Dan Gould

What is that? Is a good number high or low? Forget it Russell....numbers only tell half the story. No, they tell a very large portion of the story, and numbers like OPS+ tell more than traditional measures like BA, RBI or the like. OPS is On-base percentage plus slugging. OPS+ is a normalized for park and league effects. 100 means you are an average player. Less than 100 is below average, more than 100 is above average (if you see a number for ERA+ fora pitcher, its the same deal - 100 is league average, less is worse than league average, more is better than league average). To put Rodriguez' 147 in perspective, go back to the quoted article: Are any of those players earning 30 million plus? Are any of them likely to ask for it in the near future? Cabrera is the only one clearly in his prime, or entering it, and he will never approach what Boras is asking teams to pay A-Rod. Do numbers/statistics show motivation? Heart of a champion? Determination? Attitude? In game situations like sacrifice bunts or sacrifice flies? Bad calls by the umpires? Momentum? I could go on..... Has A-Rod shown the heart of a champion? Determination? Let me guess - you think that David Epstein is some fantastic player, right? Tell me you do, because he's got tremendous "heart" "determination" and a killer "attitude". So you tell me that Epstein is the kind of guy that every team should dream of having. Go ahead, tell me. Or, tell me the player who you think best shows "heart" and "determination" and "attitude". The rest of your list is game specific events that have nothing to do with statistical analysis. StatHead, right? Dan, if all you relate to is numbers for your evidence of an excellent baseball player then you have just proven my point. Epstein....? That is the hill you choose to die on? Yer killin' me here. Here's a newsflash for ya: Numbers have defined baseball since the dawn of the modern game. We happen to have better numbers today. If you think "heart" and "determination" have some meaning in defining greatness, have it. How about if you say that David Ortiz has the "heart of a champion" because he's had "clutch" hits in the post-season. I'll stick with he's great in the post-season because from 2004-2007, he has an OBP of .500 and slugged over .700. "Heart of a champion" is a cliche with no meaning whatsoever. Does Jeter have the "heart of a champion"? That's complete bullshit. Now, tell me who defines "heart of a champion" and the other cliches you spouted. Tell me. Because it makes me think that you believe there are "great" players who no one looking at statistics would describe as "great". So tell me - who has the "heart of a champion" and "determination"?????

What is that? Is a good number high or low? Forget it Russell....numbers only tell half the story. No, they tell a very large portion of the story, and numbers like OPS+ tell more than traditional measures like BA, RBI or the like. OPS is On-base percentage plus slugging. OPS+ is a normalized for park and league effects. 100 means you are an average player. Less than 100 is below average, more than 100 is above average (if you see a number for ERA+ fora pitcher, its the same deal - 100 is league average, less is worse than league average, more is better than league average). To put Rodriguez' 147 in perspective, go back to the quoted article: Are any of those players earning 30 million plus? Are any of them likely to ask for it in the near future? Cabrera is the only one clearly in his prime, or entering it, and he will never approach what Boras is asking teams to pay A-Rod. Do numbers/statistics show motivation? Heart of a champion? Determination? Attitude? In game situations like sacrifice bunts or sacrifice flies? Bad calls by the umpires? Momentum? I could go on..... Has A-Rod shown the heart of a champion? Determination? Let me guess - you think that David Epstein is some fantastic player, right? Tell me you do, because he's got tremendous "heart" "determination" and a killer "attitude". So you tell me that Epstein is the kind of guy that every team should dream of having. Go ahead, tell me. Or, tell me the player who you think best shows "heart" and "determination" and "attitude". The rest of your list is game specific events that have nothing to do with statistical analysis.

What is that? Is a good number high or low? Forget it Russell....numbers only tell half the story. No, they tell a very large portion of the story, and numbers like OPS+ tell more than traditional measures like BA, RBI or the like. OPS is On-base percentage plus slugging. OPS+ is a normalized for park and league effects. 100 means you are an average player. Less than 100 is below average, more than 100 is above average (if you see a number for ERA+ fora pitcher, its the same deal - 100 is league average, less is worse than league average, more is better than league average). To put Rodriguez' 147 in perspective, go back to the quoted article: Are any of those players earning 30 million plus? Are any of them likely to ask for it in the near future? Cabrera is the only one clearly in his prime, or entering it, and he will never approach what Boras is asking teams to pay A-Rod.

I'm beginning to agree with Kevin but I am not sure what personal info is being gained. Its not like he's asked for your paypal account info or anything like that. You've already given name and address anyway. But that line "at post" is a red flag. Not something an American would say, so if he was shipping from the States, I'd have to say this is bogus and Kevin is right.

Blockbuster, indeed! I know nothing of what they gave up, but despite the reputation that he's lost it ever since Prince Albert launched that pitch a couple of years ago, I believe Lidge remains a top-flight closer. Those hits and strikeouts per 9 IP are outstanding, and I would bet that getting away from Houston will help him mentally to finally turn the page. Putting Myers back in the rotation strengthens it significantly. So long as Lidge doesn't have to face Pujols with the pennant on the line, I think the Phils made a great trade to strengthen the team. Yes, I like putting Myers back in the rotation. Now the money they had earmarked for a FA starter can be used to re-sign J.C. Romero(and hopefully Rowand), who pitched really well the 2nd half of the season. I did a little research on the 3B prospect they gave up. He struck out 157 times in Double A ball last year. I can't see that number going down as he moves up. And apparently he has no glove. So for a one year rental they didn't give up too much. Plus keep in mind that Myers is a better starter than the FA options that are out there. JC Romero and Flash will make decent setup men for Lidge. Depending on what the Mets do, I think this makes the Phils even stronger contenders.

Fine. Before your boy breaks the bank, make sure he reads this article about how to deal with Boras and the claims he will make: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/battling-boras/

Is there something in particular that makes you think that, Kevin? I'd believe it if the guy started selling a completely different type of merchandise, or if his messages to sellers went from average US literacy level to something much lower, but it seems equally likely that for whatever reason, he stopped holding up his end of things.

Blockbuster, indeed! I know nothing of what they gave up, but despite the reputation that he's lost it ever since Prince Albert launched that pitch a couple of years ago, I believe Lidge remains a top-flight closer. Those hits and strikeouts per 9 IP are outstanding, and I would bet that getting away from Houston will help him mentally to finally turn the page. Putting Myers back in the rotation strengthens it significantly. So long as Lidge doesn't have to face Pujols with the pennant on the line, I think the Phils made a great trade to strengthen the team.

The fact that tennis is in the middle of a "throwing matches" controversy and, while I haven't paid enough attention to be sure, I believe that some of the players under suspicion are Russian or threw matches to Russian players, makes it easier to believe that something like this might have happened. Who knows, maybe some Russian gamblers couldn't get him to throw a Davis Cup tie, or figured that he wouldn't, and did the next best thing.

My title used to be Manager of Web Publishing so I would say "yes".

Woops - not only has his rating gone down, but he's not a registered user anymore, either. What does it take to be an unregistered user? Did they suspend his account or is he quitting it, because his feedback went downhill so fast?

I was thinking about the way it would help Schilling and Dice, I hadn't even considered the way it would reduce the strain on the Lester and Buchholz. I hope Theo, Tito and Farrell give this one a lot of thought. I don't see why you are surprised or call this "savvy". There was never a doubt that arbitration would be offered once A-Rod opted out. Its the only way to get the draft pick compensation on a Type A free agent. The only way A-Rod accepts is if he decides to fire Boras, and then throw himself on the ground in front of the Steinbrenners, sobbing "mea culpa, I'll play for a year to prove how much I really do want to be a Yankee!"

So, I don't want to take away from Fitch, the flight crew needed all the help they could to control the plane and he helped a great deal. But it sounds like because he was the source for the TV show, the impression might have been given that he was the sole reason that there were survivors. I think its fair to say that the entire flight crew, led by the Captain, had a big part in that also. Quite so; my memory of the episode is probably not 100%. I recommend it though. Watching the clip, you think "if only" because it looks like they might make it down in one piece but reading the Captain's narrative, you realize how lucky they were. They started one of the downward cycles they were dealing with for the last forty minutes of the flight and that's why they hit when they did - and its amazing to think that a large portion of the plane stayed intact when you read that normal landing speed is 140 knots and they were flying at 210, and normal rate of ascent is 300 feet a minute and they were at nearly 2000!

Wait a sec - flu like cooties, yet you've also been exercising on the drop 12 get a Mosaic plan? I think I see your problem. The bottom line here is that I am offering top level prospects, and more of them, to avoid giving up the very best prospects in the system. I'm not offering Florida a rip-off deal, I am compensating for the fact that our best are off the table. No one should sneeze at any of the prospects I listed (Lester, Masterson, Hansen, Bowden) because they are all upper-level, close to or near-established Major League talent (in the case of Lester). Hansen is the only who has failed in the Show, and he's still only 23 and showed flashes of the nasty slider last year.

Yeah, but this was more of a salary dump since we had to take Lowell to get it done. I think Lester is definitely the number two starter behind Buchholz, and that is mainly because of Buchholz no-hitter. I know I said that Clay has a higher ceiling but I am not at all sure that the best of Jon Lester has really been seen. He had a mid-90s fastball coming up, but that's never been seen in his time in the majors. That and a little more command/confidence in his stuff, and I think Lester could definitely be a solid second starter or excellent number three.

Don't click the link, CT!

So, I don't want to take away from Fitch, the flight crew needed all the help they could to control the plane and he helped a great deal. But it sounds like because he was the source for the TV show, the impression might have been given that he was the sole reason that there were survivors. I think its fair to say that the entire flight crew, led by the Captain, had a big part in that also. Is that Iowa crash footage available on line? Sounds incredible that someone managed to capture it on film. I'm surprised if you've never seen it, it was seen so much back when it happened. I found this link through Wikipedia: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=52...mp;q=flight+232

I've never seen the show, Bruce, but I remember well that crash in Iowa, caught by a local TV news camera. I find it a little odd though that the passenger who helped out in the cockpit is getting all of the credit. What happened was that a fan in the center (tail) engine exploded, and ripped through the hydraulics. The pilot varied power to the right and left engines in order to steer the plane, and while I knew that a passenger had assisted on the flight deck, I don't recall any reports or TV shows that give Fitch the designation of ultimate hero of the flight. The pilot has gotten all of the accolades (not to imply Fitch doesn't deserve some) and even joked with the ATC when he was told that he had clearance for Runway 22 by saying, "oh, you want to be particular about it and make it a specific runway" or something like that. Also, of 296 passengers and crew, 184 lived, a much greater proportion than you remembered. Let me just say at this point that in searching for info, I found this web page which has a very informative article written by the captain about what allowed them to get the aircraft down without killing everyone on board. His description of Fitch's contributions go like this: So, I don't want to take away from Fitch, the flight crew needed all the help they could to control the plane and he helped a great deal. But it sounds like because he was the source for the TV show, the impression might have been given that he was the sole reason that there were survivors. I think its fair to say that the entire flight crew, led by the Captain, had a big part in that also.

Patrick, I don't think MLB can do anything to Byrd, so picking up his option made sense. I'm still having a hard time though believing his medical claim if in fact his prescription was written by a Florida dentist who ultimately had his license taken away by the state. But since none of it was subject to sanctions at the time, I don't think Bud can or will do anything. Borowski is another matter though. Didn't he have a two year deal with the Phils originally, but he failed his physical - because it made the doctors think his arm would blow up before the contract was over - and then he signed with the Tribe? So if the physical was so bad a year ago, why are they bringing him back for another year? I agree that they have to slide him out of the closer role. Betancourt is the man, Borowski shouldn't pitch past the seventh inning under any circumstances. As for Manny, I was thinking more in terms of leading by example. Although Baseball Reference doesn't see it that way, to me Cabrera is a young Manny, with the same God-given ability to hit. But Manny works his butt off at it, and from what I hear, Cabrera not so much. But people like Papi and Lowell and Tek are the kind of veterans who I think would make him see what it takes for long-term success in the league and keep after him. I have no idea what the answer is on the weight problem though. But speaking of, get this: Big Schill proposed the weight clause in his contract! He apparently really wanted to show that he understood how he had messed up last off-season and was ready to put in the time and effort to be ready for the season this time. In fact, the Globe is reporting that the weight clauses are such that they will not be easy to meet, so it sounds like his salary will really depend on how many innings over 130 he pitches. And last but not least: Congratulations YOOOOUUUKKKK! He set the AL record for consecutive errorless games at first base and was awarded with his first Gold Glove. This is what I was hoping for when Teixeira left Texas.

Shula and every member of that team has acted like a bunch of conceited assholes when it comes to their "record" and it is a total bunch of bullshit to assert that there must be an "asterisk" because of "spygate". Were the Pats going to lose to the Jets in that game regardless? And more importantly, any "spying" ended with that game. An asterisk would be appropriate if it had been discovered later in the year. Regardless, I am enjoying the fact that the Pats are taking a "F-You" approach to the season, running up scores and destroying opponents. You want to bitch about "spygate" go ahead. They are going to run the table, in an era when going undefeated is a helluva lot harder than it was in 1972.

Yes, I did see this one a couple of years ago. It was nuts! Scary to think that a simple piece of tape can bring down a jet And it wasn't the first time! Eight months earlier the same thing happened to another 757, and while Boeing had sent out instructions, AeroPeru hadn't adopted them yet. So tape brought down two different jets.

SI is reporting that the Marlins are officially accepting offers on Miguel Cabrera, which brings up an interesting question for my fellow Hot Stove enthusiasts: Say you have a group of highly regarded prospects/young players. Who are you more willing to give them up for, Johan Santana or Miguel Cabrera? Bear in mind that Santana is one year from free agency, Cabrera is two years. I am not sure which I'd choose, but since we know that Cabrera is available, I think the Red Sox should look seriously into what it might take. I know that means setting Lowell free, but you don't get a shot very often at a hitter whose number one comparable through age 24 is Hank Freakin' Aaron ! Trading for Cabrera would be like re-acquiring Manny just as Manny 1.0 is winding down. Now, there are lots of negatives: Bad defense Bad attitude too much in love with the post-game buffet table But the defense could certainly be minimized by moving him to first base and switching Youkilis to 3B. Then in three years or so when Papi's body is worn out ( we know how his physical type tends to have a swift decline phase) and Cabrera is the size of Cecil Fielder, you move him to DH. I also have to wonder whether coming to Boston and being exposed to Papi and Manny wouldn't cure him of his attitude problems in a hurry. Fact is, in Florida he has no veterans to look up to or learn from. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets his act together placed in that clubhouse. So who to give up? In my opinion, only Ellsbury and Buchholz should be off limits. Probably Pedroia too. Lester should be the centerpiece of such a trade - I am firmly of the opinion that Buchholz ceiling far eclipses Lester's. Hansen, Bowden, Masterson, Coco, Tavarez (the last two give them affordable veterans to use now) and Lester. Pick four. Another option is to keep Mikey and trade Youk, who is a bit old for a second year player and has shown a disturbing tendency to regress badly in the second half of a season. I'm not sure that the lineup would suffer that much with Ellsbury leading off and Pedroia batting second. That steady diet of fastballs would keep Pedroia hitting .300 for a long time to come. I guess that's my answer to the original question: If I'm Theo, I trade for Cabrera first, because if he is signed long-term, he fills an organizational need - great power bat - that is more dire than the organizational need that Santana fills. Not to mention that Santana could be a rental anyway, and a shorter-term one at that. I'll say this though: I'm glad that the Yankees are so committed to their youth program, because the old Yankees would make a trade for Cabrera in an instant, and they'd get A-Rod level production at third without missing a beat.

And Buster Olney is reporting that the deal is done, with Schill agreeing to a much lower guarantee - eight million - to stay in Boston. I guess the hometown discount lives, as he surely could have gotten his 13 million with a vesting option for a second year elsewhere. The Globe is reporting that two million in incentives are based on a weight clause. I like that part a lot! Another three million in performance incentives, based on innings pitched if the AP has it right. Apparently some people in the league think that Schilling can re-gain some speed on his fastball if he's in better shape, I can't imagine why though. I guess we will definitely be finding out if his Frank Tanana stuff can get it done in the AL East over a full season.