Irene

[Neal Pomea]

Good luck, East Coasters! I feel pretty safe in Montgomery County Maryland and expect only tropical storm force winds of 40mph, enough to cause some power outages. But you folks along the coast (especially North Carolina and the Chesapeake area) look like you will take the brunt of it with storm surge. Hope it weakens by the time it gets to New Jersey and points beyond.

[T.D.]

The boffins still don't seem to have a great handle on where it's headed.

Forecast for my area (Catskill Mtns, NY), slightly inland and West of the worst, is for total of 7-10" of rain, winds up to 60mph. It's been a really wet last month (year, decade...) and that much rain'll be a big problem.

I fear it'll be real bad for NJ and metro NYC area. Don't want to get any more alarmist yet...

I don't expect the forecasts to really "converge" until Irene touches down in NC Outer Banks.

Edited August 26, 2011 by T.D.

[alocispepraluger102]

The boffins still don't seem to have a great handle on where it's headed.

Forecast for my area (Catskill Mtns, NY), slightly inland and West of the worst, is for total of 7-10" of rain, winds up to 60mph. It's been a really wet last month (year, decade...) and that much rain'll be a big problem.

I fear it'll be real bad for NJ and metro NYC area. Don't want to get any more alarmist yet...

I don't expect the forecasts to really "converge" until Irene touches down in NC Outer Banks.

it's hard to know what to believe from the media and their dire storm forecasts.

the main goal is to attract eyeballs and attention.

i generally regard most of these severe warnings with a very wary eye.

just one big storm has gone up the hudson, as i recall

[T.D.]

I'd never watch TV coverage for the reasons you mention (and I don't watch TV).

There's some pretty objective and balanced coverage on the Internet, for instance Dr. Jeff Masters's blog.. And you can find out a lot by navigating the National Weather Service / NOAA sites.

[.:.impossible]

Hurricanes are part of the deal down here. This storm seems to be particularly hyped by TWC. Over time, I'm afraid that this will turn into a cry wolf scenario and people will not take these storms seriously. If you understand anything about hurricanes, it is that they are extremely unpredictable up until 24 hours of landfall. Even now, this storm is turning further east. It may come back. It may move due north. Either way, folks that are in a warning or watch zone need to be prepared for the worst. Help your elderly neighbors to be sure they have their medications refilled for the week, etc.

The outer bands have started here. Driving rain, swirling winds with low gusts.

I'm off to the store for beer and non-perishables.

Everyone please be proactive and stay safe.

p.s. I'm a big fan of wundermap and the wunderground blogs. My wife also works for the county, so we are getting regular .ppt reports from emergency response and noaa with a significantly less sensational tone than what TWC is delivering.

[PHILLYQ]

TWC is looking for eyeballs/ratings, so their coverage will be on the hysterical side. Panic buying has set in in Brooklyn, with people buying the usual milk bread and eggs(I imagine thousands of folks eating french toast for days!) and flashlights are doing a brisk business.

[Tom 1960]

The boffins still don't seem to have a great handle on where it's headed.

Forecast for my area (Catskill Mtns, NY), slightly inland and West of the worst, is for total of 7-10" of rain, winds up to 60mph. It's been a really wet last month (year, decade...) and that much rain'll be a big problem.

I'm concerned about down trees and power outages. You can only hope things turn out not as bad as the forecasters are calling for. That said, I'm getting prepared.

[.:.impossible]

TWC is looking for eyeballs/ratings, so their coverage will be on the hysterical side. Panic buying has set in in Brooklyn, with people buying the usual milk bread and eggs(I imagine thousands of folks eating french toast for days!) and flashlights are doing a brisk business.

Without power, they'll be eating bread...

Flash flooding here and there in the usual low areas of town. We are still in the early stages where a band of heavy rain and strong gusts run through. Its just me at the house right now, so I'm playing One Down, One Up pretty loud and looking at maps.

[Dan Gould]

I find it hee-sterical when people complain about the "doom and gloom" scenarios being "hyped".

Here's a newsflash you can trust:

HURRICANES ARE SERIOUS AS DEATH.

Just because it doesn't hit you directly or the path shifts a bit, doesn't mean that the warnings weren't legitimate and real. This is a serious fucking storm that is headed toward areas that don't a fucking clue what hurricanes can do. If you don't understand why that requires a serious response, then I just hope you don't end up going three weeks without power, or get five feet of water in your front door.

Actually, I kinda do wish that because people who don't respect Mother Nature deserve what they get.

[Guy Berger]

It seems seriously overhyped. (But disaster p0rn sells...)

Most of the NOAA coverage suggests hurricane-force winds in Manhattan are very unlikely and that the median scenario remains something in the weaker tropical storm range. That said, there could be some nasty flooding in the southern end of Manhattan and I worry about the electricity going out.

[papsrus]

Like Dan says, if you're in the direct path of the center of this thing (and some folks will be) you're likely in for a serious wallop. If you're not in the direct path of the center of it, but many miles away from the center, you may still experience high sustained winds, much higher gusts, and some flooding, but relatively little damage to personal property (leading you to conclude, wrongly, that it was all hype).

If you're anywhere near the center of one of these things, it can be a frightening deal. With no place to go.

I can recall throwing a mattress in the bathtub back in 2005 2004, I think it was, when hurricanes were crisscrossing Florida one right after the other. Charley caused the worst damage, in this area. And it was pretty compact, compared to Irene, which looks like a freakin' monster.

Edited August 26, 2011 by papsrus

[T.D.]

Another 6-hour model update (they come out at 8AM, 2PM, 8PM, 2AM), and (from the standpoint of a NY resident) the computer models have just as much spread as they did this morning.

[Added] Tom 1960 [We live in the same county, Tom at the East end and myself at the far West], FYI the Ulster Co. Executive just declared a State of Emergency:

COUNTY EXECUTIVE HEIN DECLARES A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR ULSTER COUNTY IN ORDER TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF COUNTY RESIDENTS

Kingston, NY – Ulster County Executive Mike Hein declared a state of emergency in Ulster County in preparation for the potential impact of Hurricane Irene, which may hit New York State this coming weekend. A state of emergency is issued under Article 2B of New York State Executive Law. At the County Executive’s direction, county departments are planning cooperative response efforts to take all necessary actions to sure the safety of county residents. The state government is communicating with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service to discuss the potential tracks of the storm. The County Emergency Management Office is monitoring all such communications...

Edited August 26, 2011 by T.D.

[BillF]

Another 6-hour model update (they come out at 8AM, 2PM, 8PM, 2AM), and (from the standpoint of a NY resident) the computer models have just as much spread as they did this morning.

[Added] Tom 1960, FYI the Ulster Co. Executive just declared a State of Emergency:

COUNTY EXECUTIVE HEIN DECLARES A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR ULSTER COUNTY IN ORDER TO TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF COUNTY RESIDENTS

Kingston, NY – Ulster County Executive Mike Hein declared a state of emergency in Ulster County in preparation for the potential impact of Hurricane Irene, which may hit New York State this coming weekend. A state of emergency is issued under Article 2B of New York State Executive Law. At the County Executive’s direction, county departments are planning cooperative response efforts to take all necessary actions to sure the safety of county residents. The state government is communicating with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service to discuss the potential tracks of the storm. The County Emergency Management Office is monitoring all such communications...

Wow! Got my fingers crossed for you, Tom!

[7/4]

TWC is looking for eyeballs/ratings, so their coverage will be on the hysterical side. Panic buying has set in in Brooklyn, with people buying the usual milk bread and eggs(I imagine thousands of folks eating french toast for days!) and flashlights are doing a brisk business.

I did all that shopping Thursday morning.

I live next to the Rahway river, so in the morning I'll put the car on a parking deck down the street and retire to my apt to listen to tunes until the power goes out.

[Aggie87]

My sister lives in Houston, which is the 4th largest city in the U.S. In 2008 Hurricane Ike hit Galveston and then Houston.

She and her family decided to ride this one out instead of evacuating (primarily due to the mandatory evacuation fiasco for Hurricane Rita back in 2005, when it took something like 28 hrs to drive from Houston to Austin (normally a 3 hr drive). Luckily, their house sustained no major damage, though there were numerous downed trees in the neighborhood.

But they lost electricity completely, for something like 10 days. You try "living" without power for that long - it's difficult. Gasoline was hard to come by, a few people had portable generators, but it's still difficult to cook or refrigerate foods.

The downed trees made it difficult to traverse alot of roads, and the utility companies were so overtaxed it took that long just to get the repairs made to get things back up and running.

Stay safe.

My wife's between Philly and the NJ coast, and very nervous. I'm nervous as well.

Edited August 26, 2011 by Aggie87

[JSngry]

So, if Irene hurts New York City, will that be grounds for sending troops into the atmosphere to look for weapons of mass destruction? And will We As A Nation not rest until this "Irene" is hunted down at its source and brought to justice in front of the entire world?

I knew they'd find a way to save the space program!

[.:.impossible]

In my experience, being in the northeastern quadrant of a hurricane is the most violent. The eye wall has collapsed and data suggests that this storm will not be able to stay as organized as it has, nor will it continue to gain strength. That is good news, except that the storm surges are estimated to be closer to those of a Cat4. This is a very high New Moon tide. Wherever the storm is during a crest will bring significant coastal flooding. Enough to change the coastline.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that people should disregard warning, just that TWC has gone over the top with coverage of this particular storm. For better or for worse.

No need to wish that someone's life is destroyed for lack of judgement. As you said, most regions are not accustomed to hurricanes.

[RDK]

A co-worker and his wife were scheduled to fly into Raleigh tomorrow to visit family and the airline refuses to change their tix (without a severe penalty of course) by claiming that it's not an emergency.

[RDK]

I find it hee-sterical when people complain about the "doom and gloom" scenarios being "hyped".

Here's a newsflash you can trust:

HURRICANES ARE SERIOUS AS DEATH.

Just because it doesn't hit you directly or the path shifts a bit, doesn't mean that the warnings weren't legitimate and real. This is a serious fucking storm that is headed toward areas that don't a fucking clue what hurricanes can do. If you don't understand why that requires a serious response, then I just hope you don't end up going three weeks without power, or get five feet of water in your front door.

Actually, I kinda do wish that because people who don't respect Mother Nature deserve what they get.

I'm with Dan on this one. Sure, the news channels want eyeballs and this is a compelling story to follow, but I also think it's their job to hype and persuade people of the danger lest too many simply ignore it. It may turn out to be nothing, but you can't predict these things with exact certainty and I'd rather see people take it seriously then shrug it off. It's always like this with flu season too. The gov't warns people to get shots in the hopes of warding off a possible pandemic, then people get shots, the pandemic never comes... and there's always some fool who then says that the danger was overblown since it never happened.

[JSngry]

All I can say is that if we miss this opportunity to save the space program, it will be the final shattering of the final dream.

[Teasing the Korean]

I'm amazed that after Katrina anyone would take this lightly.

[T.D.]

I think TWC always oversensationalises things, and find the channel almost unwatchable. OTOH, anything that impinges on media capital NYC is gonna get hyped to death.

But I don't think, at least in NYS, that this storm is being taken lightly. There have been all kinds of emergency declarations (the Ulster Co. one I cited above is from a county bordering the Hudson Valley, 60+ miles North of NYC), and I've heard of numerous mandatory evacuations in sections of NYC and Long Island. Probably (such is human nature), people are under-prepared for long power outages, though.

Edited August 26, 2011 by T.D.

[BERIGAN]

It really is a damned if you hype, damned if you don't hype situation...there are ALWAYS morons that don't listen, and some times they luck out, and other times when the reporters catch up with those that laughed the storm off that say they would never again ride a storm out.

Clearly it's not a "strong" storm compared to Katrina or Camille (God help us if/when a Camille type hits land again) but the combination of size of the storm surge and the rain falling on areas like Philly and NYC already so water logged, will be devastating.

Of course, if it jogs further east and misses most cities, the storm will be considered a huge joke, and people won't move the next time a storm comes ashore around NYC...

[Hardbopjazz]

Goodnight Irene. Time to leave. Why I had to buy a home so close to the ocean?

[7/4]

TWC is looking for eyeballs/ratings, so their coverage will be on the hysterical side. Panic buying has set in in Brooklyn, with people buying the usual milk bread and eggs(I imagine thousands of folks eating french toast for days!) and flashlights are doing a brisk business.

I did all that shopping Thursday morning.

I live next to the Rahway river, so in the morning I'll put the car on a parking deck down the street and retire to my apt to listen to tunes until the power goes out.

I see my parking lot is mostly empty this evening!