2006-2007 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

Dan,

I bet you'll whistle a different tune if The Rocket comes along for the ride. At this point, I'd say this is more than idle speculation. Assuming The Unit's back surgery is successful and he's better than he has been as a result (I know...a big assumption) that would make for a fairly formitable starting rotation.

Up over and out.

I will whistle a different tune if Clemens joins Pettite. It would only confirm my utter contempt for his mercenary ways.

Regardless, I think its not a big, but a huge assumption that RJ will be take five years off of his age with this surgery. The much greater likelihood is that it allows him to return to his 4.7 + ERA ways, with a steady stream of lame outings befitting a 43 year old, punctuated by a handful of stellar performances befitting a hall of famer. Remember that his injury occured late in the year. Unless its been festering all this time and he was too stupid to get it taken care of sooner.

In the meantime, I'm more worried about the Dice Man and whether or not a deal will be struck by Thursday night. If it gets done, bring on Pettite, take Clemens too. We'll still be the superior rotation. If it doesn't get done, you can bet that they will take even 30 million of that posting fee and offer it to Clemens.

Edited December 9, 2006 by Dan Gould

[Dan Gould]

One other thing:

I'm more concerned with the closer position right now than whether or not Clemens follows Pettite like a dog chasing his bitch. They couldn't make a Manny trade that would net them a closer, and now they've lost Dotel to the Royals and apparently other teams are stepping up for Gagne, too, and it is unlikely they'll sign him. That would exhaust the free agent options and leave them having to make a trade. Chad Cordero is one target, but Wily Mo won't get that done; the Nats want young pitchers, too. On the other hand, Texas needs a CF, so maybe the Sox dangle Coco for that Japanese guy they used last year. I know his numbers were good overall, I'm not sure if they came with extreme agitation and angst, though. Sending Coco away would put Wily Mo in the lineup everyday, the question would be CF or RF. Personally I think he has better instincts in CF, and Drew can certainly handle RF better. That's the way I would go. But it will all depend on whether Texas will part with the closer. Probably depend on whether they win Gagne, but at the same time, whoever gets him has no guarantee he's healthy enough to dominate again. So it would be damn hard to make that trade, unless it gets done in spring training.

[Dan Gould]

But I seriously doubt we will see the Pettite of old. He was pretty bad in the NL last year, and has battled injuries, too.

Pettitte had wicked splits last year.

--------------- IP--- H--K/BB--ERA--WHIP-BA

Pre All-Star 121 150 92/43 5.28 1.60 .309

Post All-Star 93.1 88 86/27 2.80 1.23 .249

They're hoping & paying for the Pettitte of the 2nd half.

this is certainly true, but there's an interesting note in the piece in New York Newsday:

Pettitte insisted with a straight face that he was ready to end his career at 34. That was how he felt back in spring training, and the pain he felt in his left elbow late in the season reinforced his thoughts.

So in other words, as he was posting such great stats, his elbow was killing him. The Yanks better hope he can make it out there 30 times next season, as well as perform as he did in the second half facing weak NL lineups.

[Dave James]

From Peter Gammons:

Of course it helps to have the Yankees' revenues to take on Bobby Abreu's $15 million salary when the Phillies want him out of town and pay Andy Pettitte $16 million off a 14-13, 4.20 ERA season.

Andy Pettitte gives the Yankees three healthy, reliable starters along with Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina.

Though Yankee Stadium in the late 1980's was about the last place this side of a West Virginia coal mine that anyone wanted to play, what Gene Michael and Buck Showalter turned around and Brian Cashman and Joe Torre have cultivated is a place players want to go to and win.

Oh, winning is part of it, and so is never having to argue over 10 bucks. But Torre is a man players implicitly trust and respect, and when the Brothers Hendricks couldn't make a deal in Pettitte's hometown with Drayton McLane, it didn't take 72 hours for Pettitte to go home -- no longer than it did for Johnny Damon to make an emergency landing in New York last season.

Look at the Yankees' offseason. When they were bounced out of the playoffs by the Tigers and George Steinbrenner was so outraged that he was ready to fire Torre, he was returned to rational earth with this thought: "The Tigers thought they had to have home-field advantage and lost it by being swept by the Royals the final week of the season. Would you have fired Jim Leyland?" Two decades ago, Torre would have been gone.

Cashman, who with president Steve Swindal got the organization refocused on development (ask their scouting people what it's like in the new Cashman World), not only refused to trade off Philip Hughes and gave Melky Cabrera a chance, but has also moved Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright for four young pitchers, two of whom, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan, could be major parts in the second half of the 2007 season. He also signed Kei Igawa for depth and inventory.

Pettite may not be the dominant top-of-the-rotation guy he once was, but as he turns 35 in June he gives the Yankees a third proven starter with Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina. Mussina was fourth in the AL in quality starts with 23; Wang sixth with 20; Pettite had 20 in Houston -- albeit far from the AL East. Now there is less pressure on Randy Johnson to rush back and no pressure as they spend half the season figuring out who will be the 4-5 starterts down the stretch between Carl Pavano, Igawa and Hughes. Now Scott Proctor can remain in the bullpen.

Then there's the whole Roger Clemens issue. If he decides to leave Houston, he doesn't need a video to sway him -- Torre is good enough.

Pettite is a great signing on a one-year deal, even with the player option for 2008, and at the end of the season Johnson, Pavano, Jorge Posada and Abreu come off the books as Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones come onto the market. The next year, they can have Mark Teixeira at first base in their new stadium.

The Yankees have won the AL East nine straight years, and since Cashman gained control last fall, they are in better shape to make a run at the Braves' incredible record than they have been in a couple of (baseball) generations. I was there when Rick Rhoden DHed, remember the "Mr. May" line and the releases from "Ken Clay spit the bit" to the apology for losing the playoffs.

It's very different, now, and a lot more difficult for the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles.

Red Sox get offensive

The team the Red Sox should put in the field in 2007 is a far cry from the one that was 11th in the league in runs after the All-Star break. If, as expected, Manny Ramirez returns, a lineup of Julio Lugo, either Kevin Youkilis or Coco Crisp, David Ortiz and Ramirez could make J.D. Drew a 125 RBI guy, particularly with his left-center field power in Fenway. More important, it will be a lot easier for Drew to adapt to Boston as a complement to than a replacement for Manny.

Time is winding down for the Red Sox to strike a deal with Daisuke Matsuzaka.

But the Red Sox Have two major unresolved issues -- signing Daisuke Matsuzaka and finding a closer. And getting Matsuzaka may be more difficult than finding a closer.

1. Matsuzaka. Scott Boras insists he does not have to bring the 26-year-old right-hander to Boston this week. Boras claims that he is "arguably one of the five best starting pitchers in the game and should be paid accordingly, especially coming off of this market." In Boras's mind, that fair market price is $20 million, not that he's asking for it because of the posting system. But Boras also claims that Matsuzaka can get $15-18 million pitching in Japan, that Seibu can get a lot more than $51.1 million next year and that Boston can write off most of the posting costs with marketing and the exclusion of the luxury tax. While Boras remains adament in asking for close to a Jason Schmidt average annual value, Red Sox officials feel that the superagent prefers to keep Matsuzaka in Japan for two more years, then get $140 million for seven years after 2008.

Boston essentially needs to get the Matsuzaka agreement done by Tuesday night so they can get him in Wednesday for a physical prior to the Thursday deadllne. One GM Friday said "it would be a shame for Matsuzaka and baseball to hold him out to try to force a change in the posting system." Boras has a very strong relationship with Theo Epstein, but he is willing to hold out players when necessary, such as Boston's current catcher and right fielder.

Will it get done? No one knows. But one can assume that the Red Sox are a far better team with Matsuzaka than without him, although he has never thrown a pitch in the AL East.

2. Closer. The Red Sox would not guarantee Eric Gagne 60 percent of his $10 million 2006 salary because of the fear that there's as much chance that he's Rob Dibble as he is Trevor Hoffman. Washington asked for Craig Hansen and Clay Bucholtz for Chad Cordero, which isn't happening. Essentially, there's nothing on the market except for Tony Armas, which has been discussed, so if spring training were to open Monday, 28-year-old Devern Hansack, the Nicarauguan veteran who threw a five inning no-hitter the last day of the season, would be the first choice as closer.

The Red Sox believe that if and when Hansen remembers that his 95-98 mph four-seamer is a complementary, hittable pitch, goes back to his 92-95 mph sinker and regains consistency with his Brad Lidge slider, then he can eventually close. So can Bryce Cox, their third-round pick out of Rice who blew through the system.

But they need a veteran or two to get them to midseason, and thus far have had no luck trying to acquire Derrick Turnbow, Cordero, Jesse Crain, Chad Qualls, Cameron Loe, et al.

Edited December 10, 2006 by Dave James

[BERIGAN]

Dan, why don't you guys make some kind of effort to get Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates? He was 24 for 24 as a closer. 2.14 ERA. 1.47 after the All star break. He's a lefty, who throws hard. Would you guys fear a lefty closer? The Braves nearly had him for Adam LaRoche, but the deal fell thru. We almost went from the worst bullpen in the NL to the best this year(We did get Soriano from Seattle)

[Dan Gould]

Dan, why don't you guys make some kind of effort to get Mike Gonzalez from the Pirates? He was 24 for 24 as a closer. 2.14 ERA. 1.47 after the All star break. He's a lefty, who throws hard. Would you guys fear a lefty closer? The Braves nearly had him for Adam LaRoche, but the deal fell thru. We almost went from the worst bullpen in the NL to the best this year(We did get Soriano from Seattle)

I'm pretty sure they've inquired about the Pirate dude. And that Soriano acquisition was outstanding. He can easily step in for Wickman if he starts biting the big one again; otherwise, he's an outstanding setup man.

[Chalupa]

He lost 16 games this past season.

His ERA for the season was 6.02.

He was left off the post-season roster by the Cardinals.

His name is Jason Marquis and the Cubs just signed him for $21 million for 3 years.

I going to give my 2 year old son a baseball and glove for Christmas.

[BERIGAN]

He lost 16 games this past season.

His ERA for the season was 6.02.

He was left off the post-season roster by the Cardinals.

His name is Jason Marquis and the Cubs just signed him for $21 million for 3 years.

I going to give my 2 year old son a baseball and glove for Christmas.

I bet your 2 year old can throw harder as well! To kinda, sorta, umm, defend Jason, LaRussa left him out twice to get creamed to save the ol' bullpen. I think he gave up 12 runs twice. Really not fair to do that to anyone, that's what you have the minors for. Send the 5th outfielder down for a few days, and bring someone up. Someone (Perhaps on one of the espn blogs?) mentioned those 2 games, and by taking them away, his e.r.a. is then "only" low 5's.

Still, makes no sense to give him 3 years. I bet I could give up only 6 runs per 9 innings. I had a pretty good hook,(before I had wrist surgery) Of course, I am 39 and have chronic back trouble. But, I am a lefty...hmmm...

Edited December 11, 2006 by BERIGAN

[Dan Gould]

An interesting column on Foxsports.com from their main guy - he basically says that Pettite was quite poor last year, despite his second half splits, is returning to pitch against a killer offensive division, and has serious health question marks. A nice antidote to the usual "brillian Cashman move" commentary.

Also an interesting piece up on ESPN.com from a sportswriter in Japan. He's basically certain that Matz will sign on the dotted line, and bases that on just how important Dice Man is too important to his countrymen to come back now. He gives particular weight to the fact that his team has already announced what they'll do with the 51 million - X amount for salaries, and an enormous percentage for various improvements to the stadium. Imagine how the fans will feel if they lose out on all that, because Boras tells him that he should hold out for more $$.

I do believe its going to come down to whether or not Matz tells Boras to get a deal done, I want to pitch in the majors NOW, or if Boras convinces him the Red Sox aren't offering nearly enough, and that he should challenge the posting system rather than accept their offer. My guess is 40% chance he signs, and if he doesn't, 100% chance Boras is fired before he tries again.

[BERIGAN]

Dan, so why does it still seem like Boras is in the driver's seat? At least it sounds like that from Theo, et al, and I just don't get it!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2694660

[Dan Gould]

Dan, so why does it still seem like Boras is in the driver's seat? At least it sounds like that from Theo, et al, and I just don't get it!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2694660

You got me, Conrad. Either Boras isn't telling his client the truth, or his client is willing is to wait up to two more years to get every last dollar possible. But the bottom line is that every team who bid would have taken the same approach as the Red Sox - the posting bid represents a portion of the contractual value of the player - they are bidding on the right to have him under contractual control precisely because he isn't a free agent - so Boras would have these very same issues.

But if he thinks that Matz gets a 100 million dollar contract separate from the posting fee, they might as well quit right now because that will never fly. And if Matz thinks that is what is he should hold out for, instead of taking a decent offer so he can compete in the majors, than I sincerely hope that he has to wait until 2008 to be a completely free agent, and that his arm falls off before then.

[Chalupa]

Dan, so why does it still seem like Boras is in the driver's seat? At least it sounds like that from Theo, et al, and I just don't get it!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2694660

You got me, Conrad. Either Boras isn't telling his client the truth, or his client is willing is to wait up to two more years to get every last dollar possible. But the bottom line is that every team who bid would have taken the same approach as the Red Sox - the posting bid represents a portion of the contractual value of the player - they are bidding on the right to have him under contractual control precisely because he isn't a free agent - so Boras would have these very same issues.

But if he thinks that Matz gets a 100 million dollar contract separate from the posting fee, they might as well

quit right now because that will never fly. And if Matz thinks that is what is he should hold out for, instead of taking a decent offer so he can compete in the majors, than I sincerely hope that he has to wait until 2008 to be a completely free agent, and that his arm falls off before then.

I think Boras still has the upper hand because what do the Red Sox do if they don't sign Matsuzaka??? Go after Zito?? That will drive up Zito's price, which is already in $70 million range. They would probably being paying Zito close to what Boras is asking for what we assume to be a better, younger pitcher. Either way they are gonna have to spend $100M. I mean their hands are tied now - all of the good pitchers are gone. They will have to overpay for Zito or try and swing a deal for a pitcher. Manny as trade bait?? They tried that already.

What I want to know is how is Theo going to spin this if he fails to sign Matsuzaka?? They can't use the,"They were asking for too much money", excuse when The Royals are showing Meche the money. The Royals! With the kind of money that is being thrown around this year on marginal pitching(cough, Marquis, cough) the Sox have to come up big or they can kiss that Asian market(and the playoffs) goodbye. The fact is Theo underestimated the FA market(to be fair I don't think anyone thought the market would explode like it did this off season) and now he has to pay. A lot.

[Dan Gould]

Dan, so why does it still seem like Boras is in the driver's seat? At least it sounds like that from Theo, et al, and I just don't get it!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2694660

You got me, Conrad. Either Boras isn't telling his client the truth, or his client is willing is to wait up to two more years to get every last dollar possible. But the bottom line is that every team who bid would have taken the same approach as the Red Sox - the posting bid represents a portion of the contractual value of the player - they are bidding on the right to have him under contractual control precisely because he isn't a free agent - so Boras would have these very same issues.

But if he thinks that Matz gets a 100 million dollar contract separate from the posting fee, they might as well

quit right now because that will never fly. And if Matz thinks that is what is he should hold out for, instead of taking a decent offer so he can compete in the majors, than I sincerely hope that he has to wait until 2008 to be a completely free agent, and that his arm falls off before then.

I think Boras still has the upper hand because what do the Red Sox do if they don't sign Matsuzaka??? Go after Zito?? That will drive up Zito's price, which is already in $70 million range. They would probably being paying Zito close to what Boras is asking for what we assume to be a better, younger pitcher. Either way they are gonna have to spend $100M. I mean their hands are tied now - all of the good pitchers are gone. They will have to overpay for Zito or try and swing a deal for a pitcher. Manny as trade bait?? They tried that already.

What I want to know is how is Theo going to spin this if he fails to sign Matsuzaka?? They can't use the,"They were asking for too much money", excuse when The Royals are showing Meche the money. The Royals! With the kind of money that is being thrown around this year on marginal pitching(cough, Marquis, cough) the Sox have to come up big or they can kiss that Asian market(and the playoffs) goodbye. The fact is Theo underestimated the FA market(to be fair I don't think anyone thought the market would explode like it did this off season) and now he has to pay. A lot.

I have to respectfully disagree, on a number of points.

First off, Boras doesn't have leverage, if in fact his client is interested in playing in the Majors now. If he is willing to wait up to two more years, suffer the embarassment of returning to a team that has already planned and announced how it will spend the posting fee, and suffer the additional cultural embarrassment of refusing a sizeable offer because his agent insisted on a gigantic offer, then Boras has leverage. But as one GM said last week, what does he have? A "mystery nation" who is bidding on his client?

The FA market has exploded, yes. But Matz is not a free agent. Every team in the bidding considered it an investment on controlling his rights for six years prior to free agency. Earlier in this nutty season, I read that between signing costs, development costs, and escalating salaries through arbitration, developing a topnotch player costs something like 30-40 million dollars. That's how some teams went about determining their bid amount. The Red Sox wanted to be sure, so they bid significantly in excess of that figure. To say that it should not impact the amount a posted player is offered in salary is to live in fantasy land.

You're a little out of date on Zito. He's being offered upwards of 100 million, not 70 million. But remember - when Boras says that his client is worth 100 million dollars, he says that is independent of the posting fee. He is saying that the Red Sox should spend 150 million dollars to secure his services, and that is completely insane and will never happen.

Theo absolutely can spin this as "they asked for too much money" because anyone can see what Boras is asking for is outrageous. The rules are the rules: Matz isn't a free agent. Matz doesn't have any track record in the Major Leagues. Maybe he does get 120 million dollars as a totally free agent in 2008. But it is 2006. If he wants to return to Japan as an embarassment who demanded too much money, he can do it. When it comes out that the Sox offered 10-12 million a year, no one will accuse them of negotiating in bad faith or not being committed to a fair offer. At that point, while it will be difficult to make the impact they want to in Japan, it will not be as impossible as you suggest.

Lastly, they will not go after Zito. The money saved will go in a nice little package for Roger Clemens, and we will find out if he wants to follow his bitch to New York or his heart to Boston. I expect he'll go for his bitch in the end ... but the Red Sox will deal with it in the end.

You are probably right that they can kiss the playoffs goodbye, especially if both Matz and Clemens spurn their advances.

I do however believe that this is the darkness before the dawn. Matz wants to play. He doesn't want to return, and deal with all that will entail. A deal will get done, and Matz will be on the plane sometime Wednesday (I don't think they'll necessarily leave early Wednesday morning).

And one last thing: if Boras thinks that he can convince his client that it is in his best interests to take a stand and try to break out of the posting system by buying his way out, they are both fools who deserve each other. The simple fact is that if Boras "buys" Matz' freedom to be a true free agent, it will mean the end of Japanese baseball. Every star will never stick around; they will simply buy their freedom to pursue a major league career, and Japanese baseball will ultimately cease to exist, except as a feeder system to America.

[Matthew]

I'm mighty pissed-off that the Mariners have done nothing this winter, plus, it looks like Felix Hernandez is just sitting around getting fat. Not a good feeling for 2007.

[Dan Gould]

I'm mighty pissed-off that the Mariners have done nothing this winter, plus, it looks like Felix Hernandez is just sitting around getting fat. Not a good feeling for 2007.

What are you talking about? Didn't they just sign a 35 year old NL pitcher?

Meanwhile, I am now resigned to the fact that Boras is holding his client out and nothing will be done. That's obvious after:

A) the Red Sox were not allowed to meet with Matsuzaka to try to communicate that they do indeed want him

B) the Globe is reporting that the Red Sox contingent has left Boras' office; that there has been "no progress" (but that talks may continue until they get on Henry's plane tomorrow).

I still want to see how Matsuzaka explains this to his countrymen, his teammates, and his team. "My agent said I shouldn't accept anything less than 18 million a year." yeah, that will really fly, when not accepting 10 or 11 means you don't go to the Majors to represent your country, your team loses out on 51 million.

That's why I believe Boras is not telling his client the truth and that is he intent on holding him out and then trying to destroy the Posting system afterwards. And I will laugh my ass off when that effort fails. And if Boras is still the agent a year from now, there is no way that there will be a 51 million dollar bid again from anyone. What is the point? You know going in that any salary has to be independent of the fee, and no team can do what they want. I don't even think the Yanks would pay a 50 million dollar fee and then offer 120 million dollars salary.

[Quincy]

When Gil Meche gets 55 mil for 5 from the ROYALS the math changes. What happened to the "darkest before the dawn" feelings? There's still time yet, isn't there? Guess we'll find out. The worst that happens is that the 2nd filthy richest team in baseball doesn't get the unproven MLB gyroball plus you kept him from being a Yankee. I think that may have been John Henry's modus after all, that a 50 million block is cheaper than signing the s.o.b.

As far as the M's, they did pick up head case OF Jose Guillen. A nice wild roll of the dice I think, though the clubhouse chemistry goes further cuckoo.

[BERIGAN]

Well, Marcus Giles had an off season(.261) after being forced into being a leadoff hitter(Which he ain't!) still played great defense as usual at 2nd base. But, we(Atlanta) with only 4.8 million citizens-at least, are a teeny, tiny small market town. So, instead of offering him arbitration and risking paying him 6 Million, we non-tendered him. No one would trade for him, knowing that we would just cut him loose rather than pay him. Even though the fans knew it was coming, not too happy about it, to say the least. We couldn't even keep Daryle Ward as a pinch hitter, and he really wanted to play for us. Sigh....

[BERIGAN]

I'm mighty pissed-off that the Mariners have done nothing this winter, plus, it looks like Felix Hernandez is just sitting around getting fat. Not a good feeling for 2007.

Matthew, believe it or not HoRam, as he was called in Atlanta, has good stuff. When he is on, he looks like the next Tom Glavine. But, he is forever injured. If he is healty next year, he will win 12-15 games, honest! And as for Soriano, we heard reports that he only is hitting 91 in winter ball.....

[Dan Gould]

Well the news is interesting out of Boston today:

The Sox got their face-to-face meeting

Talks have not broken down, but they are pinkie-swearing that when they get on the plane later this morning, that is it, no more negotiating.

Reportedly, the latest offer was 8 mil for six years and Matz wants 11 mill for six years. This definitely surprises me, as I figured that they'd be over ten million and arguing between 10-11 mil vs 14-15. They've managed to move mid-field under 10 million, I think that's a big success. They should just split the difference at 9 or 9.5 and get it done.

I guess we'll see how everyone looks at it in the light of day. You'd think, though, that after losing Damon over 3 million a year and seeing how that worked out, they wouldn't risk losing their one chance with this guy over the same amount.

[Dave James]

Not to change the subject, but would someone explain to me why the Red Sox are so insistant on moving Jonathan Papelbon into the starting rotation? Now that Gagne has signed with Texas and Foulke appears to be headed elsewhere, why when you have a lights out closer would you not keep him in that role? Does this reflect some sort of gentlemen's agreement between Papelbon and the Sox as to his future, i.e. I'll close for a year and then I'm a starter?

Up over and out.

[Aggie87]

I don't keep up with my Astros too much during the offseason, but know that they lost Pettite, and have apparently picked up both Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings. Not sure about Lee or Jennings too much - do they bring anything worthwhile to the table? One write up about lee said he's overweight. Jennings' stats didn't impress me much, but he is the winningest Rockie ever or something, for what that's worth.

[Matthew]

I'm mighty pissed-off that the Mariners have done nothing this winter, plus, it looks like Felix Hernandez is just sitting around getting fat. Not a good feeling for 2007.

Matthew, believe it or not HoRam, as he was called in Atlanta, has good stuff. When he is on, he looks like the next Tom Glavine. But, he is forever injured. If he is healty next year, he will win 12-15 games, honest! And as for Soriano, we heard reports that he only is hitting 91 in winter ball.....

I'm always leery of pitchers who are "forever injured," they never seem to get well enough to pitch a full year. Case in point: Dan Driefort.

[Dan Gould]

Not to change the subject, but would someone explain to me why the Red Sox are so insistant on moving Jonathan Papelbon into the starting rotation? Now that Gagne has signed with Texas and Foulke appears to be headed elsewhere, why when you have a lights out closer would you not keep him in that role? Does this reflect some sort of gentlemen's agreement between Papelbon and the Sox as to his future, i.e. I'll close for a year and then I'm a starter?

Up over and out.

Dave,

it all comes back to the injury he suffered in September. The medical staff feels that a structured, predictable throwing program - starting every fifth day, bullpen work in between - is safer for his long-term health. Personally, I think that with better management of his workload, he could remain a lights out closer and not risk his health. I remember Francona was quoted sometime how so and so was unavailable, but Papelbon will be. He basically said "he's young, he can take it". Now look what that got you. The fact is that Francona used him three days in a row many times and sometimes threatened a fourth. If they sign Dice (or Clemens) and can't fill the closer role in a trade, I think they should consider putting Paps back there for another year. It simply means that you moderate his work load, give him days off and avoid three days in a row appearances. It basically means that you have someone else you can trust to close, and you use him when necessary to keep Paps healthy. Then you can revisit the question next year, when Schilling is gone, maybe Wakefield too, and you need someone in the rotation. Also by then there should be help from the minors - Bryce Cox has looked to be the closer of the future, and of course Craig Hansen was supposed to be doing it already. Either one of them should step up by 2008 and do the job.

I don't keep up with my Astros too much during the offseason, but know that they lost Pettite, and have apparently picked up both Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings. Not sure about Lee or Jennings too much - do they bring anything worthwhile to the table? One write up about lee said he's overweight. Jennings' stats didn't impress me much, but he is the winningest Rockie ever or something, for what that's worth.

Jennings is one of those young guys that a lot of teams salivate over because he's decent, and affordable. I think he has the potential to be a long-term replacement for Pettite and that it was a good pick up. Carlos Lee swings the big bat and will definitely help offensively, but I do think the 100 million dollars was highly excessive given his age, the length of the deal, and as you touched on, his weight issues. In fact, his defensive is crappy to begin with, so an NL team signing him to such a lengthy contract is highly questionable. He's a guy that will help the first couple of years but you'll be desperate to rid yourself of him by the middle of his deal. Of course, at that point, with the rate of salary inflation, he might still be easily moveable to an AL team so he can DH.

[Big Al]

The market is moving for Eric Gagne, with a contract possibly being signed this week.

The Globe seems to think that the Red Sox have an edge, by planning to name him the closer. If he's healthy, he can be as effective as anyone ever has been ... but it kind of concerns me that the money is being thrown around and now the whole idea of working out for any team that is interested is going by the boards. With his injuries, you gotta know what you're getting, don't you? Of course, any contract will be pending a physical but its not the same as showing that he can throw the hard fastball and the devastating change.

Well, the Rangers signed him to a one-year contract, pending a physical. They also signed Kenny Lofton to a one-year deal as well. Meanwhile, there's talk of trading Aki Otsuka for either a pitcher or yet another outfielder.

So let me get this straight: Rangers "management" (and I use that term VERY loosely) decides that we need yet another outfielder who's allegedly a good hitter. "Mgmt" also decides that we need to replace a closer who was 32 of 36 with another old guy who's barely pitched the last two years.

HUH??????

So much for hoping that the new GM would turn things around. This is the same kind of stupidity that John Hart used to pull (and probably still is; for all I know, he's exercising that "consultant" role pretty heavily).

[Dan Gould]

I totally agree, Al.

And six million guaranteed for Gagne? No wonder Cleveland and the Sox dropped out of it. And all he wants is one year so he can re-establish himself and then go back on the market. You better keep that closer around, not only for when Gagne's elbow blows up again, but also for when he disappears in a year for greener pastures.

but if you want to unload him, can I interest you in a little Coco Crisp for your outfield collection?