Aggie87

I'm not sure usuality is a word (it's a fuquitous one if it is! ), but the measurement would still be 66/33 in favor of switching for that one isolated decision.

As far as I can tell, your logic is still the same as it would be if you were the person who walked up to the game show with only two doors remaining, and got to pick one of them. Then it's a 50/50 chance. If you were the person standing there the whole time, there's STILL a 66% chance that the car is behind the other door. The other folks here have done alot better job of explaining it already, than I could.

Happy Birthday!

That's not correct, but it's what I was trying to do too, LOL. It's only 50/50 for the guy who walks up at the point where there are two doors left, and he is allowed to pick one of the two doors. For the person who was there when there were 3 doors, his likelihood of winning the car is still better if he switches - by a 2 to 1 margin. It's counterintuitive for sure.

testing the server clock... edit - and it's off by 5 hours or so.

I got it. Thanks. Door A (my initial pick) = 33% chance of car Doors B + C (the ones I didn't pick) = 67% chance of car When Monty opens one of the other doors, it still means my door has a 33% chance, and the remaining door has the 67%. I understood that logic from the beginning, I just wasn't sure I was accepting of it. Thanks Swede & Dan (& Sen. Rockefeller).

Thanks for posting that link, Rod! LOL I think this quote is where I'm tripping up: I keep putting myself into that point of time where the player is asked whether to switch, which isn't the correct logic to use, I guess. But try this: Initially I pick Door A. Monty opens Door C with a goat behind it, leaving Door A or Door B. He lets me choose which one I want. I should switch to Door B, because it gives me a 67% chance of winning. Another person is brought into the studio at that point (without any prior knowledge of this game), and given a choice of Door A or Door B as well. Are his odds different than mine? Why?

I haven't run the simulation, Dan - can't access it from this computer. I also understand the arguments that have been shared here, and they make sense. I'm still saying that Monty's opening of a door with a goat behind it leaves 2 closed doors, one with a car behind it. It seems immaterial which door you chose first, KNOWING that you will again have to choose one of the two doors that are left. The data at that point in time is that you have two closed doors, and a car behind one of them - and that's it. That's what you have to go by AT THAT POINT IN TIME. I'm not arguing that you're wrong. I just am not convinced by the logic, whether it's true or not. Well, if the result is that there are two remaining closed doors, one of which you've picked and one you didn't, there's one with a car behind it and one with a goat. At that point in time there's a 50/50 chance the car is behind your door, is there not?

To me it almost sounds like the paradigm has shifted for this guy - from the "old" days before cell phones, to modern times - and he can't accept it. It's not his place to be a vigilante about it, whether he likes it or not. If you're in a public place (like a train car), you have to accept what society says is acceptable public behavior. And using cell phones in public has become part of that.

"Codes, Codes, get your Codes here! Get 'em while they're hot!!" A8E1 - get 1 free disc A8E2 - get 3 free discs

I understand what both of you are saying, and appreciate the descriptions. But if you KNOW up front that Monty is going to open a door with a goat behind it, then you know that one (goat) door will be eliminated no matter what you pick. Which means that you are really picking one of two doors in the first place, right? Because you KNOW that your choice is going to come down to the door you pick and one other - not two others. And if you are picking one of two, don't you have a 50/50 chance from the outset? Hmmm.

I don't follow the logic in changing doors. Initially you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the door with the car behind it. You pick a door. Then Monty opens one of the other doors to show a goat. Now it's a new ball game, and what happened before is basically irrelevant. There are two doors left, one of which has a car behind it. Monty is giving you a choice between the two doors. You can either keep the door you initially picked, or go with the other. Doesn't that therefore mean there is a 50/50 chance that the car is behind the door you selected - regardless when you picked that door? And there's also a 50/50 chance it's behind the other door. If that's the case, it should make no difference in odds whether you keep your original door or pick the other one.

You should talk to a lawyer about this, seriously. Didn't Aric go to school to be a lawyer in the first place?

Thriller miniseries in 2004:

PM sent on Zorn Film Works 17. Thanks, Erik

I don't care who wins, I'm rooting for Candace Parker!

It's nice that he sought you out as a reputable Christian as well.

In addition to the recently released "Pacific Codex", SW has another Bass Communion release due this summer, titled "Molotov and Haze". Fans of Fripp's soundscapes would enjoy Bass Communion, I think. Artwork: So here's the SW slate for the remainder of the year, as of today: Porcupine Tree - Lightbulb Sun CD/DVD-A - shipping now from PT.com, due out later this month to retail No-Man - Schoolyard Ghosts CD/DVD-A - May Bass Communion - Molotov and Haze - Summer Porcupine Tree - Live Album - some time in 2008 Steven Wilson - Solo Album - 2 cd set - some time in 2008 Steven Wilson - Cover Version single #5 - some time in 2008

Something like this?

Wow, what a GREAT championship game! A game that lived up to the hype, which doesn't happen all that often. Congrats to the Jayhawks and their fans for an amazing comeback at the end of regulation, when it looked like Memphis was well on it's way to the title. Chalmers was as cool as the other side of the pillow (sorry, Stuart Scott!) making that game tying shot. I bet the Tigers are still in shock - you could tell they were dazed in OT, and at a major loss without Dorsey on the court, after he picked up that silly foul.

The culture in those countries is completely different than ours to start with though. I think gun control there is just a symptom of a society that accept and obeys the rules it has in place, moreso than here in the U.S. Northern European countries are generally more homogeneous populations than in the U.S. I think U.S. culture, individual means, lifestyles, and just society in general are much more diverse than in the places you're comparing the U.S. to. Not to mention those are generally socialist countries, comparatively. Not sure if that is part of the difference or just a coincidence.

Keep biting them! The ones that have something to add will stick around, while the floggers can flog off.

Busy: About right, IMO:

If by points u mean bullets, I wouldn't go more than 4 per slide. Charts with 5+ bullets lose their impact, IMO.

MLB has been promoting itself in Japan for decades. I went to see the Mets in 1974 play a team of Japanese All-stars in Korakuen Stadium in Tokyo. It was preceded by the famous Hank Aaron/Sadaharu Oh home run hitting contest. Yogi Berra upon arrival in Japan, Oct 74: Tom Seaver & Joe Torre: Hank Aaron in the HR contest: