Guy Berger

Or a Bad Cheop Day!!! (Sorry, comrade, I couldn't resist.) Haha Menace, good one! Guy

I don't care what label it's on though I would prefer better sound. According to Losin there are three dates:

Yes, should have started working on it HARD back in the mid-70's as far as I'm concerned. But with the big oil companies lining the pockets of politicians for decades so they could protect their little energy monopoly...didn't happen. We're going to seriously regret it and sooner than we'd like. Steam Engines weren't such a bad thing... I think it's important to keep in mind that investing in alternative energies, more efficient energies, etc is not a freebie - it has costs and there is some optimal balance between bearing these costs and bearing higher energy prices. That said, to lean on my "energy diet" analogy further, it is more comfortable to lose 50 lbs over the span of two years than all in one week. Guy

A former Saudi Oil Minister once said “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” It's probably true that given current technology and sources of energy there are "limits to growth", but I've never been convinced by Malthusian arguments like the one below. As the price of crude oil increases previously uneconomical sources of both oil and other energy become economical. R&D into alternative energy accelerates. Technology improves energy efficiency. Consumers and businesses alter their behavior to reduce energy consumption. In the short and medium run we'll have to undergo an "energy diet" (implying slower growth) but once this adjustment is complete economic growth will return to trend. Guy

Ah yes, the Democrats, is there no problem they cannot solve??? Superman wishes he had the track record of Democrats! I cannot wait til the Dems sock it to an American cartel like OPEC, and American companies such as British Petroleum, and Dutch Shell!!! Well, there is plenty that could be done because the private companies (Shell, BP) have assets in the US and geopolitical pressure could be brought to bear on OPEC. That said, it is unlikely that any of those actions would do much to stop the long run upward trajectory of crude oil prices. Guy

Interesting article. No real conclusion but it does set out the issues clearly.

Interesting article -- I know that cricket has been slowly commercializing and it is probably inevitable that golf will do the same.

I think the question is whether earlier investment in alternative energies, more efficient engines, etc would have reduced our dependance on petroleum for energy. But that investment isn't free either -- we would have lower energy prices but higher taxes and/or lower government spending. Guy

It's not just an issue of "what's left in the ground" -- there's lots -- but also that not much of it is getting pumped out and a lot of THAT has to do with the policies of countries that own it. Guy

Because prices are rising to adjust. That's the point of supply and demand -- when supply decreases or demand increases, prices go up. Guy 'cept that ain't the result. Demand has not fallen to keep the supply up. Back to the classroom. I'm not sure what you are saying here. My sole point was responding to Jim's argument that a supply-demand framework requires shortages. It doesn't - prices adjust. As far as the US, recent data suggests that gasoline consumption is in fact decreasing. Finally, rising prices don't necessarily imply a fall in quantity demanded if other factors are driving an increase in demand. China and India have a rapidly growing need for energy due to industrialization, hence the quantity of oil they consume is increasing even as the price goes up. Guy

Krugman may or may not be right on oil prices currently experiencing a speculative bubble. (Which can largely be boiled down to the idea that the actual price of crude oil has diverged from its "fundamental value".) However, he is 100% right that the fundamental value of oil (and other forms of energy) IS increasing, due to rapid growth in India, China and other developing countries. It's a little late here for me to dissect the article posted by Berigan, but it strikes me that this is largely a mishmash of accusation and doesn't contain many serious arguments. I would like to say that: (A) "Speculation" (as commonly understood) is not the same as a "speculative asset bubble". Plenty of speculation can happen in situations where assets trade close to their fundamental values. (B) "Market manipulation" is different from "speculation" or "speculative asset bubbles". The latter two can happen without any market manipulation whatsoever.

Because prices are rising to adjust. That's the point of supply and demand -- when supply decreases or demand increases, prices go up. Guy

I am not an expert on the oil industry, but how much oil does "big oil" actually own? Most reserves are in countries that have nationalized their oil industry. Guy

I don't really see global demand for energy going lower. Its rate of growth will probably slow (are China and India really going to grow at 10% per year when oil is at $xxxxx per barrel?) but that doesn't imply a fall in demand, just (at best) a stabilization. I am not sure I believe the bubble story, though it is certainly possible Guy

I don't know why I slept on this band for as long as I did, but this week I heard "Victoria" for the first time. Wow. One of the best pop songs I've discovered in a long time. Guy

I'll give it a try - pioneer - Ornette Coleman. No doubt a pioneer, but even he didn't literally invent a new style -- there were precedents for his innovations. Guy

Yes, I don't think it could be stated any better than this. I also think that focusing exclusively on genres tends to overstate and understate his influence at the same time. Guy

My research in grad school was in international trade and development economics so I find this stuff fascinating. And especially sub-Saharan Africa, where the #1 tool for lifting large numbers of people out of poverty - the market - is not doing its job very well. For what it's worth I should've mentioned -- while India is far, far superior within its own borders in obeying its citizens' rights, in both Myanmar and sub-Saharan Africa its behavior is little better than China.

Damn, just bought these from amazon... Guy