "Seventh Inning Stretch" takes on a whole new meaning!

But please, no wagering!

Wall Street, come and get it!

[Scott Dolan]

Happens to the best of us, brother. 

I do "get" what you're saying, but I think you're really taking it to unnecessary extremes. 

As I stated earlier, I've only been truly following MLB since 2002. So I certainly sympathize with those who have been following it for decades. 

It's like me and the NFL. I can go into super-sized "get the fuck off my motherfucking lawn you piece of shit kids, before I kill you and chop your worthless bodies up into little pieces!" when it comes to that. Been watching it since 1978 when I was 8 years old. And I don't like what it has become, although I have been adapting a bit in recent years. 

I'm still scarred from the first time I heard "hitting a defenseless receiver" a little over a decade ago...

Edited October 6, 2015 by Scott Dolan

[JSngry]

Dude, you were not around for the whole AFL-NFL thing, and just how much of an earthquake, like, civilization-destroying earthquake the whole merger thing was for some people.

I tell you - there were early rumors that the Cowboys were going to the AFL (iirc, the Colts went in their place?), and there were people, grownass men, mind you, who were holding back tears about that happening.

And I'm still not sure when the whole interconference play thing started. Not sure if it was right away or not. But your example of the New England/Philly thing that one year, hey NFC/AFC, that's how that happened, that's the only way that happened. Justice be damned, gotta maintain those borders at all cost.

Basketball seems to absorb all this stuff without missing a beat. NBA/ABA merger went off pretty happily, iirc. Must have something to do with the ball almost always being in motion. either that or Dr. J.

What I otherwise distrust about these trends is not the broadening of the competition, that's a wonderful thing, actually, but how it is, as I see it, coming at the expense of a real sense of "local" to the process. I think we as people like to have "our team" represent "us" in some sense, and then to have "us" "evaluated" on what is essentially a level playing field. To the sense that interleague scheduling is arbitrary rather than uniform, it feels to me like the teams are becoming less "local guys" and more and more mercenaries who wear our uniform. We, in turn, are increasingly being asked to consume a product rather than invest in it.

Now yeah, I can hear everybody, myself included, hollering, well hell, free agency did that decades ago, why are you just now getting crotchety about it? Fair question, and the only fair answer is that that's where my line is. Nothing more complicated than that. We all got our lines, that's where mine is. I'm a lot more ok personally with labor having the right to determine its own destiny than I am with being sold on the notion that a "championship" is basically just hitting the lottery. The more people who buy lottery tickets, the lower your odds of winning are, but when it's just you and a few other people, your odds may be higher, but the sweating in awaiting the outcome seems more justified, you know, I got a 1-1,000,000 chance of winning this vs i got a 1-10 chance of winning this, or hell, i got a 50% chance of winning this, i know which set of odds I'm gonna be more personally invested in.

And that's why I don't play the lottery. Ever. Never. But you wanna play coin toss with a few quarters and try to make Dollar Menu Money, hey, that I'm good for.

but again, that's esthetics. Art vs Commerce, never will be decided once and for all. I'm actually in favor of full interleague play (which would then be inter-what, exactly? The NFL stayed the NFL, is MLB gonna have to change to the MLBL?), and maybe this period is a period of transition towards that. I hope it is.

Just keep in mind (and this is jsut between us, ok?), that in every corner of the universes known and unknown, there are sensors that listen 24/7/365-6 in 360 Surroundsound for the sound of anybody - anybody - saying "it doesn't matter, really". As soon as that happens, flashing lights, screaming bells, and honking whistles all proclaining OPPORTUNITY go off in two distinct offices - one, The Office Of Giving You What You Think You Want At A Price You May Not Want To Pay Right Now, the other, The Office Of What You May Not Really Want But Are Willing To Take Right Now Because The Price Is REALLY Attractive.

Both offices hope to have representatives come to your door shortly. Ask for positive ID when they do!

[Neal Pomea]

Truth be told, I'm just about ready to say Fuck The Rangers and let's go Astros. I can go there, legit too. For this year, anyway.

 

 

 

And really, you kids get of my Astroturf - this second wild card shit is just vulgar.

Go Astros.

Now you're chunking in there!

(I repeat myself whenever someone mentions Loel Passe)

 

Away with inter-league play so long as they don't even play by the same rules.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Neal Pomea

[JSngry]

Neither Gene nor Loel were not for dabblers, each in their own way. Gene's in Cooperstown now, right? Loel lives on only in our memories, but DAMN, what crazyass memories they be. "PEPPY-TONE!!!!" And any single win could be the start of a World Series run, fans!

I was a kid, and believe me, I halfway believed that to be true, in the part of my brain that had no interest in reality, real or potential.

Tell me how that in ANY way is normal or healthy. But, you know, who cares, it was real at the time!

My mom threw out hardly any of my baseball stuff, so I can't really be angry about this, but...remember when Merrill-Lynch began their "Merrill-Lynch is bullish on America" campaign, the commercial with a herd of bulls stampeding? Well, that year, the Astros had a promo poster (a bigass cardboard one) with a picture of the Astros running like that herd, with a replica font Loel Passe Is Bullish On The Astros all the way across it. We just happened to be in Houston on the day of that promo, totally random luck, but good go, I LMAO-ed for YEARS after that. It was one of those things where if you didn't get it, you really didn't get it, but if you did...

Mom threw that one out, god rest her soul, and I've yet to find it reprinted on the net. If you happen to see it anywhere, in any form, please take a picture and post it here.

Loel pretty much stayed hot:

http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/63bateman.mp3

http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/67wynnhr.mp3

http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/70wynn.mp3

http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/72ccitphr.mp3 See-Sar suh-Dayna...an inside-the-park home run for The Superstar of the future!"

Gene getting hot, he could do it when he felt it:

http://www.astrosdaily.com/audio/72griffin.mp3

 

 

[JSngry]

Astros comin' to play, y'all.

Royals, Astros, Jays, Rangers, not a team in this set that I've ever not liked. Go Rangers! #NeverEverQuit of course, but it should be all good no mater what happens.

[Brad]

I like the present system because it emphasizes the importance of winning the division and not making the WC equal or co-equal to a division winner; it devalues the WC but still gives WCs a chance to play in October.  Seeding teams would defeat that concept.  Yes, it's a shame that either Cubs or Pirates will go home but that's just the way it worked out this year.  On Sirius XM MLB program, Steve Phillips said that for those who decry one of those teams going home, the answer is make sure you win the division next time  

As as far as the Yankees, they looked dead the last week or two and it carried over.  The over under was around 83 or 84 so they defied expectations and had a better year than anticipated.  

[Scott Dolan]

 

What I otherwise distrust about these trends is not the broadening of the competition, that's a wonderful thing, actually, but how it is, as I see it, coming at the expense of a real sense of "local" to the process. I think we as people like to have "our team" represent "us" in some sense, and then to have "us" "evaluated" on what is essentially a level playing field. To the sense that interleague scheduling is arbitrary rather than uniform, it feels to me like the teams are becoming less "local guys" and more and more mercenaries who wear our uniform. We, in turn, are increasingly being asked to consume a product rather than invest in it.

OK, so I have to ask.

What the hell does this even mean? 

 

And as far as your lottery analogy goes, I suppose that would hold true if they only played a single game and the loser goes home. But, tha's only in the Wild Card. The rest are 5 and 7 game series. That all but completely removes any random nature from the proceedings. The better team could lose a coin flip against an inferior opponent, but they likely won't lose a 5 or 7 game series. 

[JSngry]

I don't know, man, it means what it says, that pretty soon gay dogs will be playing baseball and people will be getting married by lotto tickets.

[Scott Dolan]

No, seriously. What do you mean by "local" to the process? 

MLB is still the most local/regional professional sport in America. And by leaps and bounds. 

[JSngry]

I don't feel particularly local when the Rangers play the Padres and it's not, like, a spring training game. Why we playing these clowns? They're not if our league, for damn sure not in our division. We doing this for charity, like for the Shriner or somebody, right? They're gonna play a few innings and then, what, Tommy :Lasrda's gonna come out and say a few good words about the RBI program, and then they play a few more innings, and if it's a tie, hey, ok, we gotta get ready for the real game tomorrow, the one against the Twins, but on the way out, you'll have an opportunity to speak to the players, get autographs, and make contributions.

Oh, whaaaa..we're playing the Padres, and it COUNTS? Like, in the STANDINGS? WTF? Fuck that, I'll go over to Six Flags then, see if I can get me a piece of that wrongful death money.

[Tim McG]

Hey Aggie...

How 'bout them Astros?

I knew they'd play better in the AL West. Congrats!

I don't feel particularly local when the Rangers play the Padres and it's not, like, a spring training game. Why we playing these clowns? They're not if our league, for damn sure not in our division. We doing this for charity, like for the Shriner or somebody, right? They're gonna play a few innings and then, what, Tommy :Lasrda's gonna come out and say a few good words about the RBI program, and then they play a few more innings, and if it's a tie, hey, ok, we gotta get ready for the real game tomorrow, the one against the Twins, but on the way out, you'll have an opportunity to speak to the players, get autographs, and make contributions.

Oh, whaaaa..we're playing the Padres, and it COUNTS? Like, in the STANDINGS? WTF? Fuck that, I'll go over to Six Flags then, see if I can get me a piece of that wrongful death money.

I never much cared for that inter-league stuff either.

For me, it was always the fun part of the World Series to see the NL square off against the AL. Besides, that DH nonsense spoils the game for us hardcore baseball purists. I can tolerate it for a couple WS games, but not an entire season's worth.

I'm with Jim on this one.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Tim McG

[Scott Dolan]

I don't feel particularly local when the Rangers play the Padres and it's not, like, a spring training game. Why we playing these clowns? They're not if our league, for damn sure not in our division. We doing this for charity, like for the Shriner or somebody, right? They're gonna play a few innings and then, what, Tommy :Lasrda's gonna come out and say a few good words about the RBI program, and then they play a few more innings, and if it's a tie, hey, ok, we gotta get ready for the real game tomorrow, the one against the Twins, but on the way out, you'll have an opportunity to speak to the players, get autographs, and make contributions.

Oh, whaaaa..we're playing the Padres, and it COUNTS? Like, in the STANDINGS? WTF? Fuck that, I'll go over to Six Flags then, see if I can get me a piece of that wrongful death money.

So all teams should only play teams in their own division? Or league? 

You're still going to have plenty of tie-breakers in place should they become necessary, and each win counts as one in the standings. How the Padres are any less "local" than the Angels is beyond me. 

I never much cared for that inter-league stuff either.

For me, it was always the fun part of the World Series to see the NL square off against the AL. Besides, that DH nonsense spoils the game for us hardcore baseball purists. I can tolerate it for a couple WS games, but not an entire season's worth.

I'm with Jim on this one.

Yeah, nothing beats watching a pitcher strike out 4 or 5 times a game.

[JSngry]

Fan of the DH here. I went over to that dark side a loooong time ago.

Inter-league play is something I'd love to see, but only if it's a fully integrated concept. As it is now, you get these weird windows where you're playing teams that you know you've seen before, and that you will see again, and then, hey what's this? Why, we have an exchange student visiting! and you know how it is with exchange students, it's fun, it's cool, y'all tease each other, you learn a few of each other's words, get into as much safe trouble as you can, and yeah, you make "a friend that will last a lifetime", but shit, you both know that this is all gonna be over shortly, after which time you both going home to tend to your real business.

That's what interleague play as it is now structured is - perioodic visits from exchange students. REAL interleague play would mean that you're going to a real school, the same school. with these people, and that they're ALL gonna come to your campus, you're ALL gonna go to theirs, and the fact that the exchange student aced all the history tests and flunked all the English tests will no longer be cause for momentary frustration/amusement. Teacher's gonna put the exchange student's grades into the pool to figure the curve? WTF?OHHELLNO!!!!!

It's gonna take some rebooting, for sure. But I say it'll make more sense when it happens. There won't be any more exchange students coming over to teach you what flerpenerfin means, no, you gonna need to know that, because it WILL be on the final, everybody's final.

[Scott Dolan]

So partial integration makes it no longer "local", but full integration would?