2008-2009 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

With a four member bench there are twelve members of the pitching staff:

Beckett

Lester

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Penny

Papelbon

Okajima

Saito

Masterson

Ramirez (from KC in the Coco trade)

Delcarmen

Lopez

That's twelve, and you still have Aardsma, Wes Littleton (acquired from Texas) and a Rule 5 draftee who would have to make the team or be sent back wherever he came from. Unfortunately none of them have options so they'd have to clear waivers to be sent down to Pawtucket. But how much better is that bullpen with Saito, Masterson full-time, and no Mike Timlin? The worst guy is Javy Lopez, the LOOGY with mixed results against lefties.

Starters waiting in the wings would be Smoltz, plus Buchholz and Bowden. If Smoltz is ready to start and there are no openings due to injury, Wakefield could move to the pen and someone would need to be traded (unless Ramirez or Delcarmen have options, not sure if they do).

They'd go nine deep in the rotation, which is sick, with Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson behind Smoltz.

Edited January 11, 2009 by Dan Gould

[Matthew]

With a four member bench there are twelve members of the pitching staff:

Beckett

Lester

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Penny

Papelbon

Okajima

Saito

Masterson

Ramirez (from KC in the Coco trade)

Delcarmen

Lopez

That's twelve, and you still have Aardsma, Wes Littleton (acquired from Texas) and a Rule 5 draftee who would have to make the team or be sent back wherever he came from. Unfortunately none of them have options so they'd have to clear waivers to be sent down to Pawtucket. But how much better is that bullpen with Saito, Masterson full-time, and no Mike Timlin? The worst guy is Javy Lopez, the LOOGY with mixed results against lefties.

Starters waiting in the wings would be Smoltz, plus Buchholz and Bowden. If Smoltz is ready to start and there are no openings due to injury, Wakefield could move to the pen and someone would need to be traded (unless Ramirez or Delcarmen have options, not sure if they do).

They'd go nine deep in the rotation, which is sick, with Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson behind Smoltz.

I agree, in that I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox don't try Smoltz as a starter, with Wakefield spot starting, relief duties, and if Smoltz goes down, taking over in the starting rotation. The Wakefield/Penny duo could be troublesome, since Wakefield effectiveness/age is doubtful, and Penny's health is always a question mark. Starting pitching could be the weak spot of Boston this year.

[Dan Gould]

If health problems develop (Lester due to his workload last year) or continue (Beckett, Penny, Smoltz and to a lesser extent, Wakefield), then yes, starting pitching could be a problem. Not sure why Penny's health is "always" a concern, given his track record up until 2008. And Wakefield had his highest ERA+ since 2003, and his lowest WHIP since 2002 (also the second lowest of his career). I said it before, I don't want to see Wake in the playoff rotation but the contract renewal decision was a no-brainer based on his performance.

As for the rest of them, Beckett is reportedly fully over the problems he had last year, and Penny was never diagnosed as needing surgery - by his own admission, his desire to help the team led to his coming back too soon each time he was on the DL. So you can take that one of two ways - his injury was made worse by his own actions, in which case there is no reason he shouldn't be healthy this season, or he had a serious injury, not yet properly diagnosed, and he'll arm will blow up this year. Working against that supposition is that the Sox are nothing if not cautious. They put Saito through a rigorous exam process and I am sure they did the same thing with Penny.

I'll admit the risk to Lester bothers me a tiny bit I just hope that they are correct in their belief that his frame and his strength and his consistency in his delivery will mean that he won't have any adverse effect from last year.

But the only way that starting pitching will be a problem is if Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson are forced into the rotation, and each of them pitch like Ian Kennedy/Phil Hughes c. 2008.

[Dan Gould]

And the class of 2009 will be Rickey Henderson and JIM RICE!!!!

[Quincy]

Congrats to Rice. But Rickey's still the best.

So I was looking at the SI site for HoF voting results and saw the following under "Truth & Rumors."

"Could Fielder be headed to the BoSox?" Hmmm...

And then there's this one.

"Pedro are interested in Marlins."

He are?

[zen archer]

And the class of 2009 will be Rickey Henderson and JIM RICE!!!!

It's about TIME..Big Jim Ed is In !!!!

[Matthew]

I always found it surprising how many people knocked Rice, when, if you followed baseball during those years, it was a given that he'd wind up in the HoF. It was a big deal, I don't how many times I suffered through the line by an announcer: "The great left-field tradition of the Red Sox, Hall of Famers, Williams, Yaz, and no doubt, when he retires, Jim Rice." All. The. Time. I. Had. To Listen. To. That.

PS: When's Mike Greenwell getting in.

Edited January 12, 2009 by Matthew

[Patrick]

Nice to see Rice squeak in on his last try. Rickey was an obvious first ballot guy, despite those last few years.

How many more years of eligibility does Blyleven have? He should be there already.

Jay Bell, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, and Jesse Orosco even received a sprinkling of votes.

[Matthew]

Nice to see Rice squeak in on his last try. Rickey was an obvious first ballot guy, despite those last few years.

How many more years of eligibility does Blyleven have? He should be there already.

Jay Bell, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, and Jesse Orosco even received a sprinkling of votes.

It'll be interesting to see over the years how many "last ballot" HoFers we get.

[Dan Gould]

I always found it surprising how many people knocked Rice, when, if you followed baseball during those years, it was a given that he'd wind up in the HoF. It was a big deal, I don't how many times I suffered through the line by an announcer: "The great left-field tradition of the Red Sox, Hall of Famers, Williams, Yaz, and no doubt, when he retires, Jim Rice." All. The. Time. I. Had. To Listen. To. That.

PS: When's Mike Greenwell getting in.

Well old Gator ain't getting in but the tradition will continue when Manny goes in with a Red Sox cap.

The thing about Rice is that he fell of a cliff at a relatively young age. There's no doubt if he had gotten over 400 home runs and maintained the .300 BA, he'd have gone in a long time before. But his extremely marginal case was his own creation.

At the same time, what I can't stand are the people who act as if the Hall is unbelievably sullied by this election, and that others will now make it who don't belong. Every choice is a new one, based on the merits. Did any writer who wrote a column about Jim Rice say "well, we elected Tony Perez, so on that basis, I couldn't deny Rice"? No - every body who voted for him looked at his numbers, stacked up against the rest of the league during those years, and said "this guy belongs".

I need to keep an eye on MLB Network to see if they dig up some Rice-related game broadcasts in the coming week, or else at the end of July (same with ESPN). Would be cool to see one of those crazy games at Fenway - I seem to recall at least one where Rice, Evans, Fisk, Hobson, Lynn, Yaz and Scott all hit homers. Or most of them hit homers. Or most of them hit homers, and some of them hit more than one.

[Dan Gould]

Dawson and Blyleven went up, marginally. I believe that in the next three years there are few if any slam dunk candidates. The Hawk should go in quickly, Joe Posnansky notwithstanding. I'd like to see Joe explain why it is that a single poor statistic - OBP - should be enough to eliminate the other reasons why Dawson belongs - great defense, arm, SB potential at the beginning of his career, and ultimately pretty damn good counting stats.

I think that Raines might be the next guy to wait the longest. Didn't his vote go down the most? Actually though, Rice had a big drop one year when a couple of great players went in, can't remember who. It was as if a lot of people decided, "I can't vote for this marginal guy at the same time" but then went right back to voting for him. If that's the same for Raines, then maybe he bounces back again. Obviously he doesn't belong ahead of Rickey, but I do believe he belongs.

Its unfortunate that Tommy John goes to the Veteran's committee. All things considered, I think he deserves it, but the recent history of the veterans is pretty dismal. Does he have enough respect among his peers that got there ahead of him?

But the biggest travesty remains Blyleven. Watching MLB Network (what a great thing to have a live announcement, no mindless surfing to find out what happened), some asshat insisted that he was just a "compiler" who didn't quite do enough. Shutouts and strikeouts alone should be enough to get him in. But add in his win total and CGs, factor in the sometimes very poor teams he played for, and there is no reason he should be overlooked. And don't forget his was the Gold Standard for curve balls, and still is.

[zen archer]

I always found it surprising how many people knocked Rice, when, if you followed baseball during those years, it was a given that he'd wind up in the HoF. It was a big deal, I don't how many times I suffered through the line by an announcer: "The great left-field tradition of the Red Sox, Hall of Famers, Williams, Yaz, and no doubt, when he retires, Jim Rice." All. The. Time. I. Had. To Listen. To. That.

PS: When's Mike Greenwell getting in.

Well old Gator ain't getting in but the tradition will continue when Manny goes in with a Red Sox cap.

The thing about Rice is that he fell of a cliff at a relatively young age. There's no doubt if he had gotten over 400 home runs and maintained the .300 BA, he'd have gone in a long time before. But his extremely marginal case was his own creation.

At the same time, what I can't stand are the people who act as if the Hall is unbelievably sullied by this election, and that others will now make it who don't belong. Every choice is a new one, based on the merits. Did any writer who wrote a column about Jim Rice say "well, we elected Tony Perez, so on that basis, I couldn't deny Rice"? No - every body who voted for him looked at his numbers, stacked up against the rest of the league during those years, and said "this guy belongs".

I need to keep an eye on MLB Network to see if they dig up some Rice-related game broadcasts in the coming week, or else at the end of July (same with ESPN). Would be cool to see one of those crazy games at Fenway - I seem to recall at least one where Rice, Evans, Fisk, Hobson, Lynn, Yaz and Scott all hit homers. Or most of them hit homers. Or most of them hit homers, and some of them hit more than one.

On EEI they were saying that half the writers that vote don't report on the game any longer ?....thats crazy.

[BERIGAN]

Congrats to Rice. But Rickey's still the best.

So I was looking at the SI site for HoF voting results and saw the following under "Truth & Rumors."

"Could Fielder be headed to the BoSox?" Hmmm...

And then there's this one.

"Pedro are interested in Marlins."

He are?

It's about time they got it in. Well, if Ricky had retired earlier, he'd have been in earlier! Fire the 4-5 percent of writers that didn't think he was a first ballot guy.

Pedro are, but I think they ain't! ')

[BERIGAN]

Dawson and Blyleven went up, marginally. I believe that in the next three years there are few if any slam dunk candidates. The Hawk should go in quickly, Joe Posnansky notwithstanding. I'd like to see Joe explain why it is that a single poor statistic - OBP - should be enough to eliminate the other reasons why Dawson belongs - great defense, arm, SB potential at the beginning of his career, and ultimately pretty damn good counting stats.

I think that Raines might be the next guy to wait the longest. Didn't his vote go down the most? Actually though, Rice had a big drop one year when a couple of great players went in, can't remember who. It was as if a lot of people decided, "I can't vote for this marginal guy at the same time" but then went right back to voting for him. If that's the same for Raines, then maybe he bounces back again. Obviously he doesn't belong ahead of Rickey, but I do believe he belongs.

Its unfortunate that Tommy John goes to the Veteran's committee. All things considered, I think he deserves it, but the recent history of the veterans is pretty dismal. Does he have enough respect among his peers that got there ahead of him?

But the biggest travesty remains Blyleven. Watching MLB Network (what a great thing to have a live announcement, no mindless surfing to find out what happened), some asshat insisted that he was just a "compiler" who didn't quite do enough. Shutouts and strikeouts alone should be enough to get him in. But add in his win total and CGs, factor in the sometimes very poor teams he played for, and there is no reason he should be overlooked. And don't forget his was the Gold Standard for curve balls, and still is.

If OBP is so important, then why is Adam Dunn without a job???

Jayson Stark had a very good column on the HOF'er choices this year, and the folks he did, and didn't vote for. Sure makes a compelling argument for Raines, Dale Murphy, and others.

Murph got a whole 62 votes

Stark....

In the '80s, Murphy led the National League in runs and hits, tied Mike Schmidt for the most RBIs and finished second to Schmidt in home runs. More than that, he was also a back-to-back MVP, a five-time Gold Glove winner, a 30-30 man, a guy who once led his whole sport in All-Star votes and one of the best human beings ever to make a home run trot. So if he's not a Hall of Famer, he's sure the best player on this ballot who's only getting 75 stinking votes a year.

[tkeith]

Murph got a whole 62 votes

*THAT* is a tremendous travesty. Both Hawk and Murph belong, but that vote total is a real slap in the face.

[Dan Gould]

As disappointing as it is for Hawk and Blyleven, overall the baseball news just keeps getting better:

According to multiple sources, the FBI has impaneled a Grand Jury to consider whether Clemens should be indicted for perjury.

A federal grand jury will begin hearing evidence as soon as Tuesday in Washington to determine whether to indict Roger Clemens for lying under oath before Congress when he vehemently denied using anabolic steroids and human growth hormone during his illustrious career.

After considering witness testimony and other evidence federal agents have gathered in the past year, evidence sources called "overwhelming," the grand jurors will be asked to decide if there is probable cause to issue a criminal indictment against the seven-time Cy Young Award winner.

On the other hand, the Times article has this quote:

“Two possible things could be going on here,” said Daniel C. Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School and former federal prosecutor when asked about the current effort of the investigators. “They are either just trying to show Congress that indeed they are doing something or the other possibility is that this is the beginning of something interesting.”

Personally I suspect that the former (as in, the Daily News report) is more likely than what the professor said to the Times. Do D.C. prosecutors waste resources by convening a Grant Jury if they don't have evidence but want to "show Congress they are doing something"? Furthermore, the committee that referred the matter to them has no pending plans to call the FBI in to report on their investigation, so there is no "see? We've convened a grand jury, what else do you want?" - they simply put the matter into the FBI's hand.

And if the News, which has been accurate in its reporting throughout, has it right, then you can expect an indictment sometime pretty soon. What I wonder is whether or not they have DNA samples from Clemens yet or not. Rusty denies any knowledge but I doubt he'd come out and announce that they asked for a sample. On the other hand maybe they will present the evidence to the grand jury, presuming that the grand jury can subpoena a sample.

[Quincy]

Nice to see Rice squeak in on his last try. Rickey was an obvious first ballot guy, despite those last few years.

How many more years of eligibility does Blyleven have? He should be there already.

Jay Bell, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, and Jesse Orosco even received a sprinkling of votes.

It'll be interesting to see over the years how many "last ballot" HoFers we get.

As far as past Hall of Famers getting elected in the final year of eligibility, it's Red Ruffing & Ralph Kiner.

[Tim McG]

Attention Chuch Nessa: Tonight's Classic Game on the MLB Network: 8:00 PM 4/21/1991 Chicago @ Pittsburgh Resulting in a 13-12 Shootout

Goodspeak: I really enjoyed the 'Stick, I even received a couple of "endurance pins" for watching an extra inning game. That 1980s Giants team deserves to be remembered for more that getting swept during th "Earthquake Series," it was a fun and exciting team to watch, and full of interesting characters. Poor Penitentiary Face, he wore out his welcome at the end, even had (according to The Chronical" Will Clark drop a N-bomb on him.

If the Earthquake of 1989 didn't happen, I predict the Giants would have made a real contest out of the WS...maybe even won it.

I think more pressing matters were at hand then.

[Tim McG]

Persistent rumors have Man-Ram talking to the Giants....stay tuned.

Edited January 13, 2009 by GoodSpeak

[Indestructible!]

If the Earthquake of 1989 didn't happen, I predict the Giants would have made a real contest out of the WS...maybe even won it.

Sorry Tim.

Not.A.Chance.In.Hell.

And I say that as someone who is definitely NOT an A's fan.

[Matthew]

If the Earthquake of 1989 didn't happen, I predict the Giants would have made a real contest out of the WS...maybe even won it.

Sorry Tim.

Not.A.Chance.In.Hell.

And I say that as someone who is definitely NOT an A's fan.

I have to agree with GS on this one. In game four, Kevin Mitchell just missed parking one out of the 'Stick that would have put the Giants ahead. I still think to this day, if that went out, the Giants would have made a run at winning the series. That quake messed everyone up in the Bay Area, even where I lived in Berkeley, people were more berserk than usual.

[Dan Gould]

Question for my stats-saturated friends:

Does Thurman Munson belong in the Hall?

I ask because my older brother's response to Rice's election is that he regards no one as worthy of the Hall until Munson and Santo are inducted.

I have always believed Santo deserves it based on his performance relative to other 3Bs in the Hall, but Munson shouldn't get special dispensation just because he died before he padded his stats enough (though I guess there is some precedent since Puckett went in after his career was cut short). But at the same time, I've never really looked closely at the question of Munson so I am curious what you guys say.

[Matthew]

Question for my stats-saturated friends:

Does Thurman Munson belong in the Hall?

I ask because my older brother's response to Rice's election is that he regards no one as worthy of the Hall until Munson and Santo are inducted.

I have always believed Santo deserves it based on his performance relative to other 3Bs in the Hall, but Munson shouldn't get special dispensation just because he died before he padded his stats enough (though I guess there is some precedent since Puckett went in after his career was cut short). But at the same time, I've never really looked closely at the question of Munson so I am curious what you guys say.

I always found it strange that Munson was not is the Hall. He has a great resume: first Yankee captain since Lou Gehrig, seven time all-star, MVP in 1976, clutch hitter, played the game the way it should be played. When he died, I just assumed that he would go in -- and yet, he loses out each year. Sometimes I wonder how the baseball writers come to their conclusions on who's in and who's out. You would even think the Yankee publicity machine would be out in force over Munson. Remember when Rick Cerone didn't go out to the catcher's position for the national athemn the next game? Yes, he belongs.

[Matthew]

What's more: If I have a choice between Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and Thurman Munson -- I'll pick Munson every time, he was a great player.

[Dan Gould]

Question for my stats-saturated friends:

Does Thurman Munson belong in the Hall?

I ask because my older brother's response to Rice's election is that he regards no one as worthy of the Hall until Munson and Santo are inducted.

I have always believed Santo deserves it based on his performance relative to other 3Bs in the Hall, but Munson shouldn't get special dispensation just because he died before he padded his stats enough (though I guess there is some precedent since Puckett went in after his career was cut short). But at the same time, I've never really looked closely at the question of Munson so I am curious what you guys say.

I always found it strange that Munson was not is the Hall. He has a great resume: first Yankee captain since Lou Gehrig, seven time all-star, MVP in 1976, clutch hitter, played the game the way it should be played. When he died, I just assumed that he would go in -- and yet, he loses out each year. Sometimes I wonder how the baseball writers come to their conclusions on who's in and who's out. You would even think the Yankee publicity machine would be out in force over Munson. Remember when Rick Cerone didn't go out to the catcher's position for the national athemn the next game? Yes, he belongs.

Not sure that first Yankee captain since Gehrig should be part of it, but he did win ROY in addition to an MVP. But actually looking at his stats page on Baseball-Reference, I can kind of see where his numbers are a little short in some ways. OBP and SLG aren't great, for one thing (Fisk was really quite consistent in beating him there, and OPS+, which adjusts for Park effects, show Fisk to be superior through their early 30s, with Fisk declining years bringing him back to Munson's level by the end of his career). It can also be argued that Munson was showing the usual steep decline that most catchers have in their early 30s, so it makes me wonder if Munson would have played as long, and as successfully, as Fisk did. Thurman definitely was a lot more pudgy than Pudge.

But Munson was a good hitter for a period of time and obviously a strong defensive catcher. I'm curious where that .756 OPS compares to other catchers in the Hall.

As for a Yankee publicity machine, did they go all out for Scooter because he was alive to enjoy it? And does Munson deserve it completely based on his stats or does he need a little extra credit because of his premature death?