2010-2011 Hot Stove Thread

[Dan Gould]

Which will amuse me, Paul. The Yanks played hardball, now Cashman is begging him to come back, I bet. I wouldn't be surprised if Pettitte would have had no thought about returning if they had gone to the Series, let alone won it. Better to go out on a strong season, after an injury, with a pennant or world series win. Pettitte should still consider going out on a personal high note rather than tempt fate again. He might lose it or he might get hurt again and struggle to return. But I think like his buddy Roger, he's motivated by money, or can be motivated by it.

I mean, how many times can we hear that he wants to spend time with his kids only to have him come back again and again and again before you realize that the whole family man thing doesn't mean a damn when it comes down to the money plus the drive to compete?

[papsrus]

Papsrus--what say you to the Rays' prospects for 2011? They've lost Crawford and I'm assuming they'll lose Soriano, but the rotation is staying intact, correct? Any other departures or arrivals that look to have an impact?

They're searching the bargain bins. They just traded Bartlett to the Padres for pitchers Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos.

Was a little premature on that Bartlett trade.

[Dan Gould]

Interesting info about Bobby Jenks, newly signed by the Red Sox to a two-year, 12 million dollar deal:

Jenks had a 4.44 earned run average last season, the highest since he broke into the majors in 2005. But a closer look at the statistics reveals that may have been a product of bad luck.

Jenks averaged 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, the best rate of his career over a full season. He also had the second-best ground ball rate (58.3 percent) of his career and maintained his control, issuing only 18 walks over 52 2/3 innings. Jenks allowed three home runs and converted 27 of his 31 save chances.

According to the PitchFx data compiled by the Fangraphs.com, Jenks averaged 94.9 miles per hour on his fastball, slightly better than in 2009. His slider also maintained its velocity. But opponents had a batting average of .354 on balls in play, which helped to elevate Jenks’s ERA.

The 280-pound Jenks missed the final 27 games of the season with tendinitis in his right forearm. He battled other nagging injuries during the season and struggled with his conditioning.

“I thought he used his changeup a little too much at times. But his stuff was still there,’’ an American League scout said. “If he’s healthy, he’s still a closer in my book.’’

My perception had been that Jenks was an expensive reclamation project, predicated on a hope that a change in scenery might help. Sounds like his stuff was much better than his ERA suggested.

When you get right down to it, a healthy/effective Jenks, with Bard and best-case scenario, a bounce-back season from Papelbon would give the Sox three closers for the seventh-ninth innings.

And if Papelbon bites the big one again, they can send him away and still have two pretty good arms at the end of the game.

[Dan Gould]

Found some more info on why Jenks could be as big a move as Gonzalez and Crawford:

The White Sox allowed a .310 BABIP on flyballs for Jenks last year, whereas the league average is a paltry .137. Flyballs are supposed to be the best thing to give up in terms of having a low BABIP, and the Sox more than doubled the average in Jenks’ 55 innings.

Injury and fitness are always a concern with this guy (I've attached Ozzie Guillen's way of signaling for Jenks below - he didn't do it by pointing to his right arm) but it really seems his problems were all about bad luck, not fading stuff. If his peripherals return to a more normal range, there's no reason why he shouldn't be the dominant reliever he has been in the past.

Which makes Papelbon having a salary-drive season all the more important. If he can just regain his mojo, the Sox bullpen could be the Nasty Boys, part Deux.

More here.

[Matthew]

If I were a Phillies fan, I wouldn't be completely confident. You're talking two starters who will be 34 next season (Halladay and Lee), a .500 pitcher over the past two years (Hamels), and a 33 year old (next season) pitcher who's had back problems (Oswalt). On paper, things may look great, but a lot can happen over the course of a season.

But, hey, I'd be pleased if the Yanks had that staff.

I'm hoping that Andy Pettitte will return - even though he'll be 39 next season - just because the Yanks don't have anyone better. Have a feeling that if he does return, he may break down again. If he does return, he should get a decent contract. The Yankees had him over a barrel last year, and he signed a contract for less than he was worth. This year, he holds the cards and the Yankees will have to pay to get him back.

edited for correction: Cliff Lee will be 33 next season.

Have to agree with you on the Phillies rotation, for some reason, something doesn't feel right about it. I also think the Braves could very well surprise and win the division, I mean, losing Bobby Cox has to add five wins to this season, right?

[Dave James]

Latest crappy news from Yankee land. Red Sox sign Tampa's Dan Wheeler to add depth to their ever expanding bullpen. Kerry Wood signs with the Cubs. Brian Cashman can say all he wants about patience being Plan B, but he'd better get off his keister some time soon or eating someone else's dust is going to be the only item left on his menu. I'm not sure I could have imagined a worse off season.

[Dan Gould]

Here's the Wheeler stat that stands out:

Wheeler has had very good WHIP's the last three seasons. That's walks and hits per inning. Last season Wheeler's WHIP was 1.075 and in the two previous years 0.995 and 0.87, both of which are outstanding.

Apparently being raised in New England helped land him. I'd probably have been perfectly satisfied if Wheeler had been the main addition to the bullpen, he's been effective enough to figure that he'd give Francona someone to rely on to get to Bard or when Bard needs a blow. But Wheeler being secondary to Jenks makes me really pleased. When you get down to it the Red Sox have four good to outstanding arms in the bullpen: Wheeler, Bard, Jenks and Papelbon. Jenks could replace Paps if he has to, but that's a strong pen anyway you slice it, and Bard and Jenks have had success against lefties in the past which makes the lack of a situational lefty less acute of a problem.

Everyone is saying Jenks would pitch the seventh but I have to wonder if the best option isn't to keep Jenks on a closer-like program of almost always starting an inning and usually going only one. Then use Bard as the guy to get it to him, or if he struggles, he's the guy who pitches the highest leverage at-bats. As its been argued, use your best pitcher at the most important times - and Bard was clearly the best reliever they had last year.

One thing is for sure - they can tell Dice-K "hey, just pitch the first five in 120 pitches or less. Then its Wheeler, Bard, Jenks and Paps for the win."

Seriously though - you have to have a pretty good bullpen if Wheeler pitches the sixth inning.

[ghost of miles]

Which will amuse me, Paul. The Yanks played hardball, now Cashman is begging him to come back, I bet. I wouldn't be surprised if Pettitte would have had no thought about returning if they had gone to the Series, let alone won it. Better to go out on a strong season, after an injury, with a pennant or world series win. Pettitte should still consider going out on a personal high note rather than tempt fate again. He might lose it or he might get hurt again and struggle to return. But I think like his buddy Roger, he's motivated by money, or can be motivated by it.

I mean, how many times can we hear that he wants to spend time with his kids only to have him come back again and again and again before you realize that the whole family man thing doesn't mean a damn when it comes down to the money plus the drive to compete?

Actually, Pettitte's hardly been talking his head off about this situation--it's driven by fan curiosity and the NY media. What's to say this isn't a genuine struggle for him? He's an athlete with a very finite career--and just about every professional athlete is motivated by money, so there's hardly any evil there. I know if I were in his shoes it would be a difficult decision, given that he'd most likely make another ten million or more if he came back for one more year... yet at the same time he's got several children, and in the end, as Artie Shaw liked to say, "Time is all you've got." Anyway, I don't think there's anything unnatural about a star athlete in his late 30s struggling with this kind of decision for two or three years in a row.

Re: the Boston bullpen, now will you cede that Boston is the clear-cut favorite to win the AL East?

[Dan Gould]

I'm not trying to imply evil motives just pointing out the hypocracy (damn that's a hard word to spell) of a man who talks so much about family but keeps returning to baseball. He's had as hard a time retiring as Clemens has.

And its delicious to see that Cashman is in no position to play hardball on his salary and that Pettitte can demand some outrageous amount.

As for the Red Sox bullpen, their advantage exists so long as the Yankees don't revert to form and throw three years and twenty million at Rafael Soriano.

[J.A.W.]

hypocracy (damn that's a hard word to spell)

How about "hypocrisy"?

[Dan Gould]

hypocracy (damn that's a hard word to spell)

How about "hypocrisy"?

If spell-check were predictive instead of just underlining the problem word, maybe I wouldn't be so embarrassed. :blush2:

[J.A.W.]

hypocracy (damn that's a hard word to spell)

How about "hypocrisy"?

If spell-check were predictive instead of just underlining the problem word, maybe I wouldn't be so embarrassed. :blush2:

It might be comforting to know that this is by far the best bulletin board I've seen as far as spelling and grammar are concerned. Some of the other boards are embarrassingly bad in that respect

[Chalupa]

Greinke to Brewers

[Matthew]

Greinke to Brewers

Do teams like Kansas City or the Pirates even try to build a good team anymore? How about instead of a Luxury Tax, they have a Suckitude Tax, and for finishing under .500 for three years in a row, a team has to add 20 million to the pay roll. I'm sick and tired of these crappy teams not even trying to improve themselves.

[papsrus]

Greinke to Brewers

Huh. I guess the Rangers weren't all that interested, or didn't have the goods?

So who's left?

Rays were actually able to free up some dollars (even given their drastically reduced payroll) with the Bartlett trade. Rays got relievers Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos and a couple of minor leaguers in return. Padres will also get a player to be determined (which I believe is different from a player to be 'named.')

Red Sox are the clear favorites in the East, I think. They'll be hungry, too, after last season.

[Dan Gould]

Greinke to Brewers

Didn't realize the Brewers had the minor league system to get this trade done ... glad to have him out of the league, if only to make it easier to sweep KC. Or else it won't be possible to curse the schedule-makers when you see that the Sox get him back-to-back series but the Yanks miss him.

Problem is, now the Cubs will have to deal with him. Good move for the Brewers.

Two years to free agency, when he'll be 29. Will be real interesting to see if those "he can't handle NY" stories will actually prevent the Yankees from breaking the bank. Or if the Sox go all-in (Dice-K will be gone and they traded their top starter prospect to get A-Gon), will the Yanks follow suit.

Joe Poznanski had a great blog post this week about the whole "Grienke can't hack high-pressure situations".

[Dan Gould]

Rays were actually able to free up some dollars (even given their drastically reduced payroll) with the Bartlett trade.

Has anyone linked the Rays to Manny? He has to know he has no chance for anything like a big guaranteed contract, but how could you go wrong with a few million with incentives that bring it up to $5-10 million? The Rays always seem to need a DH, and Manny back in the East could be a monster again, at least for another season. He always hits against the Yankees, and back at Fenway ...

If I were certain that the Sox will win the division, I'd be less worried about the Rays improving by getting Manny - give them a chance to challenge the Yanks for the wild card. But since nothing is guaranteed, I should probably prefer that the Rays not sign him.

[Dave James]

Mr. Brian Cashman

c/o Yankee Stadium

1 East 61st Street

Bronx, New York 10451

Dear Brian,

I must not have gotten the memo about you taking the off-season off. Hope you're enjoying your time away.

When you get back, you might want to have a look at what some of your counterparts have been up to.

You know, little things like signing Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford or trading for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or

Zack Grienke. I know before you left, you were able to extend our washed up shortstop's career by an

additional three years and resign Mo when you found out the Red Sox were interested. Thank you for that.

Now what? Do you really believe this team can stay competitive by not altering a line-up so replete with

over-paid and underperforming players? While you're doing nothing, you might want to reconsider. I'd hate

to think it's too late to do much, so I'm hoping that that Plan B you keep talking about really exists. If not,

thanks for 2009. I'm afraid it may be awhile before we see the likes of that again.

Your friend,

Dave

cc:

George Steinbrenner

Hal Steinbrenner

Hank Steinbrenner

Randy Levine

[BERIGAN]

Mr. Brian Cashman

c/o Yankee Stadium

1 East 61st Street

Bronx, New York 10451

Dear Brian,

I must not have gotten the memo about you taking the off-season off. Hope you're enjoying your time away.

When you get back, you might want to have a look at what some of your counterparts have been up to.

You know, little things like signing Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford or trading for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or

Zack Grienke. I know before you left, you were able to extend our washed up shortstop's career by an

additional three years and resign Mo when you found out the Red Sox were interested. Thank you for that.

Now what? Do you really believe this team can stay competitive by not altering a line-up so replete with

over-paid and underperforming players? While you're doing nothing, you might want to reconsider. I'd hate

to think it's too late to do much, so I'm hoping that that Plan B you keep talking about really exists. If not,

thanks for 2009. I'm afraid it may be awhile before we see the likes of that again.

Your friend,

Dave

cc:

George Steinbrenner

Hal Steinbrenner

Hank Steinbrenner

Randy Levine

Dave, I would blame the spawns of Steinbrenner...they just don't have the same passion for baseball and winning their Father did....they are looking at all the moola that is spent every year, rather than saying who cares, we need to win...that being said...the Red Sox basically had a rebuilding year (as close as teams like the Red Sox and Yankees can have) and the Yankees really shouldn't trade away the best hitting prospect in the minors, unless they got someone like Grienke(and that isn't going to happen, since he has been traded to the Brewers )

so bear(bare?) with a difficult "rebuilding" year, and switching places with the Red Sox as the...heh...Underdog in the AL East....

Edited December 19, 2010 by BERIGAN

[JETman]

Mr. Brian Cashman

c/o Yankee Stadium

1 East 61st Street

Bronx, New York 10451

Dear Brian,

I must not have gotten the memo about you taking the off-season off. Hope you're enjoying your time away.

When you get back, you might want to have a look at what some of your counterparts have been up to.

You know, little things like signing Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford or trading for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez or

Zack Grienke. I know before you left, you were able to extend our washed up shortstop's career by an

additional three years and resign Mo when you found out the Red Sox were interested. Thank you for that.

Now what? Do you really believe this team can stay competitive by not altering a line-up so replete with

over-paid and underperforming players? While you're doing nothing, you might want to reconsider. I'd hate

to think it's too late to do much, so I'm hoping that that Plan B you keep talking about really exists. If not,

thanks for 2009. I'm afraid it may be awhile before we see the likes of that again.

Your friend,

Dave

cc:

George Steinbrenner

Hal Steinbrenner

Hank Steinbrenner

Randy Levine

Yet another sign of the sense of entitlement that seems to run rampant in Yankeeland. It's difficult to think that Bronx residents can possibly feel entitled to anything.

[Brad]

Not sure how Dave's letter is a sense of entitlement. He's just asking how they're going to improve the team. Seems like a natural question for a fan to act.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Brad

[papsrus]

Rays were actually able to free up some dollars (even given their drastically reduced payroll) with the Bartlett trade.

Has anyone linked the Rays to Manny? He has to know he has no chance for anything like a big guaranteed contract, but how could you go wrong with a few million with incentives that bring it up to $5-10 million? The Rays always seem to need a DH, and Manny back in the East could be a monster again, at least for another season. He always hits against the Yankees, and back at Fenway ...

If I were certain that the Sox will win the division, I'd be less worried about the Rays improving by getting Manny - give them a chance to challenge the Yanks for the wild card. But since nothing is guaranteed, I should probably prefer that the Rays not sign him.

Rays have dismissed any talk of bringing Manny to St. Pete. I tend to believe them simply because what you have now is a AAAA team and Maddon's brain. I think both Maddon and Sternberg kind of like that equation, for different reasons.

At this point, Sternberg is basically positioning the team (the payroll) to where he can say, "I'm trying to make this work the right way, developing young talent, but I need a new stadium or this just isn't going to work."

Bringing a guy like Manny on board doesn't seem to fit with that plan. I just don't see it because for political reasons, Sternberg may not be interested in trying too hard to draw more fans to the Trop at this point.

On the plus side, with the dispersal of Rays players around the league, I'm developing an interest in a whole bunch of new teams now.

[JETman]

Not sure how Dave's letter is a sense of entitlement. He's just asking how they're going to improve the team. Seems like a natural question for a fan to act.

The Yankees are the only team in professional sports which EXPECTS to win EVERY year. Yankee fans have bought into this mentality big time, and have the audacity to feel cheated if they do not get this.

As a fellow Mets fan, I thought certainly you would understand this.

[Tim McG]

Not sure how Dave's letter is a sense of entitlement. He's just asking how they're going to improve the team. Seems like a natural question for a fan to act.

OK.

But the Yankees aren't exactly a last place team, either.

I mean, are the only choices win the World Series or abysmal failure?

Wow

[Brad]

Not sure how Dave's letter is a sense of entitlement. He's just asking how they're going to improve the team. Seems like a natural question for a fan to act.

The Yankees are the only team in professional sports which EXPECTS to win EVERY year. Yankee fans have bought into this mentality big time, and have the audacity to feel cheated if they do not get this.

As a fellow Mets fan, I thought certainly you would understand this.

Well, the Yankees have a lot of money and go and spend it as they fit. In the past they would spend willy nilly. I'm not sure the sons feel that way. At any rate, I don't the management acts like that. I think what you're referring to are the fans. Yes, they act like that, which is why it's fun to seethem get their comeuppance once in a while. I have to say the fans on this Forum aren't like that, mostly the ones in the NY metro area.

Edited December 22, 2010 by Brad