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ghost of miles

COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

419 posts in this topic

On 5/25/2020 at 1:39 PM, sonnymax said:

Safe, and stylin'

200525-joe-biden-jill-memorial-cs-1220p_

Joe Biden and his wife lay a wreath at the Veterans Memorial Park at the Delaware Memorial Bridge.

👍👍👍

Speaking of veterans, the U.S. death toll is not just past 100,000—it’s more than the combined number of U.S. deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars. So three months of the virus > 11 years of war. And yet people all over the place were acting this weekend as if it was V-Covid Day. WTF?! More dead in three months than Korea and Vietnam combined, and more dying every single day. I’m not here to argue a return to complete shutdown—I’m here to argue that any reopening plans based on “encouraging” people to behave responsibly are bullshit.  Thank God this particular generation of Americans didn’t have to fight WWII. They’re doing a great job of helping to kill off some of the remaining ones who did, though.

 

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11 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

👍👍👍

Speaking of veterans, the U.S. death toll is not just past 100,000—it’s more than the combined number of U.S. deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars. So three months of the virus > 11 years of war. And yet people all over the place were acting this weekend as if it was V-Covid Day. WTF?! More dead in three months than Korea and Vietnam combined, and more dying every single day. I’m not here to argue a return to complete shutdown—I’m here to argue that any reopening plans based on “encouraging” people to behave responsibly are bullshit.  Thank God this particular generation of Americans didn’t have to fight WWII. They’re doing a great job of helping to kill off some of the remaining ones who did, though.

 

No question there are idiots out there, but how do you explain the fact that social distancing in fact started before official lockdowns went into effect? Phone data has shown this all over the place. I am not saying lockdowns weren't needed but people did start wising up before most state and local governments did.

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Posted (edited)

10 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

No question there are idiots out there, but how do you explain the fact that social distancing in fact started before official lockdowns went into effect? Phone data has shown this all over the place. I am not saying lockdowns weren't needed but people did start wising up before most state and local governments did.

Yeah, sorry, I was already thinking that I had used too broad a brush-stroke... I actually think the majority of Americans have done a good job and get the significance of what’s going on, out of concern for others and concern for their own wellbeing. But the idiots, or the willfully/defiantly ignorant or deluded, are a loud and large minority (non-Frank Foster edition), and it takes only a few of them to put us right back to square one in each state. 

EDIT: the science is still apparently out on how warmer weather will affect transmission of the virus. This Washington Post article points towards a possible slowing of transmission rates, IF people observe social-distancing and other health protocols. Autumn and winter will be a whole ‘nother deal. 

Edited by ghost of miles

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1 hour ago, ghost of miles said:

 EDIT: the science is still apparently out on how warmer weather will affect transmission of the virus. This Washington Post article points towards a possible slowing of transmission rates, IF people observe social-distancing and other health protocols. Autumn and winter will be a whole ‘nother deal. 

Speaking of the science:  there are people (e.g.Thomas Friedman) arguing that allowing  "healthy" people  to get the disease will cause "herd immunity". But doesn't that require those who've had the virus to become immune, which doesn't seem to be the case?   

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Herd immunity? Like what I have when I'm not buying the latest Woody Herman Mosaic?

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3 hours ago, medjuck said:

Speaking of the science:  there are people (e.g.Thomas Friedman) arguing that allowing  "healthy" people  to get the disease will cause "herd immunity". But doesn't that require those who've had the virus to become immune, which doesn't seem to be the case?   

Perhaps you missed the reporting but indications of "re-infections" have been discounted. What the re-tests were picking up were dead virus fragments which take a while to clear the recovered system's. 

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Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

Perhaps you missed the reporting but indications of "re-infections" have been discounted. What the re-tests were picking up were dead virus fragments which take a while to clear the recovered system's. 

My wife said she also read that people don't get infected a second time :  they just think the original infection has gone away when it hasn't. They feel better for a while, then not so much.  But I'd also worry about who the healthy people are:  If you take out the old (which includes people much younger than me), the overweight, those with existing  illnesses, and smokers, haven't you excluded  a large percentage of the population?  

Edited by medjuck

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1 hour ago, medjuck said:

My wife said she also read that people don't get infected a second time :  they just think the original infection has gone away when it hasn't. They feel better for a while, then not so much.  But I'd also worry about who the healthy people are:  If you take out the old (which includes people much younger than me), the overweight, those with existing  illnesses, and smokers, haven't you excluded  a large percentage of the population?  

Let's start with one specific thing... there are countries out there that have licked this thing, where infections are at a very low level and monitoring is really good/vigilant.  A lot of the economy can reopen.  A lot of the economy can reopen safely in that situation.

Unfortunately in the US we decided not to do that.  So instead we're ending up with the worst of both worlds, a lot of deaths and an economy whose reopening capacity is more limited.

Estimates of herd immunity range from 25% to 70% of the US population.  We're still far short of that.  Even if we magically optimize for the least risky and intentionally infect them, we'd still end up with a lot of additional deaths.  

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26 minutes ago, Guy Berger said:

Let's start with one specific thing... there are countries out there that have licked this thing, where infections are at a very low level and monitoring is really good/vigilant.  A lot of the economy can reopen.  A lot of the economy can reopen safely in that situation.

Unfortunately in the US we decided not to do that.  So instead we're ending up with the worst of both worlds, a lot of deaths and an economy whose reopening capacity is more limited.

Estimates of herd immunity range from 25% to 70% of the US population.  We're still far short of that.  Even if we magically optimize for the least risky and intentionally infect them, we'd still end up with a lot of additional deaths.  

New Zealand for example. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52450978

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2 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

Let's start with one specific thing... there are countries out there that have licked this thing, where infections are at a very low level and monitoring is really good/vigilant.  A lot of the economy can reopen.  A lot of the economy can reopen safely in that situation.

Unfortunately in the US we decided not to do that.  So instead we're ending up with the worst of both worlds, a lot of deaths and an economy whose reopening capacity is more limited.

Estimates of herd immunity range from 25% to 70% of the US population.  We're still far short of that.  Even if we magically optimize for the least risky and intentionally infect them, we'd still end up with a lot of additional deaths.  

Which countries have licked this thing?

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1 hour ago, jcam_44 said:

Which countries have licked this thing?

New Zealand.  See above. 

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7 hours ago, medjuck said:

New Zealand.  See above. 

Oh we have different definitions of “Licked” then. I was thinking “Licked” as in fully eliminated. 

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1 hour ago, jcam_44 said:

Oh we have different definitions of “Licked” then. I was thinking “Licked” as in fully eliminated. 

According to the following article in the Washington Post, that doesn’t seem likely.

Coronavirus may never go away, even with a vaccine

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2 hours ago, jcam_44 said:

Oh we have different definitions of “Licked” then. I was thinking “Licked” as in fully eliminated. 

Yeah, that's unlikely.

But a world in which the number of ongoing new cases is very small and we have the testing/tracing regime to quickly nip outbreaks in the bud is very different than what we're experiencing in the US.

A lot of activities that are safe in the former regime will be risky in the latter.

New Zealand is not the only country that has succeeded.

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3 hours ago, jcam_44 said:

Oh we have different definitions of “Licked” then. I was thinking “Licked” as in fully eliminated. 

NZ does have no cases in the hospital. 

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3 minutes ago, medjuck said:

NZ does have no cases in the hospital. 

You’re right. It’s been licked. 

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QuarantineChat Brings Back Spontaneity (and Distraction)

If you’re feeling isolated and/or alone, Quarantine Chat may be a perfect solution.  

“Phone calls with strangers can reintroduce random connections into our locked-down lives, and be a balm for loneliness and grief.”

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It's been known for some time that asymptomatic carries are a big part of the problem, but I'm not sure anyone has really put a number to it yet.  There is some research that seems to indicate 40-50% of people are essentially asymptomatic but potentially contagious.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

If true, that means there is almost no way to really get a handle on this without truly widescale testing.  We're certainly not there yet, though in Ontario they are finally hitting their internal level of 20,000 tests a day and the number of new cases is heading down slowly.  Personally, I'd like to see much more randomized testing and eventually an attempt to test anyone who is being called back into work by Sept.

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19 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

Very interesting report:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

Seems that the "study" that said the malaria drug that Trump talked up and was supposedly doing a better job killing patients than, er, COVID, might be, um, highly doubtful?

 

 

I did see that.  Certainly ironic.  My gut says they were right but for the wrong reasons.  Regardless, I certainly won't be taking any hydroxychloroquine any time soon.

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52 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

Very interesting report:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

Seems that the "study" that said the malaria drug that Trump talked up and was supposedly doing a better job killing patients than, er, COVID, might be, um, highly doubtful?

 

 

Yep--Josh Marshall posted a skeptical piece about this study not too long ago, citing some of the same issues that the Guardian article elaborates on.  

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On 5/24/2020 at 7:27 PM, felser said:

My sister's mother-in-law, 89 and advanced dementia and in a nursing home here in southeastern PA, has it and is not expected to make it.  Just found out this afternoon.

She passed this morning.  God rest her soul.

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18 minutes ago, felser said:

She passed this morning.  God rest her soul.

My condolences.  :(

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My condolences as well. 

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