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Everything posted by Dan Gould
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What is past its sell-by date is discussing Wynton. YAWN
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Hey Dave and other Yank fans: What say you about this reported three-way trade with Melky headed to Atlanta and the Yanks getting this Gonzales guy from the Pirates? I say go for it. Give away your best defensive outfielder, a guy who is in his early 20s and played excellent ball last year, just to be able to bring back Bernie and make him your primary back up outfielder. Discover that he really is old and washed up and last year was a fluke. Doesn't even bother me if this relief pitcher is lights out; it will hurt at least as much as it will help. Meanwhile, the Sox also signed JC Romero, whose best years were definitely long ago in Minnesota but might bounce back this year. He's still death to lefties (.211 average) and since they plan to use the lefty from Japan in a more general role, I guess this helps to have a true "LOOGY". And there are indications that the reason Drew hasn't been formally introduced isn't some "language issues" that haven't been worked out because Theo and Boras were working on Dice-K, but in fact some problem in Drew's physical has popped up. If no announcement is made by sometime next week, you can bet that they are trying to walk away from the deal; I'd still be happy if they extract major concessions on $ and length.
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Red Sox acquire Brendon Donnelly from Angels Well, maybe we found ourselves a closer - at minimum, we got one of the very best setup men in the league, though I have to admit his ERA rose quite a bit to 3.94 last year. They gave up Phil Seibel, who had a decent season in A/AA/AAA on the way back from elbow reconstruction surgery. He's a decent prospect but I don't think he was considered to be in the top 5, so I think its a good move. Come to think of it, I don't think Donnelly will close - he's hardly ever been called upon to do it, but I still think its a good step forward for the pen. Edit: Seibel is 28 which I'd say makes him far less likely to be an impact pitcher in the majors, and that makes this trade even better.
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I hope people are listening because this is a fine show. Warmdaddy sounds particularly fine in this context.
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Definitely a sad day for music, though as Valerie said, it seemed like it was inevitable after his fall. What's especially unfortunate is this kind of accidental death. At 83, you figure declining health would be the cause but it sounds like he was still active so its extra unfortunate that a wrong step led to his death.
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yeah, that stuff we talked about? Think of it as a birthday present.
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Back in the day, did musicians sell their records at gigs?
Dan Gould replied to Dmitry's topic in Miscellaneous Music
This is an interesting question. My guess is that they generally didn't and that people brought records to the gig. I think part of selling CDs now is the problem of distribution, particularly for musicians who may have their own "label" on the side. On the other hand, didn't Chris once tell us that someone - maybe Philly Joe? - was ripping off his record label's LPs, and that was part of the reason they moved out of NYC (I think the other reason was making it less easy for musicians to try to ask for advances)? Now, did they steal anything they could and fence them to unsuspecting record stores? Or did they steal their own LPs in order to sell them to their fans direct? -
The justification for Clemens isn't added revenue. Ticket prices are set already and the stadium sells out. The justification is becoming overwhelming favorites (assuming they find a closer and people like Drew don't wilt under the pressure or get injured) for the World Series. As far as tickets go this year, they've already announced that something like 85% of seats will not increase this year. Part of that is the fact that the largest and most expensive renovations to Fenway have been done now and nothing significant is planned. As far as the pressure goes on the kid, everyone seems to agree that he has outstanding makeup, with a great competitive drive and no fear of failure. I'm not concerned about him handling the pressure (though you also didn't mention the 50 or so members of the Japanese media who will follow him every single day) but I am a little concerned about him dealing with deeper, more powerful lineups. Certainly, when he makes mistakes, they'll be hit a long way. But it looks like he has the stuff to succeed, and he seems to understand the art of pitching, and using all of his pitches to get batters out, unlike, say, Josh Beckett. I suspect he will dominate for a period of time, just as Nomo did. The difference is that Nomo had one pitch and once batters realized the screwball didn't always stay in the zone, he became an average to an above-average pitcher, instead of a true ace. He could be dominant still, but if the screwball didn't get swings and misses, he could be gone in four innings. Dice-K has up to five pitches he can use to get batters out. In other words, I think that batters will adjust to him while at the same time he has the weapons to adjust himself and continue to succeed. I do believe that's the difference betwen him, Nomo and the "fat pussy toad".
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I'm glad it didn't reach that point, Conrad! But now that I understand how to pronounce his name, I like "Dice-K". Its a phonetic spelling, it incorporates the symbol for strikeouts, and if they make up signs to hang for each of his strikeouts, it will remind folks of that old game show, Concentration.
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Happy Birthday, buddy, and thanks to Dmitry for giving me a new idea for an e-Card to my brother, whose birthday is tomorrow.
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Phone tax refund is yours to claim
Dan Gould replied to rostasi's topic in Miscellaneous - Non-Political
Thanks for posting this. I've printed it out and will keep it with my wife's business receipts. -
Sad, sad news. Condolences to his family and friends.
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With Dice-K on board, the $64,000 questions are: Where will Clemens sign? Its been reported that the Red Sox interest in Clemens is independent of their pursuit of Matsuzaka, so potentially they should still be all over him, trying to get him to return for old time's sake. It would push Wakefield to the bullpen, but I bet he'd agree to it if it meant a rotation of Schilling/Clemens/Matz/Beckett/Papelbon, which could probably win 115 games. The likelihood of that staff pitching deep into October also has to be better than the Yankees, even with Pettite. On the other hand, I suspect the Yanks will respond to this move by going all out for Roger, with a full court press of his former teammates calling him. It obviously doesn't help that the Sox let Nipper go. My best bet is that he shows he is a mercenary at heart and the Yankees will offer north of 25 million and get him. What will the Sox do for a closer? I have to wonder whether the Sox will consider parting with a young pitcher in order to get a decent closer. Maybe Hansen and Coco for the Texas guy? That would give them three Japanese pitchers. Or Coco and one of the guys in the minors for Chad Cordero? Signing a 26 year old potential ace probably makes it easier to package a pitching prospect to get that last piece, although I'd really prefer to do that after Dice-K proves he can dominate the league.
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with no attribution, but apparently another Boston outlet is saying the same thing, so presumably its accurate. Interesting that they didn't even split the difference between the reported 8 vs 11 million a year loggerhead they were at last night. Clearly Dice decided he wants to play, now. And I bet Boras sat there like a whipped puppy.
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Interesting to learn of some of his other roles. I never watched "Raymond" and was mostly only aware of Young Frankenstein and Monster's Ball which indeed was an excellent performance. RIP
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The Boston Globe is reporting that Matsuzaka is en route to Boston on John Henry's plane. So either a deal is done, or they are wrapping things up en route. Thank God. Now, he just better be worth it!
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I totally agree, Al. And six million guaranteed for Gagne? No wonder Cleveland and the Sox dropped out of it. And all he wants is one year so he can re-establish himself and then go back on the market. You better keep that closer around, not only for when Gagne's elbow blows up again, but also for when he disappears in a year for greener pastures. but if you want to unload him, can I interest you in a little Coco Crisp for your outfield collection?
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Dave, it all comes back to the injury he suffered in September. The medical staff feels that a structured, predictable throwing program - starting every fifth day, bullpen work in between - is safer for his long-term health. Personally, I think that with better management of his workload, he could remain a lights out closer and not risk his health. I remember Francona was quoted sometime how so and so was unavailable, but Papelbon will be. He basically said "he's young, he can take it". Now look what that got you. The fact is that Francona used him three days in a row many times and sometimes threatened a fourth. If they sign Dice (or Clemens) and can't fill the closer role in a trade, I think they should consider putting Paps back there for another year. It simply means that you moderate his work load, give him days off and avoid three days in a row appearances. It basically means that you have someone else you can trust to close, and you use him when necessary to keep Paps healthy. Then you can revisit the question next year, when Schilling is gone, maybe Wakefield too, and you need someone in the rotation. Also by then there should be help from the minors - Bryce Cox has looked to be the closer of the future, and of course Craig Hansen was supposed to be doing it already. Either one of them should step up by 2008 and do the job. Jennings is one of those young guys that a lot of teams salivate over because he's decent, and affordable. I think he has the potential to be a long-term replacement for Pettite and that it was a good pick up. Carlos Lee swings the big bat and will definitely help offensively, but I do think the 100 million dollars was highly excessive given his age, the length of the deal, and as you touched on, his weight issues. In fact, his defensive is crappy to begin with, so an NL team signing him to such a lengthy contract is highly questionable. He's a guy that will help the first couple of years but you'll be desperate to rid yourself of him by the middle of his deal. Of course, at that point, with the rate of salary inflation, he might still be easily moveable to an AL team so he can DH.
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Well the news is interesting out of Boston today: The Sox got their face-to-face meeting Talks have not broken down, but they are pinkie-swearing that when they get on the plane later this morning, that is it, no more negotiating. Reportedly, the latest offer was 8 mil for six years and Matz wants 11 mill for six years. This definitely surprises me, as I figured that they'd be over ten million and arguing between 10-11 mil vs 14-15. They've managed to move mid-field under 10 million, I think that's a big success. They should just split the difference at 9 or 9.5 and get it done. I guess we'll see how everyone looks at it in the light of day. You'd think, though, that after losing Damon over 3 million a year and seeing how that worked out, they wouldn't risk losing their one chance with this guy over the same amount.
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What are you talking about? Didn't they just sign a 35 year old NL pitcher? Meanwhile, I am now resigned to the fact that Boras is holding his client out and nothing will be done. That's obvious after: A) the Red Sox were not allowed to meet with Matsuzaka to try to communicate that they do indeed want him B) the Globe is reporting that the Red Sox contingent has left Boras' office; that there has been "no progress" (but that talks may continue until they get on Henry's plane tomorrow). I still want to see how Matsuzaka explains this to his countrymen, his teammates, and his team. "My agent said I shouldn't accept anything less than 18 million a year." yeah, that will really fly, when not accepting 10 or 11 means you don't go to the Majors to represent your country, your team loses out on 51 million. That's why I believe Boras is not telling his client the truth and that is he intent on holding him out and then trying to destroy the Posting system afterwards. And I will laugh my ass off when that effort fails. And if Boras is still the agent a year from now, there is no way that there will be a 51 million dollar bid again from anyone. What is the point? You know going in that any salary has to be independent of the fee, and no team can do what they want. I don't even think the Yanks would pay a 50 million dollar fee and then offer 120 million dollars salary.
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Serious traders (before Dime) all seem to insist on EAC being the start of the chain (some also expect a particular type of blank, and a slower burning speed). I always tell them "no problem", use Goldwave to extract the disc to wav format and burn from the hard drive, and not a single CD has ever had problems.
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You got me, Conrad. Either Boras isn't telling his client the truth, or his client is willing is to wait up to two more years to get every last dollar possible. But the bottom line is that every team who bid would have taken the same approach as the Red Sox - the posting bid represents a portion of the contractual value of the player - they are bidding on the right to have him under contractual control precisely because he isn't a free agent - so Boras would have these very same issues. But if he thinks that Matz gets a 100 million dollar contract separate from the posting fee, they might as well quit right now because that will never fly. And if Matz thinks that is what is he should hold out for, instead of taking a decent offer so he can compete in the majors, than I sincerely hope that he has to wait until 2008 to be a completely free agent, and that his arm falls off before then. I think Boras still has the upper hand because what do the Red Sox do if they don't sign Matsuzaka??? Go after Zito?? That will drive up Zito's price, which is already in $70 million range. They would probably being paying Zito close to what Boras is asking for what we assume to be a better, younger pitcher. Either way they are gonna have to spend $100M. I mean their hands are tied now - all of the good pitchers are gone. They will have to overpay for Zito or try and swing a deal for a pitcher. Manny as trade bait?? They tried that already. What I want to know is how is Theo going to spin this if he fails to sign Matsuzaka?? They can't use the,"They were asking for too much money", excuse when The Royals are showing Meche the money. The Royals! With the kind of money that is being thrown around this year on marginal pitching(cough, Marquis, cough) the Sox have to come up big or they can kiss that Asian market(and the playoffs) goodbye. The fact is Theo underestimated the FA market(to be fair I don't think anyone thought the market would explode like it did this off season) and now he has to pay. A lot. I have to respectfully disagree, on a number of points. First off, Boras doesn't have leverage, if in fact his client is interested in playing in the Majors now. If he is willing to wait up to two more years, suffer the embarassment of returning to a team that has already planned and announced how it will spend the posting fee, and suffer the additional cultural embarrassment of refusing a sizeable offer because his agent insisted on a gigantic offer, then Boras has leverage. But as one GM said last week, what does he have? A "mystery nation" who is bidding on his client? The FA market has exploded, yes. But Matz is not a free agent. Every team in the bidding considered it an investment on controlling his rights for six years prior to free agency. Earlier in this nutty season, I read that between signing costs, development costs, and escalating salaries through arbitration, developing a topnotch player costs something like 30-40 million dollars. That's how some teams went about determining their bid amount. The Red Sox wanted to be sure, so they bid significantly in excess of that figure. To say that it should not impact the amount a posted player is offered in salary is to live in fantasy land. You're a little out of date on Zito. He's being offered upwards of 100 million, not 70 million. But remember - when Boras says that his client is worth 100 million dollars, he says that is independent of the posting fee. He is saying that the Red Sox should spend 150 million dollars to secure his services, and that is completely insane and will never happen. Theo absolutely can spin this as "they asked for too much money" because anyone can see what Boras is asking for is outrageous. The rules are the rules: Matz isn't a free agent. Matz doesn't have any track record in the Major Leagues. Maybe he does get 120 million dollars as a totally free agent in 2008. But it is 2006. If he wants to return to Japan as an embarassment who demanded too much money, he can do it. When it comes out that the Sox offered 10-12 million a year, no one will accuse them of negotiating in bad faith or not being committed to a fair offer. At that point, while it will be difficult to make the impact they want to in Japan, it will not be as impossible as you suggest. Lastly, they will not go after Zito. The money saved will go in a nice little package for Roger Clemens, and we will find out if he wants to follow his bitch to New York or his heart to Boston. I expect he'll go for his bitch in the end ... but the Red Sox will deal with it in the end. You are probably right that they can kiss the playoffs goodbye, especially if both Matz and Clemens spurn their advances. I do however believe that this is the darkness before the dawn. Matz wants to play. He doesn't want to return, and deal with all that will entail. A deal will get done, and Matz will be on the plane sometime Wednesday (I don't think they'll necessarily leave early Wednesday morning). And one last thing: if Boras thinks that he can convince his client that it is in his best interests to take a stand and try to break out of the posting system by buying his way out, they are both fools who deserve each other. The simple fact is that if Boras "buys" Matz' freedom to be a true free agent, it will mean the end of Japanese baseball. Every star will never stick around; they will simply buy their freedom to pursue a major league career, and Japanese baseball will ultimately cease to exist, except as a feeder system to America.
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You got me, Conrad. Either Boras isn't telling his client the truth, or his client is willing is to wait up to two more years to get every last dollar possible. But the bottom line is that every team who bid would have taken the same approach as the Red Sox - the posting bid represents a portion of the contractual value of the player - they are bidding on the right to have him under contractual control precisely because he isn't a free agent - so Boras would have these very same issues. But if he thinks that Matz gets a 100 million dollar contract separate from the posting fee, they might as well quit right now because that will never fly. And if Matz thinks that is what is he should hold out for, instead of taking a decent offer so he can compete in the majors, than I sincerely hope that he has to wait until 2008 to be a completely free agent, and that his arm falls off before then.
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The 25 Funniest Analogies
Dan Gould replied to White Lightning's topic in Miscellaneous - Non-Political
Oh man, I've totally been there. That was the one I liked the best. Disappointing as it is to learn that they are all intentionally bad. That reminds me, shouldn't the "It was a dark and stormy night" awards be announced soon? -
An interesting column on Foxsports.com from their main guy - he basically says that Pettite was quite poor last year, despite his second half splits, is returning to pitch against a killer offensive division, and has serious health question marks. A nice antidote to the usual "brillian Cashman move" commentary. Also an interesting piece up on ESPN.com from a sportswriter in Japan. He's basically certain that Matz will sign on the dotted line, and bases that on just how important Dice Man is too important to his countrymen to come back now. He gives particular weight to the fact that his team has already announced what they'll do with the 51 million - X amount for salaries, and an enormous percentage for various improvements to the stadium. Imagine how the fans will feel if they lose out on all that, because Boras tells him that he should hold out for more $$. I do believe its going to come down to whether or not Matz tells Boras to get a deal done, I want to pitch in the majors NOW, or if Boras convinces him the Red Sox aren't offering nearly enough, and that he should challenge the posting system rather than accept their offer. My guess is 40% chance he signs, and if he doesn't, 100% chance Boras is fired before he tries again.
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