2010-2011 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

One other thing.

at least one team would be willing to offer Lee a seven-year deal

Can you be more vague than this "report"? For all anyone knows this could be a Red Sox false-flag operation to spook the Yankees into giving Lee eight years.

I'll believe that the bidding has gone to seven years when there is an actual team attached to the report, and when there are multiple reports saying the same thing.

Remember, these meetings and late July constitute the silly season for baseball rumors. At least 3/4 of what you hear turns out to be crap.

[Tim McG]

OK.

It's official: Luke Scott is a moron.

To wit:

Why right-wing baseball players need to STFU

Edited December 9, 2010 by GoodSpeak

[GA Russell]

Have you guys heard of Luke Scott of the Orioles? I don't pay attention to baseball, and I've never heard of him, but that doesn't mean anything.

Anyway, he goes off on a good rant about hunting and politics here:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Answer-Man-Luke-Scott-talks-Nugent-hunting-and?urn=mlb-292970

[Dave James]

Apparently the Yankees met with Carl Crawford's people over dinner last night. ALthough the smart money still says Crawford will wind up with the Angels, there is some speculation that New York may have both Crawford and Lee in their sights. Others are saying that the interest in Crawford is limited to a back up plan if they aren't able to land Lee. Some of this depends on what Andy Pettitte decides and the need to deal either Curtis Granderson or Nick Swisher, but you know what they say about the Yankees. "What they want, they generally get."

Also, The Nationals are not the team offering Lee a seven year deal. I just wonder if the Tigers aren't lurking in the weeds. They're one of the teams with money to spend.

[ghost of miles]

So the rumored 6 yrs/$140 million Yankees offer-in-the-works to Lee that circulated awhile back turns out to be exactly what they offered him at the winter meetings. Lee's agent has left said meetings, btw. And I just read this in a Lone Star Ball comment thread--not sure if the source is Twitter or not (evidently not, as I just checked Dolgin's Twitter feed), but here goes:

RangersRadioBD Bryan Dolgin

Nolan Ryan says they have requested from Cliff Lee’s agent what it will take to make him a Ranger.

Hold on to your ten-gallon hats, podners! I think we got ourselves a good ol' Western-style shootout on the way...

My guess, btw, is that NY will be willing to up the offer to 6 yrs/150 million but nothing over that. I'd say if Texas simply matches today's NY offer that Lee will remain a Ranger, esp. given the state income tax factor.

Jon Heyman tweet re: expected starting point for Carl Crawford's contract: "somewhere north of Werth." Which isn't to say that I don't think Crawford's worth more than Werth (so to speak)--I think he is. But are we talking at least 8 yrs/135-140 million for a team to land him?

[PHILLYQ]

From what I gather the Yankee interest in Crawford is either a backup plan(No Lee, get Crawford, possibly deal an outfielder for pitching) or an attempt to drive the price up if the Bosox are interested.

The 7 year offer to Cliff Lee is either unfounded rumor or his agent is blowin' smoke- I'll take blowin' smoke.

I saw today that the Jeter deal has a PLAYER option for a 4th year. Big mistake by the Yanks, a geriatric left side of the infield for the next 4 years(I wouldn't have gone more than 2 years with Jeter).

[ghost of miles]

From what I gather the Yankee interest in Crawford is either a backup plan(No Lee, get Crawford, possibly deal an outfielder for pitching)

Yes, that's the CW and I think it's probably right, with the possible plan B an attempt to deal Brett Gardner + prospects to the Royals for Greinke. But as Tyler Kepner points out:

Gardner had as many stolen bases as Crawford, 47, with a better on-base percentage and better advanced defensive metrics.

...and he cost us what, $450,000 or something? Plus KC will want a LOT for Greinke...plus this is CW as well, but who's to say how well Greinke will perform in NYC? Lee's five years older, and that's certainly significant, but I have no doubts about his ability to handle NY pressure. Greinke is a huge question mark in that regard.

[ghost of miles]

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports saying that Lee will make a decision before the end of the weekend. I still bet that he signs with Texas, as long as they offer him six years and a sum within 10 million of the Yankees' offer. The guy was out hunting with Mitch Moreland and Tommy Hunter the other day... I think he's a good ol' boy at heart who wants to stay with the Rangers as long as they offer him something roughly close to what NY's offering.

If Texas offers 6 yrs/130 million and NY then significantly ups their offer (to at least 150), then it's a whole 'nother ballgame. I do think Lee goes to NY if Texas doesn't come around on the 6-year angle.

[ghost of miles]

Several commenters on Ranger & Yankee sites making jokes about Lee holding an hour-long ESPN press conference this weekend and announcing either

(1) "I've decided to take my talents to North Arlington"

or

(2) "I've decided to take my talents to the South Bronx"

...and another scenario involving the teams' hats sitting on the table in front of Lee, and Lee indicating his choice by picking up a hat (and executing several fake-out pick-up gestures before actually taking one).

Jokes aside, now there's a bit of buzz that Ryan's query to Lee's agent is their counter-offer...that they're not making a formal one. Interesting strategy, if true.

Update: Oops, there goes the Yankees' Plan B:

Red Sox will sign Crawford to 7 yr/$142 million contract

Dan, I know you weren't all that excited about the possibility of Boston's landing Crawford when it was discussed several days ago, but what do you think now? The Bosox' offense is becoming so potent that you may not need a bullpen.

Edited December 9, 2010 by ghost of miles

[ghost of miles]

The more I think about Ryan and the Rangers' "you tell us what it takes" parry, the more I think it's throwing the dice completely on Cliff Lee really, really wanting to come back next year as a Ranger. And I do believe that Lee wants to--but I'm not so sure it overwhelmingly trumps everything, including acquiescence in basically shutting down marketplace bidding for him. If I'm Lee, I'm thinking I tell Texas it will take a match or more than what the Yankees just offered him. But frankly, I don't think he should tell them anything, since they just essentially threw down the negotiating gauntlet like that.

EDIT: some reaction over at Lone Star Ball:

So how will Cliff Lee and his agent respond to Nolan?

a) It will take 6 years/$135M (discount from NY offer due to taxes)

b) It will take 6 years/$140M (forget tax discount, if you match NY, I’m yours)

c) it will take 6 years/$150M (knowing the Yankees will get up at least that high if given the opportunity to up their offer)

d) the amount it will take is yet to be determined. What is your current offer?

by willamos2 on Dec 8, 2010 8:07 PM PST reply actions

i fear they will say c)

but d) may be the most likely. Why would they want to end the negotiations prematurely?

by willamos2 on Dec 8, 2010 8:08 PM PST up reply actions

Probably D...

with B hinted at. But then he’d just go shop it to the Yankees.

by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 8, 2010 8:10 PM PST up reply actions

best we can hope for is B

by Eric Prince on Dec 8, 2010 8:12 PM PST up reply actions

d

by jonathan rigby on Dec 8, 2010 8:54 PM PST up reply actions

Edited December 9, 2010 by ghost of miles

[Dave James]

Wow. Some team in the AL East not named the Red Sox is starting to fall behind. If said team does not sign Cliff Lee, you can note the time and the date as to when the new era of Yankee mediocrity officially began.

Addendum: NYT is reporting that the Yankees offered Lee six years and $140,000,000. At those levels, I have to say, who much gives a rip about state taxes?

Now that Crawford is gone, you wonder if the Angels will become an 11th hour suitor.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Dave James

[ghost of miles]

I'm reading some reports that $144 million was the figure we actually offered to Lee. I still think Texas makes a big run for it--Nolan Ryan will get off his old-school high-horse and agree to six years. The question is how much money they're willing to throw at Lee. I think part of Ryan's game is trying to force Lee into a corner with some sort of "good ol' boy man-of-his-word" tact, in that he wants Lee to now come to him with terms--which, if he agrees to them, Lee will then have to accept, man-of-honor and all that. (That's why I think Lee should come back with terms that at least equal the Yankees' and perhaps even surpass what they offered.) I don't know, I could be reading it all wrong, but that's my take on it right now. And if I'm Lee's agent, I think I'm back on the phone to the Nats and whoever else expressed strong/serious interest at the winter meetings. As one of the news write-ups said, if Lee's approach the entire time was simply to get the best contract he could from Texas, then maybe Ryan's ploy will work. Otherwise it's pretty much an invitation to simply walk away and say, "Get back to us when you're ready to make an offer."

[Dan Gould]

Amazing that they would make such a move and that things would be so quiet before it happened. And to think I was really hoping that they would go get Magglio Ordonez on a one or two year deal, figuring his bat would play very well at Fenway, and he'd even out the lineup, and most importantly, on a one or two year deal, he becomes Papi Insurance. If the big guy falls completely apart, he steps right in as everyday DH.

Obviously any team is improved when it adds a Carl Crawford. Among the negatives I see:

Bit of a left-ward tilt to the lineup (all three OFs, Ortiz, Gonzalez) in a division with some pretty tough lefty starters (and one great one about to join the division). I heard Gonzalez hit .400 against lefties last season - which is too good to check - but how does Crawford do?

Its a long contract, counter to what Theo has preached all these years. Its basically a Yankee move - only this time they missed the playoffs and went out and acquired the two best position players available.

I can never again use the "You can't beat the Yankees and their money, they get what they want" whine ever again. Probably a distinction without a difference, as everyone else already equates the Yankees and Red Sox anyway, but this confirms it.

I do like the idea that upon hearing this news, Girardi, Cashman and both Steinbrenners crapped their pants. But that momentary sense of discomfort and "what-the-hell?" will go away, and it is now inevitable that the Yankees will ignore their stated limitations and do whatever it takes, money and C.C. Sabathia's feelings be damned, to land Cliff Lee. Its an absolute certainty - they can't watch the Red Sox make these two huge offensive upgrades and do nothing. If Lee somehow eludes their grasp - which he won't - you'll see a move for Grienke instead.

For all the offensive power (no one cares that V-Mart is gone now, huh?) the team still has three pitchers with question marks, little depth behind them (22 year old Doubront and who else? the Japanese pitcher will be a year off of TJ surgery and not close yet, and Michael Bowden is no ones idea of a prospect anymore) and equal question marks in the bullpen.

So, yeah, its impossible not to be excited when you sign a Carl Crawford when he's 29. I can only imagine what Zen and Tom R. are waking up to in the middle of Red Sox Nation.

[Brad]

I think it's a great move for the Sox and I do love the fact that the Yankees will now be desperate to get Lee. Can't wait to hear the Yankees fans wailing today on WFAN. This move must make Lee's agent jump for joy.

However, as Dan noted, winning the title is no lead pipe cinch.

Red Sox ownership must have deep pockets, what with buying Liverpool a couple of months ago.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Brad

[BERIGAN]

Rays, Bluejays, and Orioles fans, welcome to being spoilers in April!

Can't blame the Red Sox at all for getting him, but the other teams might as well trade everyone off their big league teams for prospects, no winning, no sniff of the W.C. for years, and that's sad.

Wow. Some team in the AL East not named the Red Sox is starting to fall behind. If said team does not sign Cliff Lee, you can note the time and the date as to when the new era of Yankee mediocrity officially began.

Addendum: NYT is reporting that the Yankees offered Lee six years and $140,000,000. At those levels, I have to say, who much gives a rip about state taxes?

Now that Crawford is gone, you wonder if the Angels will become an 11th hour suitor.

I was thinking not only are there no state taxes in Texas, there likely wouldn't be city taxes to worry about either. So did some digging....it gets a bit complicated....and this is just based on 5 years!

Texas of course does not have a state income tax. So assuming Lee moves residency from Arkansas, which has a top individaul tax rate of seven percent, to somewhere in Texas, he'd save a significant amount of money over living in New York.

How much? Well, it depends on if his residency is in New York City or just in the state.

We called up Robert Raiola, an accountant with Van Duyne, Behrens & Co. whose clients include athletes. We told him to assume that Lee signs a five-year contract worth $120 million with the Yankees and then becomes a New York state or New York City resident.

Raiola told us that if Lee was signed by the Yankees and moved to New York state, he'd pay New York state approximately $10.76 million over five years. If he lived in New York City -- he'd have to pay a 3.65 percent city tax on top of the top state income tax rate of 8.97 percent, which means he'd pay a combined $15.13 million over five years to New York City and state.

So how much less could the Rangers offer Lee and still have Lee make the same amount of money?

On the assumption that Lee would live in Texas, he'd pay no state income tax. He would however have to pay the so-called Jock Taxes, an attempt by cities and states to fill their coffers during tough times by imposing non-resident income taxes when players come to town.

Raiola said Lee would pay the Jock Tax on approximately 75 percent of the team's 81 road games each year, which would be 60 days out of the

225 days worked by Lee each season. Raiola says those Jock Taxes then work out to $2.25 million over the course of a five-year contract. Lee would pay Jock Taxes as a Yankee, but Raiola assumes that those taxes would offset his liability to New York state or city.

So assuming the Yankees offer Lee a five-year, $120 million contract and he establishes residency in New York, Raiola says the Rangers could offer him $111.5 million (if he takes up residency in Texas) and it will be the same deal.

If Lee were to live in New York City versus somewhere in Texas, the Rangers could offer a five-year, $107.2 million deal against the Yanks' $120 million and it would work out to the same net dollars for Lee, Raiola said.

More

Edited December 9, 2010 by BERIGAN

[zen archer]

So, yeah, its impossible not to be excited when you sign a Carl Crawford when he's 29. I can only imagine what Zen and Tom R. are waking up to in the middle of Red Sox Nation.

Hey , I wanted Crawford from the start and I was NOT sad to see V-Mart go.

I still can't believe the local sports media was all upset over letting Martinez walk.....the other thing

about signing Crawford is that it's also insurance in case Ellsbury re injures himself or when his comtract

is up brcause as you know Bor-ass will be chasing huge money again as always.

Edited December 9, 2010 by zen archer

[Dave James]

Yanks have apparently bumped their offer for Lee to seven years. Welcome to the zany, crazy, whacky A-Rod world of New York baseball. In just a few years, their starting line-up could average 40 years of age. Wonderful. Sometimes it's awfully tough to be a Yankee fan.

[JSngry]

Seven years for Lee is nuts, I don't care who pays it.

[Dan Gould]

I've realized one advantage of having so many lefties (including two catchers who are both switch-hitters plus another switch-hitter, Jed Lowrie, as the utility infielder): In their own yard, the Yanks ought to be afraid to throw a righty against Boston. Lots of chances to loft a flyball beyond the little league fence in right.

I'd still worry about facing two dominant lefties in Lee and Sabathia in an LCS. Great pitching can nullify great hitting in the post-season.

But I agree it should be tough keeping the Red Sox out of the playoffs, crazy shit notwithstanding. Just when it looked like the sell-out streak was running out of steam, with the players currently under contract, the streak could probably go on twice as long as it already has, and they broke the previous record held by Cleveland early last year, iirc.

[Brad]

Seven years for pitchers is, indeed, nuts but it shows that they believe that they need him to fight off the Sox. I assume they will get an insurance policy.

[JSngry]

Nuts it may be, but the Rangers are dispatching their peoples directly to Arkansas: http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101209&content_id=16290334&vkey=news_tex&c_id=tex

In all honesty, at this point, I'd tell him to take the seven, good luck, and then start going after Greinke with full force and sincerity.

Enough!

[Quincy]

Bit of a left-ward tilt to the lineup (all three OFs, Ortiz, Gonzalez) in a division with some pretty tough lefty starters (and one great one about to join the division). I heard Gonzalez hit .400 against lefties last season - which is too good to check - but how does Crawford do?

It really is heavily left-handed, though that can be fixed in 2012 if they feel the need (or earlier than that I suppose). One thing I noticed about Crawford's splits is that for the past few years he doesn't steal vs. LHP at all. When he was younger he stole no matter which arm was on the mound. So I'm not sure if this because a) lefty samples are small b) despite more experience he now can't read lefty pitchers (?!) - this doesn't make sense c) don't slice & dice numbers stat-boy. It could be as simple as as the Rays became a better team men were on base more often, thus SB opportunities didn't happen as often (also he batted 3rd some last year). I dunno.

Because lefty samples are small it's often advised to look at the past 2 years combined (and keep rolling them as you look back - this is also true of RISP btw). Gonzalez has a .440 lifetime slugging average vs. lefties and when you consider where he played that's alright so it's not like he's helpless. Crawford's numbers look better if you toss the 1st 2 years out when he was so young. Crawford is an exciting sign for the next 3-4 years, after that you have wonder how he'll age. Tim Raines had a lot of value as an older player as he got on a lot. Crawford hasn't shown that degree of discipline.

Edited December 9, 2010 by Quincy

[ghost of miles]

Tweets via Michael Kay and Buster Olney that the Yankees think they have lost or are "conceding" Lee to the Rangers. As somebody remarked over at Lone Star Ball, if he turned down a 7-yr/$160 million contract to stay in Texas, he'll be a demigod there (and a well-paid one, I'm sure).

Which will leave this offseason looking like a total bust for the Yankees at this point--esp. since the buzz is that Andy's more likely to come back if they do sign Lee. I wish Cashman had made another trip to Arkansas, but if Lee really wanted at heart to stay in Texas, there's not much more NY could have done in the way of offering him years and money. Anyway, without Lee, I think the best NY can hope for is AL East wildcard, barring another not-gonna-happen season of catastrophic injuries to the Bosox.

EDIT: I think Lee's agent did a brilliant job, btw, of leveraging the Yankees' bucks to get Lee a better deal from Texas than Nolan Ryan was initially willing to give. If the 6 yrs/$135 million number that's being bandied about on Lone Star Ball is accurate, that's 1-2 more years and $25 million more than Ryan wanted to spend, and more than enough to make Cliff Lee a very, very wealthy man, esp. with the lack of state income tax and all that.

Edited December 10, 2010 by ghost of miles

[JSngry]

I'm not believing anything until I hear it with my own two eyes, but...although I will be glad to have him, if he does stay, I'm still needing some convincing that the guy's got that "hunker down" mentality over the course of a full season. And I still think that Greinke (a Lutheran name if ever there was one!) would be a better long-term investment, simply due to age and health. Of course, with pitchers, it's a total crap-shoot no matter what.

Either way - Cliff Lee owes us two World Series victories. Definitely one. No matter how that karmic kaleidoscope plays out, that debt must be paid!

[Dave James]

All the Yankees had to do last Summer was sweeten the pot just a little and Lee would already be in pinstripes. I hope when they do their post-mortems, someone is held accountable for that decision. All we have to show for this off season is the signing of a 37 year-old over the hill shortstop for twice as much and twice as long as he's worth. As I said before, note the time. The descent has begun. Nuclear winter is upon us.