Guy Berger

During the early 90s Sweden (don't know about Finland or Norway) recapitalized its banking system, on a relative scale much larger than the Fed's loan to JPMorgan (though as they say, "the night is still young"). Swedish taxpayers took on substantial credit risk, and didn't recover all their money (but probably avoided turning what was already a very severe recession into a complete implosion of their economy). I'm not that psyched about the increase in share price for Bear holders or the subsidy for JPMorgan to swallow Bear -- but I don't think a full-blown expropriation/nationalization package would have been politically feasible in the time needed. It was an ugly situation with no pleasant alternatives. Guy

Websites A podcast of Heidi Holland's interview with Mr Mugabe is available from Penguin. The Sunday Times, a South African newspaper, publishes an excerpt from the book. Book details Dinner with Mugabe: The Untold Story of a Freedom Fighter who Became a Tyrant By Heidi Holland Penguin South Africa; 250 pages; 210 rand

Part of the problem is that long-term medical studies can't always use controlled experiments -- that means you have to rely on statistical techniques to tease out causal relationships. And if the statistical techniques are not up to snuff scientists can get spurious correlations. In combination with distorted incentives for academics and scientific publications (I don't think the bias is solely with mainstream journalists), this can lead to incorrect research being published in the short term. Guy

Yup! :tup

I'd be interested to see the study itself. Statistics like this can be extremely misleading - if your chance of developing brain cancer was %.042 before using a cell phone, then if that chance doubled it would be a whopping %.084 - definitely a double in risk, but maybe not a huge health scare for the world. Two things to think about: 1) Dan's point -- without knowing the baseline, it's tough to assess the significance of a doubling in rates. 2) I don't know how global cell phone usage compares to cigarette or asbestos exposure -- so even if this does turn out to be a "massive public health problem", the individual risk may nevertheless be quite low. I haven't seen the paper and don't see any reason to dismiss this out of hand. This guy is not a crackpot but rather a well-respected surgeon. That said, without more details, I think some skepticism is in order. I am having some difficulty finding information about Khurana's actual study beyond this sensationalist article, so if someone has a link, please share.

I second everything Jim says below. This is a great recording. No frills, not the typical contrived jazz "live album", but just a great band in action doing what they do best. You'll be well-pleased by Money..., I assure you. It's live and unedited. Virtually screams WORKING BAND IN ACTION!!!! if you know what I mean (and I know that you do). This is right at the time when Ball began to open up harmonically, and if there's not a lot of it going on, there's enough to notice. There's also a heretofore unheard Zawinul composition that has a Mingus-y/early-Shorter quality to it. Pretty interesting historical find, that one is. But overall, the attraction is just the energy and the good vibe. These fools didn't goof on nothin', they just played it all really, REALLY, well. And play it all they did - the balance of presentation is impeccable. From bossa to boogaloo to hardass uptempo burns to standard balladry to progressive, it's all hear, and it all sounds just so damn FINE. God bless Cannonball Adderley, and God bless working bands, if any still exist. But - you'll probably be less well-pleased when you read in the liner notes what else was on the tapes and din't get released here...

I'd like to point out the fallacy of presumption inherent in this ideologically-driven line of argument . The assumption that avoidance of regulatory controls causes recklessly greedy behavior or results in greater excesses than laissez-faire policies is absurd . Obviously the causation runs the other way , as regulatory controls are the result of , not the cause of , such excesses . The fact that people will find ways around laws is no reason not to have laws except in those cases where non-compliance is so widespread that enforcement costs outweigh the social utility of the law . Needless to say , the presumption that financial regulations are of this type is purely ideological rather than empirically grounded . 1) In general, I agree. Though I'd like to elaborate -- sometimes the choice is not behind malfunctioning markets and ideal-world regulation but between malfunctioning markets and malfunctioning regulations. Not an argument against additional regulation in this case (it's necessary), but against feel-good regulation that won't actually accomplish anything. 2) Regulations do generate profit opportunities for some economic agents. These opportunities can be one of the causes of regulatory policy. Not an argument in favor of or against regulation, just a political-economy observation. Guy

I'll have to at least partially disagree. The rhythm section sounds GREAT -- one of their best performances with the band, locking into some very funky, very greasy grooves. Lloyd himself sounds terrible. I will check out this clip -- I was aware that Motian had played with the group after JD's departure but was not aware of any recordings. Some of the best recordings I have of this group are some boots from their 1967 European tour -- just amazing, and Lloyd's playing is really strong. Guy

More conservative lending ( income verification , increased down-payment requirements etc. ) mainly affects the availability of long-term fixed-rate mortgages not their cost . Unlike short-term adjustable-rate mortgage rates which are affected by Fed rate cuts , the rates on longer-term fixed-rate mortgages reflect long-term bond yields which are themselves a reflection of inflation expectations ( the persistent offshore bid under Treasuries from foreign central banks certainly complicates inferences from bond yields to inflation expectations , though that support has weakened of late ) . In any event , long-term mortgage rates have been downward sticky and not followed short-term interest rates down because the recent series of deep Fed rate cuts is occurring against a backdrop of rising inflation , thus stoking fears of even greater inflation over the longer-term . In addition , with mortgage originators having more difficulty selling into the increasingly risk-averse secondary market , they are now having to keep new loans on their own books , meaning that risk is now being more accurately priced , putting additional upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates . I think Chas does a good job of explaining this. There are three things keeping long-term rates up even when short-term rates decline: 1) Risk spreads on various interest rates have been shooting up at the same time as the Fed has cut its policy rate -- these countervailing effects mean that other rates have not decreased as much as the Fed Funds Rate and in some cases have incrased. 2) Inflation worries. If you think inflation is going to be higher down the pike due to aggressive Fed easing right now, that will push up longer rates. (Though as a purely technical aside, I find these arguments to be somewhat unsatisfying once you get into the long end of the yield curve, say 15 vs 30 year rates.) 3) The future path of rates. It is fairly unusual for rates to remain very low or very high for a long period of time -- moving into the future 2, 5, 10, 15 years you expect them to revert to the mean. That path is more important in determining long term rates than a short term blip up or down. Guy

It goes much deeper than that. The clash between China and Tibet is an ancient battle of races, religion(s) and cultures. Beijing claims Tibet has been part of Chinese territory since the Yuan Dynasty circa 1271. But the Tibetan tribe inhabited the region long before that, developing their own language and indigenous culture. Since forcefully occupying Tibet in 1950, China has implemented a policy of destroying its history, traditions and Buddhist beliefs; sadly, they have been largely successful. Recently, Beijing has expanded the settlement of Han Chinese in Tibet as part of its policy of taking over the indigenous population. Boycotting the Olympics may have strong symbolic significance. A boycott on buying Chinese goods in combination with one on the games would do more to throw a wrench in Beijing's totalitarian imperialism than just the latter. I think the Dalai Lama's solution is the right one -- Tibet as a part of China (perhaps with some autonomy) where Tibetans are free to live the way they want to live. I think the key comparison is to Turkey's relationship with its Kurds (also dealt with very poorly) or other countries that have large restive minorities. Also -- China is not "totalitarian" but rather "authoritarian"; there's a huge difference.

Read the text. Volcker's a smart dude and I bet he thanks his lucky stars he isn't in Bernanke's predicament right now. Guy

Well, there really isn't anything to do except hoping that China eventually adopts a freer political system and maybe applying cosmetic pressure in that direction. Guy

Strong currencies are great for consumers because they make imports cheaper. Also, a strengthening (rather than strong) currency will reduce inflationary pressures. Conversely, a weak currency is bad for consumers because imports are expensive and a weakening currency can increase inflation. Both are going on in the United States right now. Nevertheless, the dollar needs to remain weak for a while in order to even out massive global imbalances; our country has been borrowing from the world too long. As long as it remains relatively orderly... Guy

This one has Garbarek sounding a little grittier than usual, which I like. Guy

I disagree -- there are some great records in the Lloyd ECM catalogue. However, the gushing reviews they and he get are way out of proportion. Guy

I don't care what they will say... I do think it's bad that these guys will not bear the full consequences of their actions. I think some serious re-regulation of the financial services industry (which will unfortunately include plenty of bad/foolish/knee-jerk aspects) is absolutely necessary - unfortunately it's a little too late for the current patient. Guy

Yeah, you can't skip Forest Flower (the album). Dream Weaver is IMHO the best. Despite the fact that Lloyd's playing on the album Soundtrack is quite weak, I recommend the live version of "Sombrero Sam". Jarrett and DeJohnette just lock into this incredibly tight, funky groove -- recommended all fans of late 60s soul jazz. (For that matter, the second half of "Forest Flower" from that album is excellent too -- as long as Lloyd isn't playing.) Guy