Dan Gould

Wt. Sox lineup is sick. I think you have a reason to be excited this year. Anything your team can to do help make my fantasy of a Yankee-less, Red Sox-less post season I am all for. Should be more interesting in the AL central than we thought. NL central as well. I know Dan, Zen, et al, wouldn't like it...but not having those 2 in the playoffs = more interesting ball. They play "winning" ball, but 4 hour games...yech. The fact is that the Yankees and Sox are successful offensive clubs because they have professional hitters who give professional at-bats. You wear out the starter and get to the bullpen early. The result is long games and more offense. So sue us - but if you think there is any chance that both teams will miss the playoffs, well, I'll take that bet.

I think the odds are very good she'll be given another chance because publicity from a run on Idol is probably worth 100 times whatever publicity she got for her first record. Add in the track record of successful country singers starting on the show, and you can be sure she'll be getting her push on the radio very soon.

Well I guess we just weren't supposed to win this motherfucking game after all. On the plus side: We showed that Wang isn't quite the blossoming ace some people were making him out to be. In fact, this performance was very much on a par with most of his starts against the Sox, except that it came at Yankee Stadium. But the history kinda suggests that it was last week's gem that was the fluke. Tomorrow is still Mussina vs Beckett, and the Yankees had to go deep into the bullpen to win this. Can Mussina last even six innings? Joba is still gone and the only guy the Yankees didn't use was Farnsworthless. We've got Okajima, MDC and Papelbon rested, and Beckett should be ready for a seven or eight inning start anyway. Pedroia, Manny, Drew, Youkilis and Casey are all tearing the cover off the ball, and Ortiz is getting his shit together slowly but surely. The pitching may not be what it was last year but there are a lot of good hitters on this club.

This motherfucking umpire is a piece of shit. I hope he enjoys cashing Hank Steinbrenner's check.

Has anyone else read this book since this thread was active? The reviews, and Allen's wrestling with his memories made me put this on my Christmas list. It was tough sledding in some ways and I've only just finished the book today (specifically I found a significant portion of the recollections of various people who knew Haig to be not illuminating enough to merit inclusion - if the other 500 pages of the original transcript was more of the same, I'm not sure I'd have ever finished the book. There were also aspects of the recollections that wandered too far afield from the subject to be included.) I do recommend it though because the writing is very good and the story is fascinating, and I'd like to say to Allen that as others have said, people reveal different aspects of themselves to different people. The fact that Haig didn't reveal his pathologies to you shouldn't make you feel bad about the relationship or your perception of Haig as a person. Even though the book made me detest Haig the man, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have fond memories of the time you spent with him.

Yeah, he's very entertaining. Not the greatest voice, perhaps, but a good singer in a style that I tend to like. And I really love his attitude. He seems to care less - and be genuinely surprised - that he's even made it this far. Always seems a bit stoned and goofy; a breath of fresh air. Meanwhile, I'm in love with Brooke, who seems so genuine. I can't stand the guy for that mf hair. I can see not liking the guy for that hair, but I know a few young guys with hair like that are genuinely nice persons who I'd much rather be around than many others with carefully coiffed conservative hair. I'm sure that's true, but that doesn't take away from the fact that his hair is ridiculous.

Very frustrating, especially since they seemed to imply that having the x-rays and blood work done in advance would save time and money. Now, as it turns out, today's visit was about $700, with another $2000 due when the surgery is performed, which, due to his schedule, won't be done til the last weekend of the month. When all is said and done, this is a $4000 injury, and your suggestion of soliciting donations suddenly looks like something I wouldn't have so much trouble accepting. But in all honesty, we all have our problems and our sudden, unexpected expenses. The only thing anyone should contribute to is the care and upkeep of the board, not the care and upkeep of a member's dog - even if he is named Coltrane. Anonymous benefactors, on the other hand ....

Does anyone else feel especially old realizing that it seems as though it was only yesterday that BN was celebrating the 60th Anniversary?

I heard the Samba one as a Japanese import and wasn't blown away, but if its a style you enjoy, I'd say go for it. That's The Way It Is is the best Impulse, imo. Teddy Edwards and Ray Brown = superb music. There's another LP of material from the same gig, The Way It Had To Be, but I don't think it was ever issued on CD.

Yeah, he's very entertaining. Not the greatest voice, perhaps, but a good singer in a style that I tend to like. And I really love his attitude. He seems to care less - and be genuinely surprised - that he's even made it this far. Always seems a bit stoned and goofy; a breath of fresh air. Meanwhile, I'm in love with Brooke, who seems so genuine. I can't stand the guy for that mf hair. Brooke does seem genuinely nice and could probably make a nice living if there was such a thing as a "Carole King cover band"; unfortunately I don't think she's capable of performing without a piano, which will ultimately be her undoing. The boy singer is surely the most skilled and polished, so the fact that he is has come this far can't be simply ascribed to his Tiger Beat appearance. Between his talent and his unthreatening-to-the-barely-pubescent sex appeal, I think it would take a major upset to beat him.

Only beginning to? I laugh in your face.

Well, we were pleased when the specialist's office called Monday and moved his appointment up from Friday to this morning, and we assumed he'd have the surgery immediately since they said to bring him in on an empty stomach. Unfortunately, the doctor told us that the x-rays that were taken at the emergency clinic were fine for diagnosing the injury but that for proper treatment he needs very careful measurements, so all they are doing today is another set of x-rays to get those special numbers. So basically, aside from finding out what exactly he injured, the trip to the clinic was like flushing money down the toilet. And we won't even know when he can come back for surgery until we go to get him this afternoon. Did I mention that this specialist's office is a full hour away? What was supposed to be a good day, the start of our boy's recovery, isn't anything of the sort.

Funny how this year's season hasn't provoked any real discussion, but in honor of tonight's special guest, Mariah Cary, here is what must be the funniest "idol" audition of all time (International Division).

thanks, I surely did. Hopefully for your sake Wedge and Shapiro will mount a counter-espionage operation to secure those photos and will make the change, and last night's comeback win by Detroit hasn't set them back on the right path. Before last night, they needed to play .600 ball the rest of the way to reach 92 wins, which will put you in position to contend for the wild card but isn't likely to get the division crown. I'd say the odds still favor Cleveland - if they get Borowski out of there. One thing to consider though - if he swaps places with Betancourt, who is to say that he doesn't give up the crushing home run to Manny in the seventh inning instead?

Had the exact same thoughts. Yankees again looked pretty average last night. And is it just me or was it was starting to get a wee bit frustrating watching Dice K nibble around off the edges of the plate for five innings. Morgan was right -- with a 6-run lead, keep it low and make 'em hit the damn ball. They're not hitting anyways. In the end, I guess it worked, but geez. I'm not sure what else he could have done, but bad move putting Pasada in the game defensively late. Second base was there for the taking after that. Well, with Molina out, Posada was the only option unless they wanted to activate Girardi and make him the player-manager. Apparently the AAA catcher is going to be called up for tonight's game, with Jeter back in the lineup I assume the defensive wiz SS who hit a lot better than anyone expected will be sent down. But I have to wonder where Posada is with his shoulder. It was implied that he'd be ready to catch again yet the trainers told him not to throw down to second. They can't put him back in there against the run-happy Rays, that's for sure. As to Dice-K, I want to hope and assume that the extreme cold was what messed up his command. It was just a bad day right from the start, it seemed that he commanded nothing at all. He was lucky to get through 5, and with Papelbon and Okajima unavailable, the team was very lucky to hold the Yankees in check the rest of the way. Everyone but Timlin pitched well but you have to wonder if Timlin has anything left. Of course, we wondered about that after 2006 and he had an excellent 2007 but jeez. He's faced five batters and gone HR, 2B, HR, 1B, 1B, with the first three guys scoring and an ERA of infinity.

TBS has dropped the Braves. They have a national Sunday afternoon broadcast now, and I believe that they will have the NLCS as well.

They are only looked at as women first if we were to require pics before they are allowed to post. Does Seline think that I, or anyone else, think of her as a woman first before judging her thoughts and ideas? Let alone, does she think that anyone here discounts her opinions because she is female? These complaints are ridiculous. There might be a little more cause for complaint if the board were filled with cheesecake threads or if most of the avatars were near naked bikini babes. As it is, there are a handful of "sexy" avatars and Bright Moments, who until he put up that image of HRC, seemed to continuously incorporate "babe" photos in his signature (seriously, Evan, how the hell does Hillary belong, and how much longer must we suffer? I am tempted to put you on "ignore" just to get her off my screen. )

There is health insurance for pets but we've never purchased it. We always figured that if we can live without it, so can they. But its going to be very expensive for the surgery, too. I figured most people know what an ACL is, even if they don't follow American football or baseball. Or do soccer players not tear ligaments too? I know a little of what he's going through as I had a partial tear about 12 years ago. Even that was very painful. I'm no doctor but in looking at the X-Rays it looks as though it snapped at one end, not in the middle. There's one sort of curlicue along the side of his knee but you can't find the other end of it. This will actually be his second knee surgery - his other knee had a dislocated kneecap. The best doggie orthopedic surgeon in south Florida handled that surgery, hopefully we can get this one scheduled very quickly. When its fixed and he's in the full cast, I expect that he'll be able to get around much easier than he can now. Coltrane and his worried parents thank you all for the well wishes.

Doesn't it say everything about the way things have changed between these two ballclubs that they'd go to this trouble to remove a potential "hex"? I guarantee that if Yankee fans could still be chanting "19-18," the Yankees would say "who cares? We are the YANKEES. There are no curses that can stop us." In fact, you would think given Li'l Boss's obnoxious comments that he would give the order to leave it be, with a statement that no so-called "curse" can stop the Yankees. But no. The biggest choke in history, no crowns in 8 years, another championship parade in Boston, and they are beside themselves making sure that this shirt gets dug up. I tell you, the Yankees aren't the Yankees anymore.

I think that this is the crux of the matter for you, Jim, and I have to ask - do you really know people who "continuously get it right"? I believe there is a psychological term for the tendency to remember all the times that a hunch played out and forget all of the times that it didn't. Continuously, well, only my mother-in-law. She's spooky that way (and others...). LTB & I have been pleading with her for years to go to Vegas, but religious considerations won't let her even contemplate the notion. Sit down with her for a "fun" game at home, though, and you can't beat her, no matter what. She has rabbits in hats like no other... But I also know a few people who, while not "perfect", routinely defy the odds to their benefit. But only a very few. And that goes towards "hunches", which I wonder (note - wonder only) are indicators of a greater, as of yet not understood, logic. Mr. Litwack says no to the logic, but maybe to the validity of the hunches, and for that I thank him for at least being open to the posibility of something other than a rigid "predestination" of sorts. Similarly, I know a few, only a few, people who seem to never get right. They do everything perfectly and yet fail. Them, I never loan money.... Yes, Dan, I know. Yes, you know that, but from the foregoing, would you say that it applies to your Mother-in-Law? I mean, you ascribe to her remarkable talents, "spooky" talents. If you show her the NYT simulator, so that no car is truly at stake, can she beat it in any real way? As in, play a hundred times with the "stay" strategy - does she break 40% or 50%? I think after 100 plays the tendency toward 1/3 - 2/3 will almost always be apparent. So if she could beat it by any significant margin, then I'd start to consider that you may have something.

No, not me - it happened to Coltrane last night. (For those of you unaware of which is which, Coltrane would be the non-Weimaraner in my avatar.) He and Gracie were chasing each other when all of a sudden he came up lame with the loudest cry of pain I've ever heard from him. $1000 at the emergency clinic later and we had the diagnosis. And that's before the surgery itself, though at least we've already paid for blood work and x-rays. And poor Gracie ... she already has separation anxiety and this was the longest they'd ever been apart. And when he got home after midnight, with his leg wrapped up, she was so happy to see him yet so worried when she saw his leg all wrapped up. Now she keeps checking him out head to toe, and giving him little kisses (the kisses usually go 100-1 in the other direction).

On a percent basis, RC's simulation has a win when staying with your original door: 0.3334363 Changing doors: 0.6665637 I'd say that's pretty damn close to 1/3 and 2/3.

I think that this is the crux of the matter for you, Jim, and I have to ask - do you really know people who "continuously get it right"? I believe there is a psychological term for the tendency to remember all the times that a hunch played out and forget all of the times that it didn't. The fact is that your lucky friends and your unlucky friends are going to have the same odds - 1/3 if they stick, 2/3 if they switch.

Yes but my point is that you can't use that information - say, 5 straight cases of switching coming up a winner - to predict the next iteration. The odds of a particular iteration are always the same, even as there can be what we might view as random variation in opposition to those odds. Your example of the switching strategy resulting in: win win lose win win lose win win lose ad infinitum is not a true example of a 67-33 set of odds. These odds are 100, 100, 0, 100, 100, 0 etc. which is why I called it "something else entirely". Now the interesting thing is that yes, the sum of those probabilities is 67-33 but that doesn't describe the actual probability. At least, I don't think so. (For the first time in this thread I've talked myself into something I am not 100% certain of).

This would mean that the odds are not 67-33 but something else entirely Correct - because even if with a strategy of switching, you lose 1/3 of the time.. Let's summarize: The odds are always 67-33 that you will win when you switch. These odds are not effected in any manner by what has happened by other people playing the game. Even when you switch, there is a substantial (1/3) chance that you will lose.