Covid Vaccination Poll Update

[Pim]

Finally! Got my first shot Pfizer today. Second will be at the end of July.

[jazzbo]

Great news!

[Guy Berger]

On 6/4/2021 at 6:13 AM, Dan Gould said:

I think (hope) that everyone is missing just how many people do have natural immunity from having had it. That is the best explanation (IMO) for the vastly lower rates we now see, even though vaccination efforts are running out of willing arms and skeptics (as opposed to the implacably opposed) now are free to run around without masks in most places.

I think that's probably part of it - looking at vaccination rates only without considering prevalence of prior infection leads to underestimates of immunity in the population.

This is true even if vaccination provides better immunity than prior infection.  (Which I believe there is evidence of.)

*However* - I'd be careful about drawing really strong inferences from the current decline in cases until more time passes.  We have positive weather effects (maybe finally winding down as folks crowd into air-conditioned indoor spaces in the South).  There has been a lot of unexplained variation in the ebb and flow of COVID that has defied explanation.

Two more comments:

1) If you look at the states with relatively high and rising caseloads, they are mostly states with low vaccination rates (MO, NV, UT, AR, AZ).  And if you look at the states where very low and falling caseloads, they are mostly states with high vaccination rates (VT, MA, MD, CT, DC).

2) The combination of vaccine and infection immunity is a partial "equalizer" in the near term.  But over time, some areas of the country look set for very low caseloads (due to repeated vaccination) and others look set for endemic infection (due to immunity fading over time). 

  

[JSngry]

I'm already waiting for info about booster shots. Maybe too soon, but still, I want to be ready when the time comes. So, conversation from science, starting when?

[Guy Berger]

4 hours ago, JSngry said:

I'm already waiting for info about booster shots. Maybe too soon, but still, I want to be ready when the time comes. So, conversation from science, starting when?

My understanding based on Israeli data is that vaccine-based immunity is lasting longer than anticipated - ie at least a year.  But that doesn’t take into account the possibility of increasingly evasive variants.

[JSngry]

Yeah, variants. And in the Potential Petri Dish of Unvaccinated America...help me, Rhonda Fleming.

[Guy Berger]

3 hours ago, JSngry said:

Yeah, variants. And in the Potential Petri Dish of Unvaccinated America...help me, Rhonda Fleming.

I’d worry less about that small Petri dish and more about the massive Petri dish of billions of unvaccinated people in developed countries that couldn’t afford to line up vaccine supplies early.  Getting them jabbed is essential to reducing future mutations

[jazzbo]

Absolutely Guy.

[erwbol]

1 minute ago, Serioza said:

in 1986 soviet politburo lied about Chernobyl so now  chinese politburo lying  about covid 19.

This virus almost certainly escaped from a lab in Wuhan.

[JSngry]

"almost certainly" is some bit of an oxymoron, is it not?

8 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

I’d worry less about that small Petri dish and more about the massive Petri dish of billions of unvaccinated people in developed countries that couldn’t afford to line up vaccine supplies early.  Getting them jabbed is essential to reducing future mutations

That too. But we might be unique in having a "significant" portion of the population that can, but won't. Will not.

[erwbol]

5 minutes ago, JSngry said:

"almost certainly" is some bit of an oxymoron, is it not?

An extremely average one.

[JSngry]

Big Tiny Little

[Serioza]

 

[Guy Berger]

15 hours ago, erwbol said:

This virus almost certainly escaped from a lab in Wuhan.

There is a big difference between “it is possible that” and “almost certain”.  (Worth reading this NYT article)

9 hours ago, JSngry said:

"almost certainly" is some bit of an oxymoron, is it not?

That too. But we might be unique in having a "significant" portion of the population that can, but won't. Will not.

Not unique… pre-COVID vaccine skepticism in the US was lower than in many continental European countries.  Maybe it’s different this time, maybe not.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Guy Berger

[erwbol]

Just now, Guy Berger said:

There is a big difference between “it is possible that” and “almost certain”

If you only consume and believe the mainstream media, you wouldn't have taken the possibility seriously until perhaps very recently. The narrative is being aggressively controlled. Knowledgeable people (on the left) were/are being put away as cranks or right wingers and 'white supremacists'.

Sleep tight.

[mjazzg]

I often wonder how the so-called non-mainstream media has the resources to carry out all the investigations that they apparently do, so successfully.  Happy to be enlightened.

[riddlemay]

Call me naïve, call me uninformed, but I can't see what difference it makes--to us in America--whether it escaped from a Chinese lab or a Chinese wet market.

It's not like we have any leverage to impose tighter security precautions either on Chinese labs or wet markets.

Either way, the moral obligation for China to have shared more information sooner is the same. Not that we have much control over that, either.

[JSngry]

I'll call you a realist 

[bogdan101]

If it was engineered in a lab it gives an idea of what exactly they're doing in there; you and me will probably never know either way, but I'm sure some level of government knows pretty well what happened.

[Guy Berger]

3 hours ago, riddlemay said:

Call me naïve, call me uninformed, but I can't see what difference it makes--to us in America--whether it escaped from a Chinese lab or a Chinese wet market.

It's not like we have any leverage to impose tighter security precautions either on Chinese labs or wet markets.

Either way, the moral obligation for China to have shared more information sooner is the same. Not that we have much control over that, either.

Yup

I think there are politicians trying to lever this question toward their agenda, unfortunately, and to some degree it is also feeding into anti-Asian-American racism here ni the US

[Kevin Bresnahan]

The state of Maine is going to have a lottery. Everyone who gets vaccinated can enter. For however many people get vaccinated by July 4th, they are giving away that amount to one lucky vaccinated resident. It's up to almost $900,000 now.

[Guy Berger]

Cases seem to be rising across much of the country due to the Delta variant.  Seems to be worse in relative low vaccination states though seasonal effects may also be playing a role.

If you haven’t gotten vaccinated yet, it’s a good idea to do it ASAP.

The good news is in high vaccination areas caseloads should be lower and less dangerous.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Guy Berger

[Guy Berger]

For example Britain has seen a huge surge in cases but, unlike prior COVID waves, no meaningful pickup in deaths.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Guy Berger

[BillF]

5 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

For example Britain has seen a huge surge in cases but, unlike prior COVID waves, no meaningful pickup in deaths.

Not yet ...

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/09/dread-and-anxiety-among-nhs-staff-as-covid-cases-surge-again

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by BillF

[mjazzg]

The bigger concern is that as community infection rates increase, and we have a government for whom that appears to be policy now, there is a greater likelihood of the virus mutating into new variants.  Once again, previous experience is being ignored as the Kent variant appeared the last time community infection rates got out if control. Government gambling again...