2009-2010 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

Paps,

Interesting promotion they are doing - you only pay for Extra Innings but you get your new package for free. The three months @ 58 for baseball is a small discount from their current price of 4 payments of $50 but when you get the rest of the channels free its pretty sweet. I need to remember about this next year to see if we can get such a deal. The promotion we got drops our monthly price to about $35 for however long it lasts so I am not complaining. For 2010, I am hoping to scrape together $100 for MLB.TV.

[Dan Gould]

Paps,

did you buy Extra Innings last year? I'm wondering if they are targeting people who showed interest before - or maybe you had it and dropped it in 2009 so they think they can entice you to buy it again, by using it as the hook to make you switch packages.

[Dave James]

I am growing increasingly concerned that the Yankees made a strategic mistake in trading Austin Jackson and not resigning Johnny Damon. The two new Tigers were a combined 6 of 8 in today's game and Jackson has been knocking the cover off the ball all Spring. I know it's early and things change, but I'm still worried.

[papsrus]

Paps,

did you buy Extra Innings last year? I'm wondering if they are targeting people who showed interest before - or maybe you had it and dropped it in 2009 so they think they can entice you to buy it again, by using it as the hook to make you switch packages.

That's exactly right. I had it in 2008 but not in 2009. They were looking for something they knew would be enticing. Good sales job on their part. I'm happy!

[Dan Gould]

So unfortunately for me, they have no idea that a deal like that would hook me.

[Matthew]

I am growing increasingly concerned that the Yankees made a strategic mistake in trading Austin Jackson and not resigning Johnny Damon. The two new Tigers were a combined 6 of 8 in today's game and Jackson has been knocking the cover off the ball all Spring. I know it's early and things change, but I'm still worried.

The Yankee outfield will be a problem all year if they don't trade for someone . They will probably give it a try the first month or two of the season, then pick up someone from one of their farm teams, ie., Royals, Padres, Pirates, teams like that.

[Dan Gould]

Austin Jackson is knocking the cover off the ball? Well, so did Gritty Gutty Gardner last March. And what did he do when the minor leaguers went where they belonged and the major leaguers went north? Hit about .220 for a month and lost the starting job to Melky.

The loss of Damon will hurt, without a doubt, but it will be at least a year before we know if trading Austin Jackson was a mistake or not. Given his performance in the minors, Detroit is really rushing things if they actually use him as a starter, regardless of how he does in March, when pitchers are just getting into the swing of things, and lots of at-bats come against guys who won't sniff the majors for a long time, if ever.

[ghost of miles]

Is the $14.95 radio package for the entire regular season still available? That's what I'll probably spring for, if it's still around... I still love listening to radio broadcasts of games.

One of NY's scheduled pitchers for tonight: the switch-pitcher (yes, that's correct) Pat Venditte. Watch what happened last season in the minors when he faced a switch-hitter:

Switch-pitcher vs. switch-hitter

Edited March 30, 2010 by ghost of miles

[WorldB3]

Bradley got kick out of two in a row this weekend. How dumb can a player be? Last thing any team is a headcase like Bradley on a team -- get rid of him.

Wait a minute, he got kicked out of two spring training games that don't count? Have fun with that.

I think on paper Seattle should win the division easily, but something still doesn't seem right with them. Same for the Angels. However 83-84 wins I think gets you the AL West this year and I don't know if the A's (my team) or the Rangers have 84 wins in them.

[Quincy]

Is the $14.95 radio package for the entire regular season still available? That's what I'll probably spring for, if it's still around... I still love listening to radio broadcasts of games.

Yup, I bought the iPod Touch/iPhone version. Vin Scully is still doing the 1st 3 innings of Dodger home games (also when they play the Angels.) It's also fun to flip between the announcers when it's late & close.

[Quincy]

I think on paper Seattle should win the division easily, but something still doesn't seem right with them. Same for the Angels. However 83-84 wins I think gets you the AL West this year and I don't know if the A's (my team) or the Rangers have 84 wins in them.

Yeah, I'm not convinced that Seattle has it either, as much as I'd like them to win it.

The Baseball Analyst site collected the various projection "function machines" (for those of you raised on early '70s math textbooks) and Texas looks pretty decent according to a few of them. But as you say, it won't take much to win the division, so who knows. Kinsler starts the season on the DL which hurts Texas from the get go. All the divisional race projections are included in the link btw, not just the all important AL West.

[Matthew]

I think on paper Seattle should win the division easily, but something still doesn't seem right with them. Same for the Angels. However 83-84 wins I think gets you the AL West this year and I don't know if the A's (my team) or the Rangers have 84 wins in them.

Yeah, I'm not convinced that Seattle has it either, as much as I'd like them to win it.

The Baseball Analyst site collected the various projection "function machines" (for those of you raised on early '70s math textbooks) and Texas looks pretty decent according to a few of them. But as you say, it won't take much to win the division, so who knows. Kinsler starts the season on the DL which hurts Texas from the get go. All the divisional race projections are included in the link btw, not just the all important AL West.

I'm not on the Mariners bandwagon yet either. Cliff Lee has to be a concern, those abdominal muscles can take, heaven knows how long, to really get well. Plus, the dufus gets suspended because of stuff in a spring training game. The offense is a major concern, with Milton Bradley(?????) batting fourth. I would be surprised if Bradley doesn't have a major meltdown by the end of May, and he is just a bad clubhouse presence. Back end of the rotation is shaky. On the plus side, Felix looks set for the Cy Young this year, good defense again, and the West looks like a division where 90 wins will take it. Will the Mariners win it? Well, as Yogi says:"In baseball, you don't know nothing."

[Chalupa]

And so it begins. . . Mets' Daniel Murphy out 2-6 weeks with MCL sprain. Jacobs now starter at 1B.

Next?

Edited March 31, 2010 by J.H. Deeley

[Matthew]

And so it begins. . . Mets' Daniel Murphy out 2-6 weeks with MCL sprain. Jacobs now starter at 1B.

Next?

50/50 -- Either David Wright or Johan Santana. These are the Mets after all.....

[Chalupa]

And so it begins. . . Mets' Daniel Murphy out 2-6 weeks with MCL sprain. Jacobs now starter at 1B.

Next?

50/50 -- Either David Wright or Johan Santana. These are the Mets after all.....

It was Jose Reyes their starting SS.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=5045203

Wright and Santana were good guesses. I would have added Beltran.

[Matthew]

I guess this is a good time for predictions:

AL East:

Boston

Tampa Bay

New York (I'm keeping to my annual tradition of saying the Yankees won't make the playoffs, you're welcome Ghostie ).

Toronto

Baltimore

AL Central:

Detroit

Chicago -- Wild Card

Minnesota (it will be close, any of these three can win)

Kansas City

Cleveland

AL West:

Los Angeles

Seattle (I'm not completely sold on the Mariners, they'll be improved, but the offense will be their downfall).

Texas

Oakland

NL East:

Philadelphia

Atlanta (I predict a one-game playoff between these two for the division, with the Phillies winning)

Florida

New York

Washington

NL Central:

St. Louis

Chicago

Cincinnati

Milwaukee

Houston

Pittsburgh

NL West

Colorado

San Francisco -- Wild Card

Los Angeles

Arizona

San Diego

AL Champion: Chicago White Sox

NL Champion: San Francisco Giants (their pitching will get them through any series)

World Series Champion: San Francisco Giants. Pitching and defense is the name of the game this year, so the Giants can win it all with their pitching staff, though like Seattle, offense will be a continuing problem.

Edited April 1, 2010 by Matthew

[Chalupa]

In the Junior Circuit I like the Yankees, Twins, Angels, Sox wild card. In the Senior Circuit - Phillies, Cards, Giants, Braves wild card. Yankees over the Phillies in 6.

Edit - that's Red not White for the AL WC.

Edited April 1, 2010 by J.H. Deeley

[Chalupa]

Though it pains me to say it - I'm in 100% agreement w/ him on this one.

Schilling: Trading Cliff Lee was a,"stupid, stupid move"

[WorldB3]

I guess this is a good time for predictions:

AL Champion: Chicago White Sox

NL Champion: San Francisco Giants (their pitching will get them through any series)

World Series Champion: San Francisco Giants. Pitching and defense is the name of the game this year, so the Giants can win it all with their pitching staff, though like Seattle, offense will be a continuing problem.

I think that would be great but the Giants have a lot of issues with defense especially in the infield and team speed. Not a lot of home runs in that line up and I don't see them manufacturing any runs. I do think the Rockies are bit over rated so they will be in it all year and if they get in they have the pitching to shut other teams down.

Mine:

Al

East:

Boston

NY (Wild Card)

Central:

Wt Sox

West

Mariners

NL

East:

Phillies

Central:

Cards

West:

Rockies

Giants (WC)

World Series:

Phillies over Boston.

[ghost of miles]

While we're waiting for Opening Day--a little musical tribute to the game I cooked up this week for Afterglow:

Play Ball! The National Pastime in Popular Song

[Quincy]

I see in the transactions listings that new-to-Boston Boof Bonser will start on the DL. I have high hopes of him having a role with the staff, just to see what Dan can do with the name when Boof has a poor outing.

[Dan Gould]

Ah, but what if I have found peaceful contentment in all things baseball (and board) related? Hate to disappoint but I don't plan on any cursing, creative or otherwise. Feel free to set an over/under of about 9 PM Sunday night, or the first gopher ball Beckett gives up, but that's my approach to the nation's pastime, as far as the board is concerned.

And anyway, its Tazawa's pending Tommy John surgery that is most disconcerting injury to date. I think they want Bonser in the bullpen (and I know they can't send him to Pawtucket to be a starter without passing him through waivers) so aside from Wakefield/Dice-K, there's only Bowden at AAA to get the call if anyone gets hurt or there's a need for a spot starter.

On the other hand, if the reason Tazawa was at about 86-87 is a bad elbow, maybe there's hope he can reach the majors with a fastball that can reach 90.

Matthew - what makes you think that second best team in the AL Central will have enough wins to beat out number two in the East? I know the argument that the East will beat up on each other, but its the same way in the Central - no team will dominate, just a mix of wins/losses befitting a division of mediocrity. So if the East teams beat up on the rest of the league, more or less, how do you come out with the central second place team having the wins?

I'd really like to know what your assumed win totals are. Eric's link to the various projections almost all agree that the east teams are 90+ wins and the central teams are mid-80s. It just makes no sense to think that a Central division team can come out with the wild card.

Edited April 1, 2010 by Dan Gould

[Matthew]

Ah, but what if I have found peaceful contentment in all things baseball (and board) related? Hate to disappoint but I don't plan on any cursing, creative or otherwise. Feel free to set an over/under of about 9 PM Sunday night, or the first gopher ball Beckett gives up, but that's my approach to the nation's pastime, as far as the board is concerned.

And anyway, its Tazawa's pending Tommy John surgery that is most disconcerting injury to date. I think they want Bonser in the bullpen (and I know they can't send him to Pawtucket to be a starter without passing him through waivers) so aside from Wakefield/Dice-K, there's only Bowden at AAA to get the call if anyone gets hurt or there's a need for a spot starter.

On the other hand, if the reason Tazawa was at about 86-87 is a bad elbow, maybe there's hope he can reach the majors with a fastball that can reach 90.

Matthew - what makes you think that second best team in the AL Central will have enough wins to beat out number two in the East? I know the argument that the East will beat up on each other, but its the same way in the Central - no team will dominate, just a mix of wins/losses befitting a division of mediocrity. So if the East teams beat up on the rest of the league, more or less, how do you come out with the central second place team having the wins?

I'd really like to know what your assumed win totals are. Eric's link to the various projections almost all agree that the east teams are 90+ wins and the central teams are mid-80s. It just makes no sense to think that a Central division team can come out with the wild card.

I say the wild card will come from the Central because of my iron-clad law of never predicting a playoff spot for TBTMCB*. Even given that neurosis of mine (scientific term: Hateus Yankeeitus), I see New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, bunched within six games of each other. I see Boston and the Yankees coming back to the pack, and not running away with the wild card, so anything can happen in my book. Also, I'm tired of the Yankee/Boston duo always making the playoffs, so this is my purely contrarian ego at work. Who are your guys going to trust more, me or a computer?

*The Best Team Money Can Buy

[Dan Gould]

Don't need the computer to tell me that all three East teams will be better than the number two Central team and almost certainly better than the number one Central team (or at minimum, the top two East teams will have more wins than the Central champion). Your smart play would be to put TBTMCB in third place (due to injuries or general decrepitude of the critical but aged members) but it seems as though the Central division would have to be a lot better than it looks to produce a wild card.

[Dave James]

New York (I'm keeping to my annual tradition of saying the Yankees won't make the playoffs, you're welcome Ghostie ).

Matthew,

How's that been working out for you?