I had a fun conversation with one of my work colleagues when the Warriors were trailing 3-1 about whether the Thunder had significantly underachieved in the regular season*** or whether the Ws had experienced unusually bad luck during this series. (Also probably that Curry was still sub-par post-injury.) My colleague was leaning toward the former explanation, I thought the latter explanation was pretty important.
My general opinion is that in sports (as in many other facets of human life) people tend to overweight the significance of recent unusual events. FWIW, if the 4-3 series outcome is an accurate reflection of the probability of Ws winning any given game, the probability of the Thunder going 3-1 in any given 4 game stretch is nearly equal to the probability of the Warriors going 3-0. Both are ~18%, i.e. unlikely but far from impossible outcomes.