Guy Berger

Anybody willing to actually dig into their sampling methodology? Not saying it isn't legit but before I take these results seriously, there are major selection issues that need to be explained in detail. Guy

In contrast to all the fat American (and non-American) jazz fans? Guy

Interesting! Thanks, BM. Guy

Possible, but my understanding is that companies that get bought out by private equity firms tend to outperform (after going public again) those that don't. Guy

I ordered three cds from jazzloft: Mal Waldron, Seagulls of Kristiansund Muhal Richard Abrams, Hearinga Suite Henry Threadgill, Spirit of Nuff Nuff Given the impending implosion at EMI, I also made another mass purchase of their CDs: Adderley, Cannonball Cannonball in Europe Adderley, Cannonball Fiddler on the Roof Adderley, Cannonball At the Lighthouse Basie, Count Atomic Basie Blakey, Art Three Blind Mice, Vol 1 Blakey, Art Witch Doctor Blakey, Art Roots and Herbs Brooks, Tina True Blue Byrd, Donald Electric Byrd Byrd, Donald Ethiopian Knights Cherry, Don Symphony for Improvisers Clark, Sonny Leapin' and Lopin' Coleman, Ornette New York in Now Coles, Johnny Little Johnny C Dolphy, Eric Illinois Concert Ellington, Duke 1969: All-Star White House Tribute Green, Grant Grant's First Stand Green, Grant I Want to Hold Your Hand Green, Grant Born to Be Blue Hancock, Herbie The Prisoner Hancock, Herbie Inventions and Dimensions Hubbard, Freddie Breaking Point Hutcherson, Bobby San Francisco Hutcherson, Bobby Now! Jones, Thad/Mel Lewis Consummation Jordan, Clifford & John Gilmore Blowin' in from Chicago Konitz, Lee Alone Together Konitz, Lee Another Shade of Blue Konitz, Lee Konitz Meets Mulligan Little, Booker 4 and Max Roach McLean, Jackie A Fickle Sonance McLean, Jackie Action McLean, Jackie Bluesnik Mitchell, Blue The Thing to Do Morgan, Lee Live at the Lighthouse Pearson, Duke The Right Touch Quebec, Ike Blue and Sentimental Quebec, Ike Complete 45 Sessions Rollins, Sonny Volume 1 Silver, Horace Jody Grind Taylor, Cecil Love for Sale Turrentine, Stanley That's Where It's At

Daily Telegraph Enjoy that last set of RVGs and Connoisseurs, because there won't be many more of them.

The feeling I get is that the bust is going to come with defaulted mortgages, as the silly deals that people were offered to get them to buy what they couldn't afford reach the stage of the more realistic conditions that should have been attached from the start and there ain't enough profit in the price rises to take out another silly mortgage to cover the debt. In that sort of scenario, and I gather it's huge, there seem to be few hiding places. MG But the truth is that the mortgage problem is not that big.* Adjustable-rate subprime mortgages are only a small fraction of the overall US mortgage market, and while the delinquency rates have jumped up, they aren't astronomical. (I think they are in the 10-15% range.) For other parts of the mortgage market -- fixed-rate subprime, alt-A, jumbo, and conforming -- delinquency rates are much, much lower.** Guy *Obviously if you are a family that can't cover such a mortgage, or a firm that relies on brokering them, you have a big problem. I mean the macro sense. **Some of these sectors (alt-A, fixed-rate subprime) have "died" in the sense that few if any new loans are being issued, but there are no mass deliquencies.

Well... the thing is, we are mostly talking about assets that, while difficult to sell at face value, are very unlikely to default. (Even subprime-based ones.) So it seems to me that at worst, these vulture funds will be able to redeem them at maturity. That is, assuming that the vultures aren't financing the purchases through heavy borrowing. On the other hand, you are right -- these vultures could find that in the short term prices will continue to fall, making them wish they had waited longer before buying. Guy

Honestly, if I had the money and the cojones, I would pour money into illiquid-and-undervalued-but-highly-rated assets too. The Buffett quote near the bottom is hilarious, IMHO.

Funny, I've been absorbing Clem's abuse for years, and nobody objected then. Must be because he insists on calling me "Alfie." I think there's a difference between a thread which through mutual consent escalates into an insult-laced catfight (which is my recollection of said "abuse") and a thread started for the sole purpose of trashing another board member. Personally I like most of Clem's contributions to the board, though not the aggressive/confrontational approaches he occasionally takes. Anyway, I think Jim A should lock or delete this thread. Guy

I haven't read it, but it looks interesting. I'll put it on my queue. Guy

MG, I must say that for a "layman" you have very keen economic intuition. 1) The conventional wisdom on the end of WW2 is that the American economy, which had been geared very strongly toward wartime production, experienced a sharp downturn due to the fact that all those resources had to be shifted back toward civilian production. 2) Immigration is an interesting suggestion, but my knowledge the general pattern of immigration history in the US is: huge flows from the 1840s to 1924, then an institution of very restrictive quotas, and then a gradual loosening of those restrictions since WW2. I don't think immigration flows can explain business cycles, though you are right that large immigration flows or swings could have effects on per-capita GDP. 3) As far as Native Americans, MG brings up a good point. I have no clue how the 19th century GDP numbers were calculated, but I am guessing that once Native Americans "entered" the US economy they may have pushed down average per capita GDP levels. On the other hand, economists have trouble accounting for unofficial transactions, so maybe they are underrepresented. Finally, my recollection of Native American history is that their numbers added to the US population (relative to the total US population) were fairly small after 1850, definitely smaller than immigration. But the series was probably more volatile than immigration. 4) Just a standard disclaimer: the further back you go, the more suspicious GDP figures get. (National income accounting only started sometime in the 20th century.) I think it's a good sign that the swings seem to approximate the historical record for the 19th and early 20th century. Guy

I'm not a big fan of posts/threads that "call out" specific board members.

I just did some research on historic US inflation and real GDP growth rates. It's amazing how much better run the US economy has been since WW2 -- the fluctuations used to be really massive (and probably unpleasant). My first post has inflation history.

I just did some research on historic US inflation and real GDP growth rates. It's amazing how much better run the US economy has been since WW2 -- the fluctuations used to be really massive (and probably unpleasant). A second post has real GDP per capita growth rates. Guy

Also, "Minor's Holiday" (though the version from the Cafe Bohemia is better). Guy

1) I actually spoke to my local post office. Their story is that the mailman was putting my mail in my mailbox, then someone (unknown, the post office is investigating) was putting it back out. So the post office stopped delivering my mail and labelled me as no longer living there. 2) My apartment complex claims that they have only one mailman, who has a name I will not reveal here, and that he is the only guy who has access to the mailboxes. So they don't understand what happened, but will talk to him tomorrow. 3) I actually got mail today, presumably due to calling the post office. 4) However, according to the post office, they have no clue what happened to the mail which was supposed to arrive in the interim. The best I can hope for is that someone returned to sender. Lost in the ether, I suppose. Moral of the story: if you don't get mail for two days in a row, call the post office asap to get this shit resolved. Guy

It would be strange as the mailboxes are very clearly labeled with numbers, but I suppose anything can happen. Guy

I just called the post office's "customer service" line, where they assured me "they take this kind of thing very seriously". I will supposedly get a call tomorrow. This should be interesting... Guy

Oddly enough, I have not received any mail (aside from one bit of junk mail I addressed to residents of my apartment) since last Friday. This includes a magazine I usually get on Saturdays and a Netflix movie that was supposed to arrive on Saturday. This has happened to me once before -- about a year and a half ago -- and it lasted for (I think) two weeks. At the time, unlike now, I was not living in a large apartment complex. Nor had I moved recently at the time. Normally I would worry about identity theft, but none of my accounts (netflix, bank, magazine) are indicating a change of address. That said, I would like to resume deliveries of my mail. Tomorrow I plan to call my complex's office to see whether anybody else is having the same problems. But assuming that the answer is "no", do I have any other recourse? I assume that if I call the post office they'll say "how the hell should we know?" Anybody else ever experienced a mail stoppage? Your wisdom would be appreciated. Guy * Other possibilities: 1) While all of the relevant mail is addressed to my new/current abode, I did have mail forwarding set up. Perhaps the Post Office set up some crazy forwarding that sends correctly-addressed mail to my old address? 2) For a while (until the mail stopped) I was getting some of the previous resident's mail. (He has a different name than me.) Perhaps HE set up forwarding and for some reason it's capturing my mail as well?

It seems like some of the restrictions on payday lenders hurt the very people they intend to protect...

Most of you have probably seen (or at least heard of) this incident, but for those of you who haven't, here's the link. I won't spoil the contents, but in front of Queen Elizabeth, John Lennon gives a classic introduction to "Twist and Shout". Guy

Just listened to this for the first time recently. (Part of a big BMG Blue Note binge.) It's phenomenal, one of the very best Jimmy Smith albums I've heard! And I'm not a hardcore JS fan. Guy