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Basically I've also found that some brands of CD-R blanks last almost forever, some don't. Only problem ... you only find out afterwards (after years) which ones will last long and longer ... I still have quite a few CD-Rs burnt by (or for) me in the second half of the 90s that still play OK. Whereas others have failed after some 10 years.  But to add another aspect to this discussion of CD-Rs becoming unplayable: As part of my haul from the estate of a deceased collector (metioned elsewhere - e.g in the jaz book thread) I recently took home a huge bunch of (real) CDs but also about 150 CD-Rs burnt for this chap by a fellow collector in (I guess) the years between 2005 and 2010, and very professionally done, including the inlays and printed labels. (At first sight they look like one of these cheapo PD label CDs.) BUT ... the labels on the earlier CD-Rs have started to peel off and are impossible to press back on - and just as impossible to remove. And it is these CD-Rs (about the initial 50 or so) of which many make nastily distorted noises when playing, as if the data are beginning to deteriorate (and some skip and jump to and fro or stop all of a sudden). But it seems the detached labels are the culprits. Don't know if it is the out-of-balance of the detached labels or the label glue penetrating into the data layer but the damage seems to be caused there. Because those where the labels are becoming detached round the edges fail most often. Whereas those among the later ones (when he seemed to have changed to a diffferent, glossier self-printed label that adheres perfectly well) that I've listened to so far do play perfectly well. At any rate, I'm seeing myself burning backup CD-Rs of the bunch before long. 

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Sure. Me too. And others that are a decade old that are unplayable. Some dyes degrade more slowly. Storage conditions (temp and humidity) also contribute to how soon they fail. They might last 10 years, 30, 50 but CDRs are inherently unstable and ultimately will all fail at some point. No one is going to be playing them a hundred years from now. Whether that's a problem or not depends on what's on them I guess. Plenty of papers on this published by the Library of Congress, NIST and so on.

Frank Sinatra: Come Fly With Me. Capitol Records LCT 6154 [US 1958]