2009-2010 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

I have to suspect that eight million for one year was important for Boras (and presumably Damon) to show that they could get more for one year than the Yankees had offered and they declined (2/14 million).

Now as to the impact on the Yankees (and indirectly on the Red Sox):

The only way the Yankees have improved is if you believe that Nick Johnson + Brett Gardner/Randy Wynn is > Hideki Matsui + Johnny Damon. And there is no way you can claim that. Gardner and Wynn have anemic bats. There're no two ways around that. Damon will outhit in every possible way that combination, and I don't think that the improvement in defense is nearly enough to overcome it.

Then there is Nick "Mr DL" Johnson. Great OBP - when he plays. Doesn't hit like he used to - his career BA is just over .270 yet it seems like, back in 2003, he just had this beautiful sweet swing that delivered hit after hit. His power numbers should go up at the Little League Home of the World Champions but do they even come close to Matsui? And how long before he is hurt anyway?

When the Yankees traded for Granderson and Damon kept floating around out there, my greatest fear was that, no matter what was said, they would still sign Damon at some point. I celebrated when they didn't.

The Yankee lineup is now unmistakeably shorter than it was last year. They better pray that none of their senior citizens break down or start declining further. They got lucky last year with health in the lineup and rotation. We'll see if that keeps up.

[Tim McG]

Tim Lincecum signs for crazy money.

Up from $650,000 bucks, he signed a two year deal for $8 million the first year and $13 million the second year....with $650,00 bucks in incentives. I should be so lucky.

Maybe that will be motivation enough to stay off the pot smoking.

We can only hope.

I hope no such thing. I don't care one way or another what he smokes, though it does gp to show you that one can smoke pot and darn near every professional hitter in baseball. Good for him. As for the money, I think it's great when great players get payed the big money, and players with declining skills (as in Johnny Damon) have their paychecks nipped accordingly.

True, but I'd sure hate to see his pitching prowess take a dive because of the damaging effects of THC.

[ghost of miles]

I have to suspect that eight million for one year was important for Boras (and presumably Damon) to show that they could get more for one year than the Yankees had offered and they declined (2/14 million).

I'd bet anything, though, that in his heart of hearts Damon wishes he could have gotten that Yankee offer back.

Now as to the impact on the Yankees (and indirectly on the Red Sox):

The only way the Yankees have improved is if you believe that Nick Johnson + Brett Gardner/Randy Wynn is > Hideki Matsui + Johnny Damon. And there is no way you can claim that. Gardner and Wynn have anemic bats. There're no two ways around that. Damon will outhit in every possible way that combination, and I don't think that the improvement in defense is nearly enough to overcome it.

But this isn't really an accurate portrayal of the changes that have been made. More to the point, does Nick Johnson + Curtis Granderson=Hideki Matsui plus Johnny Damon? And I'd say in some ways it does. Johnson and Granderson are 5-7 yrs younger than Matsui and Damon, Granderson has the speed that Damon's losing and is a good bet to at least match his 30 HR total and then some in Yankee Stadium, whereas Damon--who does hit well at Detroit's park--gets nowhere near 24 HR again IMO. I'll grant you this--not sure at all that Johnson or Granderson have the "big-game" quality that leads to Damon pulling off a double-steal in WS Game 4 and Matsui tearing apart the Phillies in WS Game 6. I would've preferred to see at least one of them stay for another year. Now does Winn=Melky Cabrera? Probably not...probably a slight decline there, but it's much less significant than the Johnson/Granderson vs. Matsui/Damon equation.

Then there is Nick "Mr DL" Johnson. Great OBP - when he plays. Doesn't hit like he used to - his career BA is just over .270 yet it seems like, back in 2003, he just had this beautiful sweet swing that delivered hit after hit. His power numbers should go up at the Little League Home of the World Champions but do they even come close to Matsui? And how long before he is hurt anyway?

Well, Matsui's first quote upon reporting to the Angels camp was, "To be honest, my knees aren't 100%." He's no safe bet to get through the season either. And if Johnson does get hurt, then I suspect we'll be seeing Jesus Montero sooner rather than later, with Posada, A-Rod and others rotating through the DH spot.

When the Yankees traded for Granderson and Damon kept floating around out there, my greatest fear was that, no matter what was said, they would still sign Damon at some point. I celebrated when they didn't.

The Yankee lineup is now unmistakeably shorter than it was last year. They better pray that none of their senior citizens break down or start declining further. They got lucky last year with health in the lineup and rotation. We'll see if that keeps up.

Again, I wish we'd brought back either Matsui or Damon as well, but overall I think this team is a slight improvement over last year's team. Overall, I think the Bosox probably did more to improve themselves, especially with the free-agent signing of Lackey. But NY got "lucky" last year (and don't forget A-Rod's absence for the first 30 games of the season--they were definitely a better team after he came back, but they did weather that and still won 103 games) in part because Girardi managed his older players well. I don't expect NY to pull away in August this year like they did last season; I think this year it will go down to the wire.

[Dan Gould]

It is ludicrous to compare Damon to Granderson. One didn't replace the other. Granderson plays CF, where he is an unmistakable upgrade over Cabrera/Gardner. But Damon plays LF, which will now be manned by Gardner/Wynn. And neither of them are anywhere close to the offensive force that Damon was (particularly at the Little League Stadium).

Furthermore, it wasn't Granderson who eliminated Damon from the Yankee's plans, it was Wynn. Granderson doesn't replace Damon. The fact that he is an upgrade over Cabrera/Gardner may minimize the downgrade that Gardner/Wynn in LF represents, but the fact remains that any proper comparison looks at Damon vs Gardner/Wynn. That's the change on the field.

As to Matsui vs Johnson, even factoring in age and some pretty major injuries in recent years (wrist, both knees), Matsui has a better record of being capable of playing. And he obviously brings better power. Also, Johnson is replacing Damon in the number two hole, and despite his great OBP, he brings one huge problem to that position: Utterly leaden feet. Damon on first, double to the gap, he scores. 19 times out of 20, Johnson just manages to huff his way to third base. Granted with Teixeira, A-Rod and Posada behind him, there will be dangerous hitters who can string together the hits to get him home. But is that really ideal? Can anyone name a slower number two hitter in the majors? I can't think of one offhand.

[ghost of miles]

It is ludicrous to compare Damon to Granderson. One didn't replace the other. Granderson plays CF, where he is an unmistakable upgrade over Cabrera/Gardner. But Damon plays LF, which will now be manned by Gardner/Wynn. And neither of them are anywhere close to the offensive force that Damon was (particularly at the Little League Stadium).

Furthermore, it wasn't Granderson who eliminated Damon from the Yankee's plans, it was Wynn. Granderson doesn't replace Damon. The fact that he is an upgrade over Cabrera/Gardner may minimize the downgrade that Gardner/Wynn in LF represents, but the fact remains that any proper comparison looks at Damon vs Gardner/Wynn. That's the change on the field.

As to Matsui vs Johnson, even factoring in age and some pretty major injuries in recent years (wrist, both knees), Matsui has a better record of being capable of playing. And he obviously brings better power. Also, Johnson is replacing Damon in the number two hole, and despite his great OBP, he brings one huge problem to that position: Utterly leaden feet. Damon on first, double to the gap, he scores. 19 times out of 20, Johnson just manages to huff his way to third base. Granted with Teixeira, A-Rod and Posada behind him, there will be dangerous hitters who can string together the hits to get him home. But is that really ideal? Can anyone name a slower number two hitter in the majors? I can't think of one offhand.

It's not a given that Granderson will be in centerfield--there's been talk of keeping Gardner in center and moving Granderson to left (which Granderson says he'd be fine with). In which case no, it's not at all ludicrous to talk about Granderson being Damon's replacement. (It's not ludicrous in any event, as it's basically Granderson and Gardner/Winn vs. Damon and Gardner/Cabrera overall.) It's also not a given that Johnson will be the #2 batter (though I agree with you about the slowness-on-the-basepaths factor and have thought about this myself...also leaves NY more vulnerable to DPs if Johnson is indeed the #2 hitter)--again, it might be Granderson (who, despite his off-year for BA in 2009, is a lifetime .272 hitter and hit lead-off for Detroit 130 times last year. Damon hit a cumulative low 280s for the Yanks over the past 4 years). And Granderson and Gardner, wherever they play, will certainly give the Yanks better defense in left and center than Damon and Gardner did.

The Yankees signed Winn because they were tired of screwing around with Scott Boras. I don't really blame them, frankly. I wish we could've brought Damon back, but he and Boras really seemed to think they could land a two-year/20-million-or-plus deal somewhere...they obviously misread the market.

More on Damon, FWIW: Tigers not getting 2009 version of Damon

EDIT: OK, true, Granderson probably strikes out too much to be a #2 hitter, as this post observes, but the notion of putting Cano in #2 is one I've pondered myself.

If nothing else, there's pretty much no easy out in the Yanks' lineup until you get to the #9 spot--and that's if

Wynn's in the lineup. If #9 is Brett Gardner, well, hey, he hit .270 last year and is a threat on the basepaths...I'll take that in a #9 hitter, with Jeter/Johnson-or-Cano-or-Granderson/Tex/A-Rod coming up next!

EDIT 2: What's your assessment of the Bosox' strengths and potential weaknesses this year?

Edited February 22, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Dan Gould]

You really want Gardner, who couldn't hack it last season and was replaced by AAAA Melky Cabrera, in CF next year? The fact is that Gardner hasn't even proved himself anything other than a pinch-runner in the major leagues, and may force the Yankees to play Wynn far more than they'd like, if he can't figure out how to hit major league pitching. That's another reason why no Damon is a bad thing. The downside of choosing Gardner over Cabrera.

As to the batting order, Calm Eyes Jeter was pretty happy hitting lead off last year. Replacing his .388 lifetime OBP with Granderson's .344 wouldn't make a whole lot of sense. Granderson batted leadoff because of his speed, not because he actually gets on base. Batting Granderson lower in the order also makes sense because he has a proclivity for hitting his home runs with no one on base. If he bats behind all those decent hitters they might get a little more bang for his blasts.

[Quincy]

EDIT 2: What's your assessment of the Bosox' strengths and potential weaknesses this year?

No doubt jazzed about the awesome power of Beltre and youth of Cameron. At least last season Jeter proved a starting SS of the advanced age of the new BoSox one (35) can indeed win a World Series, so we don't have to hear that nonsense.

And Dan, it's "Winn." Wynn was the "Toy Cannon." I don't know what kind of toy Randy is, but it's a lower caliber than that.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Quincy

[Dan Gould]

A thousand apologies to old Jimmy. There was a time, when I was about 8 or 9 years old, and lasting for about two weeks, when I was utterly fascinated by "the Toy Cannon" and would take huge whacks with the wiffle ball bat in order to duplicate his feats.

As to your question, David:

My only real concerns are whether we get the April/May Ortiz or the Ortiz who ranked in the top five in home runs and RBIs the rest of the way, whether Papelbon has fewer heart-attack moments on his way to 40 saves and whether Bard is ready to be an elite set-up man without as many ups and downs as his rookie year.

Otherwise, I'm excited by the huge defensive upgrades that have been made at SS, 3B, LF and CF (if you believe UZR that Ellsbury isn't that great in CF, everyone seems to agree that he's very good in LF) and aren't nearly as worried about the offense and particularly about the power in the lineup. Beltre in particular should benefit enormously by the move, and so should Cameron. I can easily see 55-60 homers out of those two, which is what you'd hope for from Lowell + Bay. So what's the problem?

The only real problem is if Ortiz is a black hole of suckitude. He has to carry his share of the offense - a lower share than in the heyday of Papi/Manny - or they may have to overpay to get Adrian Gonzales. This risk is the reason why I'd like them to keep Lowell around as long as possible as a hedge, or possibly as part of a DH platoon. But I'm afraid they'll trade Lowell by the third week in March.

[Chalupa]

Chan Ho Park signs with Yankees

Great pick up for the Yanks. $1.2 million, plus $300,000 worth of incentives. Phillies offered him $3 million for one year. That's a huge pay cut. Park needs to fire his agent.

[Matthew]

Dan, I don't see Beltre & Cameron hitting more that 50 fifty home runs, and at 37, I see Cameron going on the down slide. It's pitching that's going win for Boston this year, though I do not have the highest confidence in Papelbon at the moment, his meltdown against the Angels in too fresh in my mind.

Ghosty: The Yankee outfield flat-out stinks. Really? Gardner/Winn? Move your best outfielder, Granderson to left, who is also coming off a bad year? Swisher in right? A 35 year old Jeter at shortstop? I'm not seeing it for the Yankees this year -- and hey! I'm completely unbiased about the whole thing!

[Dan Gould]

Matthew, I can see where you are coming from but Cameron has been awfully consistent in terms of home runs and is coming to a more favorable park. Taking into account park effects ought to at least counter any age decline. I'm very optimistic about Beltre at Fenway and out of Safeco. I think 30 is very realistic, even though he won't have the BA or OBP that Bay had, I do think the combination will offset Bay overall. And it doesn't take that much, because its a virtual certainty that Beltre outhomers Lowell. Lowell was under 20 the last couple of years. I can't imagine that a healthy Beltre playing half his games at Fenway can't hit at least 25.

As to Papelbon, one positive is that he recognizes that he allowed too many baserunners and he's also said that he got away from the splitter last season and plans to resume throwing it. I never understood why he stopped and started throwing a slider that wasn't so great and then practically stuck with the fastball exclusively. So I hope he'll get his shit together again and since its Spring, I can't help but be extremely optimistic that he will.

Pitching, defense and 3 run homers. Color me Earl Weaver!

[Dan Gould]

Big Papi is lookin' good:

I have no idea if it will help his bat speed or not but he clearly took his conditioning seriously this winter.

[Brad]

Chan Ho Park signs with Yankees

Great pick up for the Yanks. $1.2 million, plus $300,000 worth of incentives. Phillies offered him $3 million for one year. That's a huge pay cut. Park needs to fire his agent.

This happens so often that you would think players would learn but they never do.

I also happen to think that the Phillies caught lightning in a bottle with him last year. Can't see him posting those kinds of numbers again.

Edited February 22, 2010 by Brad

[Dan Gould]

I just caught a glimpse of a guilty-pleasure movie: Burnt Offerings, which apparently was a significant inspiration for Stephen King in conceiving The Shining. When I was a kid, the chauffeur always freaked me out. That is, whenever I could ignore the fact that he looked like Kent Tekulve.

[Dave James]

Kent Tukulve, the original UnderArmer.

Dan, vis a vis your Pitchers and Catchers post from February 18th, I see the catcher, but I'm missing the pitchers. Help me out.

[Dan Gould]

You're not seeing them? First photo is Lackey & Wakefield, second is Lester delivering a pitch.

[Dave James]

I know. Where are the pitchers?

[Dan Gould]

Where?

Uh ... Fort Myers, FL.

[Dave James]

Dan,

You must've lost something off your fastball. I'm just trying to get under your skin early. After all, you were on hiatus when the Yankees won the series and you never even called to congratulate me. I think I need a hug.

[Dan Gould]

Well I figured there was some subtext to your question, but its a pretty foolish one. With Lackey sliding into the number 3 spot, its obvious that the Red Sox have superior pitching, 1-12, to the champions of Williamsport-in-the-Bronx.

[ghost of miles]

Ghosty: The Yankee outfield flat-out stinks. Really? Gardner/Winn? Move your best outfielder, Granderson to left, who is also coming off a bad year? Swisher in right? A 35 year old Jeter at shortstop? I'm not seeing it for the Yankees this year -- and hey! I'm completely unbiased about the whole thing!

I'm just not that worried about the outfield. Swisher's defense is only so-so but he has power and a great spirit. (Again, though, that's something else I'll miss about Damon...the spirit he brought to the team, in addition, obviously, to his talent.) Granderson's HR numbers will almost certainly = last year (or go even higher) and his RBI production will go up...plus I'll bet anything he hits much more in the area of .275 than .249 this year. In terms of fielding I think Gardner is as good as Granderson...either way, we'll have strong defense in center and in left this year. (Anyways, Gardner/Winn is just holding down LF until Carl Crawford gets there in 2011. ) What with the offensive production of the infield, I think we're in good shape. Boston's adding Lackey was huge and might make them the team to beat this year in the AL East, but NY will be competing with them neck-and-neck. As for Jeter, sure, the aging of the Core 4 is a big issue, as Jeter, Pettite and Rivera will all be extremely difficult if not impossible to replace (Jesus Montero makes me less concerned about Posada's imminent departure from the scene). All the more reason I'd love to see NY go all the way again this year and give those guys a two-peat in the twilight of their careers. If that doesn't happen, well, 2009 was magical--one of THE most magical seasons I've ever experienced as a Yankees fan--and would make a pretty nice championship punctation point in and of itself.

Edited February 23, 2010 by ghost of miles

[ghost of miles]

I think I need a hug.

Dave, in lieu of a hug, please accept this sweet little 2009 flashback from me.

On a tribute note, Jeter passes Gehrig. I feel lucky to have seen Jeter play as long as he has already--he, Rivera, Pettite and Posada all rank with the Yankee all-time greats. And they're class acts to boot. Jeter and Rivera definitely end up in the HoF, Pettite's certainly got a shot at it (hell, his postseason record alone gives him at least a calling card IMO) and Posada might crack it as well. All homegrown talent, too.

Edited February 23, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Dave James]

David,

Thanks. I needed that.

[ghost of miles]

David,

Thanks. I needed that.

Just consider me on call, free of charge--I've got lots more in my little black bag where that came from.

So Matthew, pardon my being so AL East-centric...who's got a shot at keeping up with the Mariners in the AL West in 2010?

[Matthew]

David,

Thanks. I needed that.

Just consider me on call, free of charge--I've got lots more in my little black bag where that came from.

So Matthew, pardon my being so AL East-centric...who's got a shot at keeping up with the Mariners in the AL West in 2010?

I do not think the Mariners are a shoe-in by any means. The 4 & 5 starters are not anything special, and the closer, to my mind, is still open to questions. There is also a lack of power in the lineup, which was a major problem last year, though Milton Bradley might have a good year(??!!??). I also wonder if the Mariners are down by 5+ games at the trading deadline, if Cliff Lee stays around. As you can see, I'm not completely sold on the Mariners, and the Angles are still the team to beat. Any team managed by Mike Scioscia is going to be tough. I wind up my business trip north of Seattle, so I can check out the local enthusiasm. I'm also thinking of driving to Peoria, AZ to catch some spring training games. Even though I have my doubts, I know the Mariners are going to kick some rear ends this year. Anything less than the playoffs will be a disappointment.

This is what I remember of the 2009 World Champions...

:) :) :) :) :) :)

Edited February 23, 2010 by Matthew