Guy Berger

ESPN predictions Steve Kerr overview Sports Guy article:

This answers half of my question. (Though I assume this goes only for the sets licensed from Sony, Verve or Warner -- wouldn't EMI/BN let them do infinite reprints?) As far as "they aren't gougers", it's a distributional question. What happens right now is that the people who pick the sets up early pay a low price, people who pick the sets up late pay a very high price, and speculators* pocket big bains. If you raised the prices, then early birds would pay a little more, but Mosaic gets to keep some of the money that goes to speculators. *I'm not sure if these exist, but it seems crazy to think that they don't, and somebody on the Byrd/Adams thread just mentioned that someone purchased 6 frickin' sets. **I wonder if Mosaic would give me data for a research paper.

I'm kind of surprised by this. Since some of these sets sell for ridiculous prices at a later date, I figure Mosaic could rake in some money either by raising the prices initially to capture that profit, or do re-prints once they gauge that sufficient demand exists. Guy

If my math is right, that's the median predicted outcome - Spurs in 7. Guy

What does all that even mean?! ← If the outcome specified by one of those contracts is realized, you get paid $1. So you can buy/sell a contract that the Pistons will sweep the Spurs for a price between 1.5 and 2.5 cents. (The high price is the cheapest "sell" offer currently on the market; the low price is the highest "buy" offer currently on the market.) Basically the numbers reflect the probabilities the market places on these outcomes. For example, say you can buy a Pistons in 4 contract for 2 cents. In the case where the Pistons don't sweep, you win nothing. In the case where the Pistons do sweep, you win a $1. 2% * $1 + 98% * $0 = $0.02 Guy

Here's what Tradesports is currently predicting: FINAL.4GAMES.PISTONS 1.5-2.5 FINAL.5GAMES.PISTONS 9.0-9.3 FINAL.6GAMES.PISTONS 9.8-10.9 FINAL.7GAMES.PISTONS 11.0-11.4 FINAL.4GAMES.SPURS 9.0-9.4 FINAL.5GAMES.SPURS 13.6-14.2 FINAL.6GAMES.SPURS 25.0-25.9 FINAL.7GAMES.SPURS 22.1-22.9 2005 NBA Championship Winner NBA.SPURS 70.5-71.1 NBA.PISTONS 29.6-29.8

I wouldn't project the Baron record over the whole season, after all we don't expect Denver to win 66 games next year... But I think as it stands the team is good enough to probably win 42-50 games, good enough to contend for a 6-8 playoff spot. Now if they could only get rid of Foyle. And maybe Fisher and Murphy's oversized contracts. Guy

I'm a big GSW fan too... they weren't quite as hot as Denver near the end, but they were pretty damn good. Assuming that Baron Davis stays healthy for 85-90% of the season and that Mullin doesn't make any bonehead decisions like he did last summer, they could very well make the playoffs. Of course, knowing the W's track record, I won't get my hopes up. Guy

I predicted Spurs over Heat in 6 back in April, just switch Pistons for Heat. One thing nobody's mentioned yet is the coaching matchup. The two best coaches in the NBA, Brown and Popovich -- should be interesting. Guy

Aside from Shaq and Wade's injuries, the Heat lost because of their biggest weakness -- a lackluster supporting cast. Guy

I just saw Our Hospitality and Sherlock Jr. on DVD, and was wondering -- how realistic are the period sets? Were 1830s train rides really like those depicted in the film? Second the Marx Bros recommendation... I recently rented Duck Soup, it's awesome. Though I'll be a bit of a philistine and admit that at least in that movie, Harpo is the funniest one. Guy

Nah, Spurs in 6 (unless Pistons get lucky with another injury) Guy

Impressive play, great D by Detroit. Looks like SS owes Jim another CD. Guy

Great game so far. By the way, it looks like I might be right with the following prediction:

I think the league took issue with Wallace's silly conspiracy theorizing, not with Shaq's garden variety complaints about the refs. Guy

Prediction: assuming Wade is not a complete cripple tonight (he WILL play regardless), we may see something like the Jordan flu game or the Isiah Thomas ankle sprain game. Guy

7 out of 10 ESPN writers are picking the Pistons for tonight's game. Tradesports (online betting markets) are calling the Heat 11-9 favorites. Guy

Keith Jarrett is playing at Carnegie Hall one of those days. (I don't know which, but I should -- I have tickets somewhere!) The Motian/Frisell/Lovano and Rite of Strings trios are sharing a double bill at CH around that time too. Guy

Alright, I picked up CV and Tribute new (for $11.50 and $21 respectively). I'll be on the lookout for a relatively cheap copy of Dance... Guy

yupyup

Any recommendations for these (aside from the most recent one)? A lot of them seem to be out of print domestically so I want to narrow down my choices before paying $20-25 a disc. The ones I'm especially interested in are Conception Vessel, Tribute and Dance. Guy

Chen's a really nice guy. I saw him give a seminar on the paper mentioned in the article and it was interesting. He has a whole cottage industry of papers on various species of monkeys, and he wants to do research on more primitive primates. I'm not sure how valuable this research is as "economics" (you could make some arguments that it does) but it is interesting. If you have some spare time and want to be amused, go to his website and watch the quicktime video of the capuchin monkeys trading coins for food. Guy

It's a team sport, Guy. One guy alone means nothing. That's what makes the Pistons so tough. The Pistons are unusual in that they have a collectively strong starting 5, none of which are superstars or (with the possible exception of Big Ben) irreplaceable. On the other hand, without Wade the Heat offense completely breaks down since he's the only guy on the team who can routinely drive to the basket. I think the "no Wade in game 7, no Heat victory" is a safe, rational assessment. (I agree with you that those are the breaks, though.) When healthy and putting up his regular season numbers, you might be right. But I think at this juncture Wade is more important to the team than Shaq is. Guy

Last I recall, the Pistons only had to play the Lakers in the playoffs last year, not any of the other teams that were better than them. Guy

At the very least, the Spurs, Wolves and Lakers (possibly the Kings too) were better than the Pistons last year. Sometimes the best team in the NBA loses due to bad luck (the Spurs against the Lakers last year), and sometimes it's an attitude thing (why the Lakers lost in the finals). Guy