2010-2011 Hot Stove Thread

[ghost of miles]

MLB Trade Rumors says Gonzalez is going to Boston after all. Red Sox say they have the parameters of an extension, but no extension at this time will be done.

[zen archer]

MLB Trade Rumors says Gonzalez is going to Boston after all. Red Sox say they have the parameters of an extension, but no extension at this time will be done.

NESN is Flashing Breaking News ...the Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez.....

[Dan Gould]

I was wondering if this could still get done, simply because Heyman was on top of this story all along - well, at least today's events - and he had last tweeted that there was still a chance at least for a trade without an extension in hand.

I also read that Gonzales was scheduled to get on a plane this afternoon - did he do that? Did he stick it out while they kept talking? It sounds like they don't have a deal in place but know they can get one, and then it does make sense to not announce a deal until after opening day, since the luxury tax is predicated on opening day payroll. If they are giving him a big bonus to bring up his 6 million dollar 2011 salary, that would otherwise have an impact on the luxury tax.

I did see that Gammons reported that the fourth player isn't a significant piece, which helps lay to rest my concern that the Red Sox were giving up the kid from LSU that they drafted and signed late last year (draftees can't be traded before the following June, so my fear was that he was included but it wouldn't be announced until they could trade him).

[Quincy]

Some pretty cool overlays showing how Adrian's PETCO fly outs become HRs in Fenway.

[ghost of miles]

I was wondering if this could still get done, simply because Heyman was on top of this story all along - well, at least today's events - and he had last tweeted that there was still a chance at least for a trade without an extension in hand.

I also read that Gonzales was scheduled to get on a plane this afternoon - did he do that? Did he stick it out while they kept talking? It sounds like they don't have a deal in place but know they can get one, and then it does make sense to not announce a deal until after opening day, since the luxury tax is predicated on opening day payroll. If they are giving him a big bonus to bring up his 6 million dollar 2011 salary, that would otherwise have an impact on the luxury tax.

Several hours ago there were reports that the limo driver for Gonzalez was tweeting that he had taken AG back to the hotel, not to the airport, which helped fuel speculation that negotiations were still going on. And your supposition about the luxury tax is in line with the reports I was coming across right after the news broke.

Edited December 6, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Tim McG]

Jason Werth goes to the Nationals [um...huh?] for crazy money: $126 MILLION dollars and for seven years.

And what were you all saying about how the players are not responsible for the hikes in ticket prices...? Really?

Yer dreamin', Boyz.

It is all about the greed [WAY too much money for players] and that is what drives ticket prices, concessions, sports items, parking, etc through the freakin' roof.

Edited December 6, 2010 by GoodSpeak

[Dan Gould]

Thanks Eric that was just what I was hoping someone could do. I had seen his spray chart for Petco and figured about a dozen fly outs would fly out of Fenway. Whatever the mix of increased HRs and 2Bs the guy is sure to rake at Fenway. Didn't I see that he Slugged over .900 when hitting to LF? My god, he should slug about .300 points higher playing half his game at Fenway when he goes with the pitch.

On top of that, its not like he doesn't have pull power, too. Lots of games at the Little League Field in the Bronx, Camden Yards and Toronto, all of which play well for lefties who pull the ball.

[ghost of miles]

Yes, that chart makes Fenway look pretty Little League itself for Mr. Gonzalez.

[ghost of miles]

Interesting update on the Cliff Lee situation: Tim Brown reporting that Lee has said a six-year offer from Texas brings him back. I don't think there's any question that the Yankees will offer him six; the question is whether or not Texas will extend past their reported five-year limit. My guess is they'll come up with some way to do that... and it would confirm my feeling all along that Mr. Lee is going to stay with the Rangers. If that's the case, the Yankees better hope that (1) Andy Pettitte definitely comes back (2) Ivan Nova blossoms quickly into a reliable/good starter (3) Phil Hughes learns how to get batters with two strikes out (4) AJ Burnett reverts to .500 form . Frankly, that's an awful lot of hoping.

AL East is Boston's for the taking IMO, Dan.

Edited December 6, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Dan Gould]

Boston still has too many pitching question marks, from every member of the bullpen outside of Bard to Beckett and Lackey in the rotation, to be favorites.

[Dave James]

If the Yankees lose the Lee sweepstakes, I don't think they have any choice but to make a play for Zack Grienke. It's going to cost them just about everything they have left in their farm system and Grienke is certainly no sure thing in the ant under a mean kid's magnifying glass atmosphere of New York City, but if they're going to keep up, what other choice do they have? As David points out, there are just too many "iffy" pitching things that have to go the Yankees' way if they are going to stay competitive. The chance of all those breaking in their favor is pretty slim. For cryin' out loud, we're three months away from Spring training and I'm already getting verklempt.

Edited December 6, 2010 by Dave James

[Dan Gould]

Jason Werth goes to the Nationals [um...huh?] for crazy money: $126 MILLION dollars and for seven years.

And what were you all saying about how the players are not responsible for the hikes in ticket prices...? Really?

Yer dreamin', Boyz.

It is all about the greed [WAY too much money for players] and that is what drives ticket prices, concessions, sports items, parking, etc through the freakin' roof.

Aren't we missing a piece of evidence here? The announcement is about the signing. They haven't said anything about ticket increases (and I'm pretty sure the Nationals have among the lowest ticket prices in the majors).

Why is it "WAY too much money for players"? Did Werth pull out a gun and demand that ridiculous contract? (Ridiculous due to its length and who is getting it - an OK player on the wrong side of 30, not to the general principle of players getting what they can in an open market.)

The reality that Timmy is too blind to see is that concessions and parking and ticket prices are a fraction of the money that MLB makes.

Contracts started rising in large part because of the money MLB started making from cable networks buying rights to national broadcasts. Then there is the fact that certain teams like Boston and New York own the cable stations that broadcast the team's games - a huge money-maker that has everything to do with money available for salaries (note that NY, Boston and the Mets are usually the top three for payroll and each own their broadcast partners) and nothing to do with concessions or tickets or parking.

The fact is that MLB has swimming in cash ever since it recovered from the '94 strike. Why on earth shouldn't the players get their share? That's what I can't figure out - Timmy is such a strong Democrat and proud member of the CA Teacher's Union and yet he has no brotherly love for fellow union members, if they end up making huge salaries. Maybe its the combination of collectively-bargained rights like minimum salaries, arbitration and free agency after six years with the operation of a free market when players reach free agency. Or maybe its good old Democratic knee-jerk hatred/resentment of the wealthy.

Whatever it is, Timmy doesn't have a clue.

Edited December 6, 2010 by Dan Gould

[JSngry]

Now that their Frank Howard is gone and the Nationals no longer have to pay tribute to the 60s Senators, can somebody put a bug in their ear to get away from that swirl-W that conjures visions of perpetual last place?

[ghost of miles]

Jon Heyman tweet from this morning:

buzz is lee wants to stay w/ #rangers. but 1 competing gm said, " steinbrenners aren't going to let lee get away this time.'' #yankees

Um...OK, not sure I buy the "Yankees-will-get-what-they-want" line, esp. since Lee does seem to be saying to the Rangers, "Just give me a six-year offer I can't turn down." But assuming Heyman's source/theory is right, we're looking at NY probably offering a ridiculous contract (6 yrs/150 million or more? Hell, 7 years, if they're that determined to get him?) in order to sign a 32-year-old pitcher who actually wanted to play somewhere else but just couldn't say no to a bigger pile of cash. I don't really see that working out well for NY. Although I'm glad we didn't give up Jesus Montero to get Lee this past summer, I think at the time he was thoroughly jazzed about going to the Yankees, and then he discovered that he liked Texas a great deal. After his half-season with the Rangers, I have to wonder if Lee will feel as if he's selling his soul to go pitch for the Yankees. I do not think he would have felt that way if he'd arrived in NY in July 2010.

Edited December 6, 2010 by ghost of miles

[paul secor]

Jason Werth goes to the Nationals [um...huh?] for crazy money: $126 MILLION dollars and for seven years.

And what were you all saying about how the players are not responsible for the hikes in ticket prices...? Really?

Yer dreamin', Boyz.

It is all about the greed [WAY too much money for players] and that is what drives ticket prices, concessions, sports items, parking, etc through the freakin' roof.

Aren't we missing a piece of evidence here? The announcement is about the signing. They haven't said anything about ticket increases (and I'm pretty sure the Nationals have among the lowest ticket prices in the majors).

Why is it "WAY too much money for players"? Did Werth pull out a gun and demand that ridiculous contract? (Ridiculous due to its length and who is getting it - an OK player on the wrong side of 30, not to the general principle of players getting what they can in an open market.)

The reality that Timmy is too blind to see is that concessions and parking and ticket prices are a fraction of the money that MLB makes.

Contracts started rising in large part because of the money MLB started making from cable networks buying rights to national broadcasts. Then there is the fact that certain teams like Boston and New York own the cable stations that broadcast the team's games - a huge money-maker that has everything to do with money available for salaries (note that NY, Boston and the Mets are usually the top three for payroll and each own their broadcast partners) and nothing to do with concessions or tickets or parking.

The fact is that MLB has swimming in cash ever since it recovered from the '94 strike. Why on earth shouldn't the players get their share? That's what I can't figure out - Timmy is such a strong Democrat and proud member of the CA Teacher's Union and yet he has no brotherly love for fellow union members, if they end up making huge salaries. Maybe its the combination of collectively-bargained rights like minimum salaries, arbitration and free agency after six years with the operation of a free market when players reach free agency. Or maybe its good old Democratic knee-jerk hatred/resentment of the wealthy.

Whatever it is, Timmy doesn't have a clue.

Yup - If the Nationals are fools enough to pay Werth $126 mil. for 7 years, he'd be a bigger fool not to grab it.

[ghost of miles]

This tweet, fwiw:

Mark FeinsandRT @BobKlap #Yankees heard from friend of Pettitte's that he's def retiring, altho that was three weeks ago. Still waiting on his decision

If that's true, then I think it may be time to go ahead and settle in for a few years of rebuilding, Cliff Lee or no. I'd love to see the Core 4 make one last run at a championship, but even if Lee's added to the rotation next year (which, again, I doubt will happen--I still think he goes to Texas), that leaves us with big question marks after CC and Lee. (Phil Hughes, despite his impressive W-L record in 2010, remains a question mark for me). If it's a no-Lee and no-Pettitte situation, then NY's really in big trouble. One more year of Pettitte would've given us time to develop some more of the pitching prospects in the pipeline, but maybe we're about to lose another pitching heart to a Texas home.

C'est la vie if so--I'm still going to enjoy watching Jeter, Mo and Posada play their final days (but was really hoping we'd get one last chance to see Pettitte, who pitched so well this year when he was healthy). It's been an incredible run, and although I can't see NY slipping back into the kind of mediocrity they wallowed in throughout the 1980s and early 90s, I do think they may be nearing the end of their automatic-playoff-trip era, millions or no millions.

UPDATE: maybe he is coming back after all. Ahhh, the Age of Twitter! It's thrown the rumor cycle into hyperaccelerated overdrive.

Edited December 6, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Neal Pomea]

Now that their Frank Howard is gone and the Nationals no longer have to pay tribute to the 60s Senators, can somebody put a bug in their ear to get away from that swirl-W that conjures visions of perpetual last place?

I've been saying this ever since the Expos moved to Washington! And they should have come up with a new name/mascot anyway, but if you had left it to a vote in this town, they'd likely come up with something offensive like Redskins or childish like Wizards! They shorten these to 'Skins (in honor of our tight connection with what? Trapping?) and Zards.

[Tim McG]

Since Danny is off topic yet again [unions don't negotiate baseball salaries...Teacher Unions don't either] I wouldn't know where to begin.

Player salaries have been increasing ticket prices, concessions prices, etc, etc, ad nauseum, go-back-and-read-it-fer-crissakes-geez for decades.

Edited December 7, 2010 by GoodSpeak

[JSngry]

They shorten these to 'Skins (in honor of our tight connection with what?

Leslie Neilsen?

[Quincy]

UPDATE: maybe he is coming back after all. Ahhh, the Age of Twitter! It's thrown the rumor cycle into hyperaccelerated overdrive.

It really is too much sometimes. You might want to get a neck brace for the next week or 2 so you don't get whiplash.

[ghost of miles]

UPDATE: maybe he is coming back after all. Ahhh, the Age of Twitter! It's thrown the rumor cycle into hyperaccelerated overdrive.

It really is too much sometimes. You might want to get a neck brace for the next week or 2 so you don't get whiplash.

No kidding! Especially since there's now a story out quoting Cashman as saying that Andy told him after the postseason ended that he was leaning towards retirement. If Andy doesn't come back, it's all the more imperative that they land Lee, and I still don't think that's going to happen... I think Lee & his agent are playing the Yankees for as much leverage as they can with Texas. Still, it's nice to dream about a C.C./Lee/Pettitte/Hughes/Burnett rotation for 2011... but I think two fifths of that scenario are not likely to be there. In which case Ivan Nova will be put to the test immediately, and somebody else like Andrew Brackman or Manny Banuelos will have to ramp up quickly for a shot at some MLB starting time. I do not want to see us trade the farm for Zach Greinke, who I think would be seriously vulnerable in the hot lights of NYC.

[Tim McG]

They shorten these to 'Skins (in honor of our tight connection with what?

Leslie Neilsen?

And don't call me Shirley.

[ghost of miles]

So who's allegedly (key word for all Twitter/rumor talk) offering Cliff Lee 7 years? Supposedly not the Yankees, and almost certainly not the Rangers...the Nats?

[JSngry]

Somebody's offering Lee 7 (went to bed earlylast night & am just now waking up, this is the first I've heard of this)? Geez...gotta be the Nationals, no? Those guys are going nuts!

Then again, maybe it's just a lie?

[Dan Gould]

I can only hope this forces the Yankees to 8 years but either way, he'll be in pinstripes. This whole "just give me six years and I'll stay in Texas" is such a pile of BS. If he wants to stay in Texas, really wanted to stay in Texas, he'd negotiate with Texas, get their best offer, and accept it with some statement about how he respects the Yankees but Texas captured his heart last season and he wants to bring a championship there.

But the fact is that he is like any other player who reaches free agency, he wants that extra year, and the one after that, and as much money as he can get. Werth is unlikely to sniff the playoffs anytime soon, think he cares?